# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/81 "2012-09-14T14:16:11Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Reagan crushed Carter 489-49 in 1980 and he crushed Mondale 525-13 in 1984. > > Romney will definitely get over 400. Would you be so kind as to go to [270towin.com](http://270towin.com) and construct a map that shows 400+ EVs for Romney and share it with us? I’m very curious as to which states you’re giving to Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/82 "2012-09-14T14:16:58Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Do me a favor. Define Marxist. > > Also, using a zero for Obama’s “O” comes across as less than serious. Do you think that helps your arguments? Childish people do childish things. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/83 "2012-09-14T14:26:13Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > By cutting taxes on the rich, Romney will retroactively grow electors. He’s a “Votes Creator”, apparently. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/84 "2012-09-14T14:30:46Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Reagan crushed Carter 489-49 in 1980 and he crushed Mondale 525-13 in 1984. > > Romney will definitely get over 400. Here is a list of the states and their number of electoral votes. Please highlight or otherwise indicate the ones that you think Romney will win that will give him more than 400 votes. Alabama 9 Alaska 3 Arizona 11 Arkansas 6 California 55 Colorado 9 Connecticut 7 Delaware 3 Florida 29 Georgia 16 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Illinois 20 Indiana 11 Iowa 6 Kansas 6 Kentucky 8 Louisiana 8 Maine 4 Maryland 10 Massachusetts 11 Michigan 16 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 Missouri 10 Montana 3 Nebraska 5 Nevada 6 New Hampshire 4 New Jersey 14 New Mexico 5 New York 29 North Carolina 15 North Dakota 3 Ohio 18 Oklahoma 7 Oregon 7 Pennsylvania 20 Rhode Island 4 South Carolina 9 South Dakota 3 Tennessee 11 Texas 38 Utah 6 Vermont 3 Virginia 13 Washington 12 West Virginia 5 Wisconsin 10 Wyoming 3 Washington, D.C. 3 Total electors 538 ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/85 "2012-09-14T14:33:28Z")
I see a vision, forming in the gloom. I see a gazillion dollars squandered over the political landscape by the Forces of Darkness, and all for naught. I see Citizens United o’erturned by the people. I see Karl Rove phoning his herd of fat cats, and being put on hold, chatting with desperate amiability with the private secretary, Mr. Whorebucks cannot come to the phone right now… Joy. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/86 "2012-09-14T14:52:53Z")
In today’s episode of Everybody Hates Mitt, an Iowa Republican elector has resigned his post, stating that he could not in good conscience cast his electoral vote for Romney should he carry Iowa. ---
**Author:** ![CapnPitt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/edb3f5/32.png) [@CapnPitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CapnPitt)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/87 "2012-09-14T14:54:36Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > Of course he’s a Communist. He would allow the top marginal income tax rate to rise back up to 39.6%, which is a core belief of Marxism. I don’t care who you are…that’s just funny. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/88 "2012-09-14T14:55:13Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > 0bama admits attending socialist conferences and reading Marxist literature. So? So did Father Quixote. And George Orwell! [QUOTE=Graham Greene, Monsignor Quixote] “I don’t follow you, monsignor.” “When I was a student in Madrid I was encouraged to read a little in your holy book. One must know one’s enemy.” [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Trion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ccd318/32.png) [@Trion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trion)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/89 "2012-09-14T14:56:51Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > In today’s episode of Everybody Hates Mitt, an Iowa Republican elector has resigned his post, stating that he could not in good conscience cast his electoral vote for Romney should he carry Iowa. Her post. It’s a lady person, IIRC. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/90 "2012-09-14T15:01:30Z")
> [@Trion](#): > > Her post. It’s a lady person, IIRC. My mistake and apologies. [Her story.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/14/melinda-wadsley-iowa-gop-ron-paul_n_1883451.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012) ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/91 "2012-09-14T15:26:33Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Carter and Reagan were neck and neck and if anything Carter had a slight edge until the debate, which was just days before the election and which completely reversed the direction of the election. That’s because John Anderson had siphoned off a lot of Reagan’s support in the early part of the campaign. As the election approached, about 3/4 of Anderson supporters jumped ship for Reagan. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/92 "2012-09-14T15:29:23Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Would you be so kind as to go to [270towin.com](http://270towin.com) and construct a map that shows 400+ EVs for Romney and share it with us? I’m very curious as to which states you’re giving to Romney. But…but…_Reagan_. By the same token, Dewey was a shoe-in, but Truman won anyway. I think I’ll go with that phony analogy instead. ---
