# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Twoflower](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/twoflower/32/22_2.png) [@Twoflower](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Twoflower)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/141 "2012-09-14T22:15:19Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Aha, I think I figured out one possible source of all this Republican optimism: [this.](http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-possible-landslide-indicated-by-polling-data-released-today) Love the methodology: [QUOTE= Loony right-wing web site] For each state, the polling data listed for that state at Real Clear Politics is viewed, and when obviously skewed media polls are removed, the remaining credible polls are averaged. If that average shows Obama at 50.1 percent or better, that state is shaded blue for Obama. Any result below that for Obama, and the state is shaded red for Romney. This reflects just about all the undecided vote going to Romney by the time voters cast their ballots in the actual election. [/QUOTE] I presume “obviously skewed media polls” = those favoring Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/142 "2012-09-14T22:36:05Z")
What’s cute is that the author gives states like Nevada and Virginia, where Obama is leading Romney by margins like 49-46 or 48-44, as Romney states because Obama is polling less than 50%. The math is not strong with this one. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/143 "2012-09-14T22:46:22Z")
…I keep hearing Bullwinkle J. Moose saying “Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!” ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/144 "2012-09-14T22:56:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What reversal? Was Carter consistently beating Reagan in the polls through September? (Serious question, my memories of the 1980 election are hazy.) > [@RickJay](#): > > Carter and Reagan were neck and neck and if anything Carter had a slight edge until the debate, which was just days before the election and which completely reversed the direction of the election. I don’t remember the polls at the time – and I understand that polling techniques have been vastly refined just in the past 10 years even – but I do recall how pathetic Carter was constantly portrayed in the press. The way they went to town over his Hubert Horatio Hornblower gaffe, for example. And he took a lot of heat for the failed Iran hostage-rescue bid, which may have added to any general frustration he felt. (I voted for Carter in both 1976 and 1980.) Obama is not being portrayed in the media as pathetic, that’s for certain. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/145 "2012-09-14T23:01:00Z")
> [@Truman\_Burbank](#): > > …I keep hearing Bullwinkle J. Moose saying “Hey Rocky! Watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!” “That’s not your hat, Bullwinkle!” ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/146 "2012-09-14T23:04:18Z")
I often wonder if, in his heart of hearts, Romney truly believes he’s going to win. Or if he knows what will happen but dares not do anything but go through the motions at this point and hope for some sort of 11th-hour miracle. I’ve had this musing before, with Republicans (McCain, Dole) and Democrats (Mondale, Dukakis) alike. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/147 "2012-09-14T23:05:50Z")
If you look at the [this graph in the middle of the page](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/14/1131876/-Romney-problem-34-554-Voter-attitudes-have-hardened) you will see that Reagan had a slight lead thought August and September and much of October. Reagan however had a lead throughout that summer though of much more. Finally a major point is that about 20% were neither for Carter or Reagan, John Anderson accounted for some of that, but Reagan ended up with 50% and carter with 41% so there was a very large portion of undecided right up to the end. That does not appear to be the case this year. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/148 "2012-09-14T23:19:14Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > I would consider 0bama to be more of a Neo-Marxist, in that he may not do all the things a traditional marxist would do, however, he still supports the main foundations under which marxism is built which is greater government control, more regulations and the destruction of property of rights and freedoms, although he would have you believe you would be healthier as a result. > > 0bama admits . . . reading Marxist literature. I find this juxtaposition deeply amusing. Thank you. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/149 "2012-09-14T23:21:53Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > Romney will definitely get over 400. Bwahahaha Willard totally lacks judgement and character. More and more Americans are realizing that every week. EC Map: [http://www.270towin.com/2012\_election\_predictions.php?mapid=xHh](http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=xHh) Giving every single swing state to Willard still leaves Barack with 201 electoral votes, making Willard’s absolute ceiling 337. I have been saying for about two years now that the loser in this election will receive at least 45% of the popular vote. America is very divided. Baring some kind of shocking surprise, it is obvious there will be no landslide in either direction. Willard can still win. His side will spend $2 billion and he could possibly shine in the debates, but there just cannot be a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/150 "2012-09-14T23:23:11Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > 0bama admits attending socialist conferences and reading Marxist literature. Cite for the conference, please. And since I read your posts, does that mean I’m a right-winger? