# Prediction: Romney landslide win **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 14, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655 "2012-09-14T02:26:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/161 "2012-09-15T01:52:53Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > . . . If Romney wins, I will thumb my nose at you and fart in your general direction. Klaatu flatus nicto. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/162 "2012-09-15T01:56:50Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > I simply believe no matter what all these polls say, Romney will win, and I stated the reasons why. What, this? > [@Klaatu](#): > > You do not understand the level of dissatisfaction with Obama’s policies around the country. No, **Klaatu,** that would be you. If you wanted to understand the level, etc., you would pay attention to the polls; they’re a better guide to it than the like-minded folk you probably hang out with, and nobody since the 1960s, at least, ever made a good political call by dismissing them as you do. **That’s** “insular.” You also apparently do not understand that, of the considerable dissatisfaction with Obama that does indeed exist, a great deal comes from his **left;** but that’s a vote he needn’t worry about losing, as no Nader or Kucinich is running this year. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/163 "2012-09-15T02:09:35Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > You also apparently do not understand that, of the considerable dissatisfaction with Obama that does indeed exist, a great deal comes from his **left;** but that’s a vote he needn’t worry about losing, as no Nader or Kucinich is running this year. [As **Vinyl Turnip** put it:](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=15083141&postcount=8) > [@](#): > > The Right hates him for being a hardcore tax-and-spend liberal with an old-school socialist agenda who wants to soak the rich to benefit the layabout poor, muzzle Wall Street, gut the military, weaken our position on the world stage, negotiate with our enemies, disengage from Israel, and outlaw the private ownership of firearms. The Left hates him because none of that is true. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/164 "2012-09-15T02:13:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > What, this? > > No, **Klaatu,** that would be you. If you wanted to understand the level, etc., you would pay attention to the polls; they’re a better guide to it than the like-minded folk you probably hang out with, and nobody since the 1960s, at least, ever made a good political call by dismissing them as you do. **That’s** “insular.” > > You also apparently do not understand that, of the considerable dissatisfaction with Obama that does indeed exist, a great deal comes from his **left;** but that’s a vote he needn’t worry about losing, as no Nader or Kucinich is running this year. No point in responding. He’s already given us a hearty ‘fuck you’ and disappeared again, with no intention of debating. I suggest we all do the same. Bye-bye. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/165 "2012-09-15T02:13:44Z")
I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. I also believe there is sentient life somewhere else in the universe but I have no evidence for that. Even googling romney landslide victory doesn’t come up with much except Morris’s statements and and an interesting EC vote model from the University of Colorado:[Electoral College Model Predicts Romney Will Win Big In 2012 And Its Been Right Since 1980 - TheBlaze](http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-college-model-predicts-romney-will-win-big-in-2012-and-its-been-right-since-1980/) It is simply a belief. Not defensible. But judging from the number of responses, I get the impression many of you aren’t as sure of an Obama victory as you come across as, polls notwithstanding. I just sense an undercurrent of fear among the Dem base. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/166 "2012-09-15T02:14:49Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. Fear not, for we come in peace and bring facts. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/167 "2012-09-15T02:21:26Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > Don’t accuse me of trolling. I stated an opinion. I am not required to debate here. Out of curiosity, why would you start a thread on a forum dedicated to political debates and not be expected to engage in any discussion of it? To me, that’s like driving to the beach, putting up a tent, going inside, and zipping it up. Then as people come by and say, “WTF is with the dude who is sitting inside an opaque tent on the beach?” it is odd to say, “I don’t have to answer your questions! All I want to do is sit in my tent!” It seems to me that you have really stated only one reason for why Romney will win: people underestimate the dislike of Obama. However, opinion polls for the last two years have consistently shown that the country is evenly divided on his approval rating. Your statement that you do not believe the polls is simply a perfect example of a circular argument: I do not believe the polls because they are wrong; the polls are wrong so I don’t believe them. So, I ask the same question again: why posit a debate on a forum dedicated to debates when you have no interest in starting a debate? ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/168 "2012-09-15T02:32:26Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. I also believe there is sentient life somewhere else in the universe but I have no evidence for that. > > Even googling romney landslide victory doesn’t come up with much except Morris’s statements and and an interesting EC vote model from the University of Colorado:[http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-college-model-predicts-romney-will-win-big-in-2012-and-its-been-right-since-1980/](http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-college-model-predicts-romney-will-win-big-in-2012-and-its-been-right-since-1980/) > > It is simply a belief. Not defensible. But judging from the number of responses, I get the impression many of you aren’t as sure of an Obama victory as you come across as, polls notwithstanding. > > I just sense an undercurrent of fear among the Dem base. If you get your information from Glen Beck’s website, you really don’t have any idea of what the sentiments of the country as a whole are. Same for Dick Morris. P.S. That vote model has been pretty much dismantled by the pros. There is a thread about it in this forum. P.P.S. My post is not intended as a personal slam, but as a factual statement. The Blaze is 100% far right wing content. It has no relationship to the feelings of the nation in general, just a very small part of it. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/169 "2012-09-15T02:37:29Z")