**Author:** ![Shark\_Sandwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f04885/32.png) [@Shark\_Sandwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shark_Sandwich)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/93 "2012-09-14T16:16:44Z")
Romney is already saying that during their debates, the President is going to “say things that aren’t true” about him, but he’s not sure if he’s going to waste time addressing the lies, or talking about what he wants to talk about. If Romney doesn’t address the lies he anticipates, that’s a GREAT strategy for reeling in the independent or “on the fence” votes. When Obama starts beating you up on tax returns and offshore investments, ignore them and start talking about “Obamacare” and tax cuts for “job creators.” [CNN article.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/14/romney-president-will-lie-in-debates/?hpt=hp_t3) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/94 "2012-09-14T16:20:33Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > But…but…_Reagan_. By the same token, Dewey was a shoe-in, but Truman won anyway. I think I’ll go with that phony analogy instead. There wasn’t as much national polling in those days and it was very expensive. Dewey seemed to be so far ahead that the polling was shut down about two weeks before the election among other amazing errors. They also eliminated all undecideds because a 1944 poll that showed that nobody changed their minds. That was, unknowingly, a bizarre outlier. You can see that and much more in this very interesting paper. [US Election 1948: The First Great Controversy about Polls, Media, and Social Science by Hans L Zetterberg](http://www.zetterberg.org/Lectures/l041115.htm) > [@](#): > > In their 400 page report (Mosteller et al. 1949), the committee concluded that the pollsters had overreached their ability to pick the winner in the 1948 election; the possibility of a close election was obvious from their own data and the level of measurement errors in past elections. > > ``` > A supposition of the committee was that in the last two weeks of the campaign when the interviewing after Crossley, Gallup, and Roper had completed their interviews, there had been a net shift to Truman of two to three percentage points. The pollsters had missed the necessity of measuring preferences just before the election. The Committee, however, would not flatly say that Crossley and Gallup had been right two weeks before the election. (Roper was too far off; he could not reasonably have been right a fortnight before.) The committee’s conclusion on the last weeks’ shift was "tentative." > > The committee voiced the suspicion that the pollsters’ use of quota sampling rather than probability sampling had allowed interviewers to select somewhat more educated and well-off people within their assigned quotas. This biased their samples against Truman, who appealed more to the lower classes than Dewey. > > The pollsters had assumed that the undecided at the time of the interview would vote in the same way as those who had already made up their minds. This was an unproven assumption, and may not have been the case in the 1948 electorate. > > The pollsters had no certain way of deciding who would stay home on Election Day and who would go and cast a vote. > > ``` Of course, the author of that paper is from Stockholm, which makes him an actual socialist. I just mention that so everything he says can be properly discounted. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/95 "2012-09-14T16:21:19Z")
> [@Shark\_Sandwich](#): > > Romney is already saying that during their debates, the President is going to “say things that aren’t true” about him, but he’s not sure if he’s going to waste time addressing the lies, or talking about what he wants to talk about. > > If Romney doesn’t address the lies he anticipates, that’s a GREAT strategy for reeling in the independent or “on the fence” votes. When Obama starts beating you up on tax returns and offshore investments, ignore them and start talking about “Obamacare” and tax cuts for “job creators.” > > [CNN article.](http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/14/romney-president-will-lie-in-debates/?hpt=hp_t3) That’s called “preemptive capitulation”. Before anything happens, say the other guy will lie and therefore: WIN! ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/96 "2012-09-14T16:27:18Z")
Let me just say how incredibly shocked…shocked, I say…that **klaatu** has not returned to this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/97 "2012-09-14T16:27:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Carter and Reagan were neck and neck and if anything Carter had a slight edge until the debate, which was just days before the election and which completely reversed the direction of the election. Not exactly. Some individual polls had Carter up mid-1980, but the average never had Reagan behind after late May. And after the GOP convention Reagan got a huge bounce, followed by a smaller one for Carter - then Reagan led by a small margin until the debates when he swung up through election day. [http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/09/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/](http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/08/09/what-really-happened-in-the-1980-presidential-campaign/) ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/98 "2012-09-14T16:34:33Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > I see a vision, forming in the gloom. I see a gazillion dollars squandered over the political landscape by the Forces of Darkness, and all for naught. Well, it does create jobs . . . ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/99 "2012-09-14T16:40:09Z")
I actually find myself half-wishing that Obama wins the electoral vote but Romney wins the popular vote. The cognitive dissonance would make Pub heads explode! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![CapnPitt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/edb3f5/32.png) [@CapnPitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CapnPitt)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/100 "2012-09-14T16:40:32Z")
This isn’t directed at anyone in particular but in all the Reagan/Carter comparisons it seems to me that everyone forgets that the hostages in Iran were no small issue. Yes, stagflation and “malaise” were big too, but it’s not always just the “economy, stupid.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=6)