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/151 "2012-09-14T23:53:30Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > Exactly! In order to use the economy for their advantage the Republicans need to convince the voting public of the following > > 1. The economy is in bad shape > 2. This is because of things Obama has done > 3. They would do better because unlike Obama they would… > > The first of these is easy for them to do, and they are working hard on the second, but they haven’t made any serious attempt to address the third.. If the Repbulicans had some new ideas as to how to fix the economy (or heck even some old ideas with a good track record), I might be worried. But austerity, tax cuts for the rich and unspecified deregulation is not a very convincing plan. It is if you think government-meddling-is-the-problem-in-the-first-place – but Romney had that vote sewn up before he started, and it ain’t enough to win. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2012, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/152 "2012-09-14T23:56:38Z")
> [@BDBoop](#): > > Oh, I agree! But the Republicans, as Clinton pointed out, are saying “He couldn’t do it it in four years, give it back to us.” > > Also, in a fair nod to the other side, ALL the damage didn’t just take place between 2000-2008. But, I’ve never yet heard even a half-assed RW argument for putting any of it on Clinton, or even Carter, and before that you’d have to go back to LBJ. (Though, actually, I **have** encountered [a few](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/New_Deal) half-assed RW arguments for putting it on FDR.) ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/153 "2012-09-15T00:02:55Z")
You guys know that the OP has not returned to defend his thesis, right? That post was the last one he has made. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/154 "2012-09-15T00:03:05Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Cite for the conference, please. And since I read your posts, does that mean I’m a right-winger? I think he’s counting the DNC as a “socialist conference.” ---
**Author:** ![Morgyn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/morgyn/32/3041_2.png) [@Morgyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgyn)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/155 "2012-09-15T00:14:16Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Even if you think Romney’s going to win and the people here can’t see it, there really is not a poll anywhere that suggests he’ll win by a landslide. Particularly if you look at the state level it’s hard to see how a really lopsided win would happen. Romney’s already giving up on some states that he’d been hoping to swing his way, like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin. Which doesn’t mean he can’t win or that he’s giving up, but if he’s not winning states like that - nevermind that he’s giving up on them two months before the election - it’s hard to see how he makes his way to an overwhelming blowout. I don’t know that he’s given up on Pennsylvania. I live here, and I’ve gotten at least one Romney robocall a day for the last week. Pretty damned annoying. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Know\_Nothing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/f04885/32.png) [@I\_Know\_Nothing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Know_Nothing)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/156 "2012-09-15T00:24:38Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Aha, I think I figured out one possible source of all this Republican optimism: [this.](http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-possible-landslide-indicated-by-polling-data-released-today) Not only that, but as it says later in the article,“Strong performances in the other two debates could easily double that lead for Romney.” Eventually he’s going to have the whole map colored red. rotfl That one definitely deserves a bookmark. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/157 "2012-09-15T00:26:45Z")
The debates could be tricky. It’s _possible_ that something could trip up Obama in the debates, some horrible sound bite that could haunt him that could cause him to lose a close election. I doubt it though. The other killer would be this latest Islamic rioting to spin totally out of control to the point of a couple of major civil wars going on. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/158 "2012-09-15T00:56:37Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You guys know that the OP has not returned to defend his thesis, right? That post was the last one he has made. Pretty sure there are rules pertaining to that sort of thing, i.e., deliberately stirring up shit and then disappearing. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/159 "2012-09-15T01:45:52Z")
Don’t accuse me of trolling. I stated an opinion. I am not required to debate here. The fact that the vast majority of posters reading it are liberals does not make me a troll. I simply believe no matter what all these polls say, Romney will win, and I stated the reasons why. The fact that you do not like it is too fucking bad. And if Obama wins, I will bump this thread the day after the election and take whatever jeers and flames you wish to throw and loudly proclaim I was wrong. If Romney wins, I will thumb my nose at you and fart in your general direction. ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/160 "2012-09-15T01:49:00Z")
Would you care to point to _anything_ that might be considered “evidence” supporting your “belief”? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=9)