Sigh. Ok, I will try. Let’s use this model I mentioned earlier. [http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/08/22/analysis-election-factors-points-romney-win-university-colorado-study-says) I haven’t looked into this model deeply, but will try to post later in the weekend. Let’s see, I will debate that this model, using economic indicators, is more accurate than more traditional models/polling. If someone can rephrase this better, thank you. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/170 "2012-09-15T02:38:21Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Aha, I think I figured out one possible source of all this Republican optimism: [this.](http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-possible-landslide-indicated-by-polling-data-released-today) And yet, even in that scenario, Romney’s at 353 - 47 shy of the 400+ predicted in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/171 "2012-09-15T02:39:38Z")
I am not into Glen Beck and the model didn’t come from the blaze. ---
**Author:** ![Enginerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/bcef8e/32.png) [@Enginerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enginerd)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/172 "2012-09-15T02:49:28Z")
There’s been a lot of discussion of that Colorado model, especially as it compares to Nate Silver’s work, in [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=664007) thread - that would be a good place to start. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/173 "2012-09-15T05:17:01Z")
I have spent two hours trying to debunk that model and haven’t seen anything except lame crap from Silver and some debunking of Silvers own models. There is not a lot of debunking of that model. seriously. If it was that bad there would be more. In other words i was trying to debunk myself, but to say that the model “Has been thoroughly debunked by the pros” is misleading, ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/174 "2012-09-15T05:24:25Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > I have spent two hours trying to debunk that model and haven’t seen anything except lame crap from Silver and some debunking of Silvers own models. > > There is not a lot of debunking of that model. seriously. If it was that bad there would be more. > > In other words i was trying to debunk myself, but to say that the model “Has been thoroughly debunked by the pros” is misleading, [Here’s one.](http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/106499/new-prediction-model-doesnt-prove-romney-will-win#) Doesn’t exactly “debunk” the model but does show its track-record to be completely meh. > [@](#): > > There are dozens of political science models. Some are good, some are bad. Some say Obama will win. Others say he will lose. Is there any reason to believe that this model is any better or worse than the others? At the very least, there’s not much reason to assume it’s any better than the competition. The press release reveals it’s predicted every election since 1980. If it hadn’t, that would be pretty embarrassing. In the eight presidential elections since 1980, six have been 7+ point blowouts in the two party vote. So all you need is a model that gets 2000 and 2004 right without missing the other six elections. Call it 2-0, in my book. > > I can even prove that it’s not difficult: there are a million other political science models running around with a similar claim to accuracy over the last eight elections. And do those models point toward a clear Romney or Obama victory? In the aggregate, the political science models point toward a competitive race, but there are models showing a clear victory for either side. The Colorado model has a mirror-image counter by Drew Lizner of Emory University, who gives Obama a 99 percent chance of victory. The FiveThirtyEight model integrates economic variables and it finds Obama with a modest advantage, and so does a model built by John Sides, Lynn Vavreck, Seth Hill for the Washington Post. The famous Abramowitz “Time For a Change” model points toward an extraordinarily tight race. So, contrary to popular belief, the fundamentals do not clearly point to a victory for either side. And not only do the economic-based models show a tight race, Obama’s approval rating is at about 48 percent, which most agree is a product of fundamentals like economic performance. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/175 "2012-09-15T05:34:18Z")
> [@Klaatu](#): > > I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. Faith based political debate? Fine; I think that Romney is actually a lizard alien from Rigel in a rubber suit. I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/176 "2012-09-15T05:45:29Z")
Well, a blog piece from The New Republic is not exactly going to sway me, or you in all reality. The point is I can’t debunk 538 and you can’t debunk this UC Boulder model. We don’t know. But I still stand by my prediction. I don’t have to give evidence. And neither do you. What if I posted an OP that said “Obama will win with 300 EC votes” How would you react? The thread would be “Maybe 299 or 303 but Romney is screwed la la la” But when I post the opposite, it’s “You are full of shit, cite, show us proof blah blah” how does that work? ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/177 "2012-09-15T05:54:58Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Faith based political debate? > > Fine; I think that Romney is actually a lizard alien from Rigel in a rubber suit. I have no evidence. It is simply a belief. Ha! I thought that might draw you in here. But the credence that I give to anything you post is far outweighed by the disdain and incredulity I have for anything you actually say. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/178 "2012-09-15T05:55:25Z")
Romney > [@](#): > > …secretly admires Snooki on MTV’s “Jersey Shore.” … [http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-owns-loving-snooki-takes-campaign-daytime-tv-200630208--election.html](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-owns-loving-snooki-takes-campaign-daytime-tv-200630208--election.html) Any further questions? ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/179 "2012-09-15T05:59:39Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Romney > > [http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-owns-loving-snooki-takes-campaign-daytime-tv-200630208--election.html](http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/romney-owns-loving-snooki-takes-campaign-daytime-tv-200630208--election.html) > > Any further questions? I guess that says it all… ---
**Author:** ![Klaatu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/e0b2c6/32.png) [@Klaatu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Klaatu)\ **Post date:** [September 15, 2012, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655/180 "2012-09-15T06:02:42Z")
Gort tells me we will have to take off and nuke you from orbit, he says it’s the only way to be sure… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-romney-landslide-win/634655.md?page=10)