# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/101 "2012-09-14T16:51:43Z")
I’m really disappointed **Klaatu** and **moonshot925** can’t be bothered to share with us how they think the Electoral College vote will break down by state to reach the ridiculous numbers they both have suggested. I could really use the laugh. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/102 "2012-09-14T16:53:04Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > What I find remarkable in all the posts predicting a Romney win are these common factors: > 1- Vitriol against Obama > 2- Not one word in support of Romney’s character > 3- Not one word in support of Romney’s policies Exactly! In order to use the economy for their advantage the Republicans need to convince the voting public of the following 1. The economy is in bad shape 2. This is because of things Obama has done 3. They would do better because unlike Obama they would… The first of these is easy for them to do, and they are working hard on the second, but they haven’t made any serious attempt to address the third.. If the Repbulicans had some new ideas as to how to fix the economy (or heck even some old ideas with a good track record), I might be worried. But austerity, tax cuts for the rich and unspecified deregulation is not a very convincing plan. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/103 "2012-09-14T16:58:59Z")
All I can say is, come election night, if I hear that Florida has gone for Obama, I can go to bed early, knowing he has won the election. (As a political junkie, I won’t do so, but I could…) According to every poll I have read, there are only a very few Electoral College ways Romney can win, but many, many ways Obama can remain in office. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/104 "2012-09-14T17:03:03Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’m really disappointed **Klaatu** and **moonshot925** can’t be bothered to share with us how they think the Electoral College vote will break down by state to reach the ridiculous numbers they both have suggested. **moonshot925** said 400 EVs, which can be explained only with magic. **Klaatu** was said 300 even though he made the Reagan/Carter comparison. I don’t think that’ll happen either but it’s less absurd. ---
**Author:** ![Critical1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3e96dc/32.png) [@Critical1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Critical1)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/105 "2012-09-14T17:13:00Z")
Man I was hoping there was someplace to place bets on this, I have a couple grand I could stand to turn into more for free. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/106 "2012-09-14T17:15:11Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > **moonshot925** said 400 EVs, which can be explained only with magic. **Klaatu** was said 300 even though he made the Reagan/Carter comparison. I don’t think that’ll happen either but it’s less absurd. 300 is less absurd than 400, but it would still be entertaining and maybe even instructive to see what assumptions **Klaatu** is making to come up with his number. I would also love to know how he has come to " understand the level of dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies around the country" so much better than the rest of us, given his disdain for polls. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/107 "2012-09-14T17:15:41Z")
The [electoral map at RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) would give Romney 301 votes if he won every single tossup state. 400 is impossible even if you add in every leaning Democratic state. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/108 "2012-09-14T17:23:08Z")
“Everyone i know, every paper i read, every website i frequent and the only news channel that tells it like it is agree with me, Romney can’t lose!” ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/109 "2012-09-14T17:23:21Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > Romney will take over 300 in the EC. You guys have blindered yourselves. You can’t see the forest for the trees. What you perceive as gaffes are not considered as such by most conservatives. > > It is about anybody but Obama. Nothing has changed since the GOP landslide victory in 2010. > > 538, Nate Silver, Vegas odds, whatever do not matter. You do not understand the level of dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies around the country. In your insular, poll-driven microcosm of liberal elitism, you have lost the bigger picture. > > It will be like Reagan/Carter. How is it possible to read this without falling over, rolling on the floor laughing? I’ll look forward to bumping this post in early November. And laughing more. ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/110 "2012-09-14T17:23:33Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Reagan crushed Carter 489-49 in 1980 and he crushed Mondale 525-13 in 1984. > > Romney will definitely get over 400. That’s your logic? ---
**Author:** ![lance\_strongarm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/87869e/32.png) [@lance\_strongarm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lance_strongarm)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/111 "2012-09-14T17:24:37Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > How is it possible to read this without falling over, rolling on the floor laughing? > > I’ll look forward to bumping this post in early November. And laughing more. I think it’s parody, so don’t get too excited. ---
**Author:** ![Jenaroph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e8c25b/32.png) [@Jenaroph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jenaroph)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/112 "2012-09-14T17:25:05Z")
> [@CandidGamera](#): > > I would love to see these folks predicting a Romney landslide put their SDMB posting privileges where their mouths are : If you’re wrong, leave and don’t come back. I’m fairly confident that will happen anyway, without exacting a promise from them. ---
