# Prediction: Trump wins re-election in 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 6, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200 "2017-02-06T23:14:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/61 "2017-02-07T15:47:28Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > A landslide is in the eye of the beholder. It can be an EC landslide, or a popular vote landslide. I’d say Trump was about one Minnesota (or a second Clinton physical collapse/coughing fit) away from an Electoral College landslide. I fully admit Trump’s win was not a landslide, but it was oh so close to one. That’s just ridiculous. In terms of electoral votes, this was a closer win than most US Presidential elections. If this one is close to a landslide, then the majority of US Presidential elections (at least for the past century, IIRC) have been landslides – and if most elections are “landslides”, then the term seems to be pretty meaningless. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/62 "2017-02-07T15:48:40Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > You don’t measure the size of the victory from 50%. You measure it from the expectations. In those terms it was a landslide. LOL. Then by this measure, if Trump had _lost_, but very closely, then he would have won by a landslide. No, landslides aren’t and have never been about “expectations” – they’ve been about how large the victory was, in raw terms. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/63 "2017-02-07T15:53:56Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > You don’t measure the size of the victory from 50%. You measure it from the expectations. In those terms it was a landslide. I don’t know anybody, other than politicians who claim any victory as being a total victory, who measures a landslide victory this way. For example: > **[Landslide victory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landslide_victory)** > > A landslide victory is an election result in which the victorious candidate or party wins by an overwhelming margin. The term became popular in the 1800s to describe a victory in which the opposition is "buried", similar to the way in which a geological landslide buries whatever is in its path. A landslide victory is the opposite of an electoral wipeout; a party which wins in a landslide typically inflicts a wipeout on its opposition. What constitutes a landslide varies by the type of elec Local... I even did a search on Google.Scholar and not a single academic paper I could found used the term landslide victory in the way you suggest. A google search for “political science landslide victory” finds a few unofficial definitions of a win by 15-20 (or more) percentage points and none that suggest to measure it in the way you propose. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/64 "2017-02-07T15:59:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > LOL. Then by this measure, if Trump had _lost_, but very closely, then he would have won by a landslide. > > No, landslides aren’t and have never been about “expectations” – they’ve been about how large the victory was, in raw terms. No, a loss is a loss. A win is a win. But how big the win is would be measured from expectations, not from 50/50. The US hockey team win way back when was huge. But it was just by one point. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/65 "2017-02-07T16:04:41Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > No, a loss is a loss. A win is a win. But how big the win is would be measured from expectations, not from 50/50. The US hockey team win way back when was huge. But it was just by one point. The term you are looking for is an “upset victory” not landslide. I will agree that Trump’s win was an upset victory. > **[Upset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upset)** > > Upset may refer to: ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/66 "2017-02-07T16:06:07Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > The term you are looking for is an “upset victory” not landslide. I will agree that Trump’s win was an upset victory. > > [Upset - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upset) Don’t care for exact term. It was a huge victory. Or “yuuuge” if you prefer. There is absolutely no doubt about it. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/67 "2017-02-07T16:07:20Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Don’t care for exact term. It was a huge victory. Or “yuuuge” if you prefer. There is absolutely no doubt about it. I love Trump supporters. You show them they are factually wrong and they say they don’t care about facts only how they I perceive it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/68 "2017-02-07T16:09:20Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Don’t care for exact term. It was a huge victory. Or “yuuuge” if you prefer. There is absolutely no doubt about it. NO DOUBT about it! If Trump says it was a landslide, then it was, no matter the actual numbers or actual history. I totally get it! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/69 "2017-02-07T16:09:22Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > No, a loss is a loss. A win is a win. But how big the win is would be measured from expectations, not from 50/50. The US hockey team win way back when was huge. But it was just by one point. Yeah, that’s why we have phrases like “an upset win”. Landslide \<\> upset win. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/70 "2017-02-07T16:09:23Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > I love Trump supporters. You show them they are factually wrong and they say they don’t care about facts only how they I perceive it. You understand that there is no “factually” where the discussion is about perception? “Landslide” is not a fact, it’s perception. “Huge” is not a fact, it’s perception. “Win” on the other hand is not perception. It’s fact. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/71 "2017-02-07T16:10:08Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > You understand that there is no “factually” where the discussion is about perception? > > “Landslide” is not a fact, it’s perception. “Huge” is not a fact, it’s perception. “Win” on the other hand is not perception. It’s fact. You understand that you are using the English language and that words have meaning right? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/72 "2017-02-07T16:12:37Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > You understand that you are using the English language and that words have meaning right? Yes. Look up “perception”. And “fact”. And the difference between the two. ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/73 "2017-02-07T16:14:55Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Yes. Look up “perception”. And “fact”. And the difference between the two. Will you acknowledge that Trump’s win was not a landslide by the commonly accepted definition of the word? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/74 "2017-02-07T16:26:25Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > Will you acknowledge that Trump’s win was not a landslide by the commonly accepted definition of the word? I will acknowledge that there is no “commonly accepted definition of the word”. “Landslide” is not an objective, quantitative term. In subjective things like that what is important is the perception, obviously. By definition of “subjective”, really. Hillary could have won by a huge electoral margin, and it wouldn’t have been a “landslide”. It would have been ho-hum. You know where you see the “landslide”? In the bitter tears and hysteria of the losers. In the #notmypresident stupidity. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/75 "2017-02-07T16:32:11Z")
Are you ESL or something? “Landslide” describes a lopsided win. Just because the losers’ tears gets you all tingly doesn’t mean you get to call it a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/76 "2017-02-07T16:38:21Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > The President McCain prediction from Adams was from _August 2008_. I think the financial crash in October 2008 had a lot to do with Obama’s victory. Adams has excellent predictive powers, but he is not a financial wizard with an ability to foresee the worst financial crash since the 1920’s. Neither were all the pundits about the rust belt or that yet another manufactured scandal was going to take Hillary down. No, the reality is that Adams clearly did not base his prediction on the economy. But on his “extraordinary” insights. > [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > What does Adams’ backing of Romney in 2012 have to do with the predictive powers of Scott Adams? It only tells me Adams endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012. You are over-reaching here. Nope, you are here just reaching for a straw and failing at it too. The reality is that together with his failed 2008 prediction Adams was wrong 2 out of three times. Might as well believe in astrology or creationism… Oh, wait… > **[Will Scott Adams never learn? | ScienceBlogs](https://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/01/30/will-scott-adams-never-learn)** > > We went round and round on this well over a year ago. Scott Adams, of Dilbert fame, wrote a shallow and ignorant argument that sort of shilly-shallied over a pro-creationist argument; I pointed out how stupid his reasoning was. The response was... ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/77 "2017-02-07T16:40:43Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > I will acknowledge that there is no “commonly accepted definition of the word”. “Landslide” is not an objective, quantitative term. In subjective things like that what is important is the perception, obviously. By definition of “subjective”, really. And now were back to, it doesn’t matter what the facts are, in this case that the term “landslide victory” has an accepted meaning. All that matters is how you what to feel about it, in this case that “landslide victory” has no commonly accepted meaning which it quite clearly does. And on that I’m done talking about it with you. It is beyond pointless to try to communicate with somebody who wants to use some secret internal definition, based on how they feel about, to their words that only they understand. I don’t have a copy of the Okrahoma to English dictionary and I do not want one. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/78 "2017-02-07T16:41:30Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Are you ESL or something? “Landslide” describes a lopsided win. Just because the losers’ tears gets you all tingly doesn’t mean you get to call it a landslide. When someone is expected to lose bigly by everyone, and the opposing party is already counting the spoils, and that someone wins, that’s “landslide” for me. Maybe not for you. But it is not an objective term, as I said. Here is one definition - by William Safire in his "Safire’s Political Dictionary: Landslide is a “resounding victory; one in which the opposition is buried”. Democrats are in disarray. Republicans hold Senate, House and Presidency. Republicans hold 33/50 governorships. Republicans hold 32/50 legislatures. Again, “resounding” and “buried” are subjective terms. In my opinion, yes, it was “resounding” and the opposition is pretty much “buried”. ---
**Author:** ![Olfatbut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a183cd/32.png) [@Olfatbut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Olfatbut)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/79 "2017-02-07T16:41:31Z")
Counter-prediction: Trump declares victory in 2 years and retires in triumph, having achieved everything he promised to do and then some. Hands it off to Pence who will serve two years and, if all goes according to plan, still be eligible to run for president two more times. The plan is for Pence to become our first 10-year prez since the 22nd Amendment. ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/80 "2017-02-07T16:59:49Z")
I didn’t think he would win this time so I’m not going to predict whether or not he’ll get re-elected, especially not with four years to go. I will make this prediction with confidence, though: if he does win re-election, he will become the first President in history who won two terms while losing the popular vote each time. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=5)