**Author:** ![Knorf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/58956e/32.png) [@Knorf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knorf)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/113 "2012-09-14T17:41:29Z")
> [@lance\_strongarm](#): > > I think it’s parody, so don’t get too excited. Poe’s Law in action again? But moonshot at least seems sincere. > [@moonshot925](#): > > Reagan crushed Carter 489-49 in 1980 and he crushed Mondale 525-13 in 1984. > > Romney will definitely get over 400. That is even more bizarre than the OP, truly, and it’s very hard to wrap one’s mind around the claim that Romney has the kind of inspirational personal appeal that Reagan had, in order to justify such an upset. But that post is in keeping with the partisanship of [almost every post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/search.php?searchid=8535547) he’s ever made on the SDMB since he joined. If moonshot is faking it … well … there might a useful “t” word which describes such behavior. Or, is he just trying to make conservatives look … uh … somewhat confused about the facts? You know, to make them look bad? Very, very bad. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/114 "2012-09-14T17:42:31Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The [electoral map at RealClearPolitics](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html) would give Romney 301 votes if he won every single tossup state. Yes it would. I also find it laughable all of those states will go to Romney. I know you realize that but I would enjoy hearing **Klaatu’s** reasoning of how Romney could pull that off. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/115 "2012-09-14T17:46:03Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yes it would. I also find it laughable all of those states will go to Romney. I know you realize that but I would enjoy hearing **Klaatu’s** reasoning of how Romney could pull that off. It’s not laughable, it’s just unlikely. But who knows? Suppose a major scandal erupts nex week and Obama loses five points of support across the board; that would become a very likely electoral map. 400 electoral votes is laughable. What, is California going to flip? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/116 "2012-09-14T17:47:25Z")
> [@Knorf](#): > > Poe’s Law in action again? But moonshot at least seems sincere. > That is even more bizarre than the OP, truly, and it’s very hard to wrap one’s mind around the claim that Romney has the kind of inspirational personal appeal that Reagan had, in order to justify such an upset. But that post is in keeping with the partisanship of [almost every post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/search.php?searchid=8535547) he’s ever made on the SDMB since he joined. > > If moonshot is faking it … well … there might a useful “t” word which describes such behavior. Or, is he just trying to make conservatives look … uh … somewhat confused about the facts? You know, to make them look bad? Very, very bad. [Maybe . . .](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=664713) ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/117 "2012-09-14T17:49:42Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yes it would. I also find it laughable all of those states will go to Romney. I know you realize that but I would enjoy hearing **Klaatu’s** reasoning of how Romney could pull that off. I’ll try: suppress the vote. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/118 "2012-09-14T18:00:04Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I’ll try: suppress the vote. That’s actually been discussed within the last day over in [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=665411). [Nate Silver’s best estimates](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/) are that even the strictest voter ID laws / voter suppression attempts probably won’t depress turnout by more than around 2 1/2%, which probably won’t yield more than about a 1 percentage point bump for Romney’s share. If the state in question is very close anyway, it might make a difference; otherwise, it’s unlikely to meaningfully affect the results. ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/119 "2012-09-14T18:02:32Z")
As much as I’d like to see you turn out to be right, **Klaatu** , I don’t see a landslide happening. I think we’ll have a repeat of 2000. I think Romney has a decent shot, so far, anyway. I _hope_ this country is bright enough to vote out Obama but I’m losing faith that it is. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/120 "2012-09-14T18:11:34Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > It’s not laughable, it’s just unlikely. But who knows? Suppose a major scandal erupts nex week and Obama loses five points of support across the board; that would become a very likely electoral map. > [@bup](#): > > I’ll try: suppress the vote. Yes, **RickJay** that could happen though it is unlikely. Same with the voter suppression although it appears that may not be as effective as was hoped. Reading the OP I don’t get the impression either of those are what motivated **Klaatu** to state how “blindered” anyone is to think Obama will win. The mention of the GOP victories of 2010 and the dismissal of any polls indicate this is an individual who just can’t fathom any result short of Obama being crushed just because he is Obama. “It will be like Reagan/Carter.” That’s laughable. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=7)