# Prediction: Trump wins re-election in 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 6, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200 "2017-02-06T23:14:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![voltaire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voltaire/32/313_2.png) [@voltaire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/voltaire)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/81 "2017-02-07T17:05:27Z")
I’m thinking _Avalanche Victory._ ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/82 "2017-02-07T19:32:29Z")
> [@arfurvirus](#): > > Conservatism has been like a megaton rock that has been sitting in the same spot from day one, and the Left has moved so far left that the rock that has never moved is now considered far right extremism. Overton Window. Best example is same-sex marriage; an extreme position 70 years ago (if even existent at all) but now mainstream, while opposing gay marriage is increasingly a fringe view. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/83 "2017-02-07T21:55:34Z")
While landslide and huge are not quantified, they are most quantifiable. I would argue that in my life there have been only two landslides, Johnson over Goldwater, and Nixon over McGovern. (Reagan over Mondale came close.) Viewed through that lens, trump’s “victory” does not qualify. And that whole “beating expectations” thing only applies during the primary season. The Electoral College normally does not contradict the popular vote, but normally magnifies it so that a few points of advantage in the popular can be reflected by a significant Electoral Vote advantage. (This is far more typical of what happens in a normal election.) ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/84 "2017-02-07T22:28:34Z")
OP’s argument seems to be that incumbents can’t lose and constituents don’t change their minds. I’m sure this is a great reassurance to LBJ and Jimmy Carter. The Democrats, or possibly an independent, can win, with the right organization and message. Politics is about \*changing \*minds. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/85 "2017-02-07T22:34:32Z")
> [@tim314](#): > > Liberals may not have loved Hillary, but they _hated_ Trump. I’ve observed a reaction of “Look what a horrible job Trump is doing as President – at least that means we’ll be rid of him in 4 years.” But he hasn’t been horrible in a _surprising_ way; he’s been horrible in exactly the way we were all screaming that he was horrible. So why would that change anything? Where on the ballot was the “minus one vote for Trump”? My state doesn’t have that. We vote _for_ candidates here. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/86 "2017-02-07T23:22:23Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > All the people making predictions - how accurate were your predictions in this election cycle? Why do you think that your predictive abilities have improved since? Because they have additional data. Now, if you’re laughing at these clowns for thinking there are still free and fair elections in the USA, I’m right there with you, pal. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2017, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/87 "2017-02-07T23:37:03Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > A landslide is in the eye of the beholder. It can be an EC landslide, or a popular vote landslide. I’d say Trump was about one Minnesota (or a second Clinton physical collapse/coughing fit) away from an Electoral College landslide. I fully admit Trump’s win was not a landslide, but it was oh so close to one. Wow. Your…bias…is showing. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/88 "2017-02-08T04:33:14Z")
It appears we’ve reached a new ‘alternative fact.’ The winner got 46% of the popular vote, _didn’t even beat his major opponent_, and won in a landslide? Sorry, but you know exactly where you can put your revisionist history. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/89 "2017-02-08T04:39:20Z")
> [@kk\_fusion](#): > > Conservatism is not about moving backwards, it’s about delaying change such that its contituents can adapt to new realities. > > Blocking any progress forever and ever is, almost by definition, _extreme_ conservatism, and rightly viewed as such by the American mainstream left, which is quite moderate by Western comparison. Bullshit. Conservatism is about keeping what you’ve got and preventing anyone else from having the chance to do the same. Status quo. How 'bout that conservative (attempted) repeal of Obamacare and pretty much every policy he ever put into place? Are you seriously suggesting that single payer or any other kind of universal health care is OK with conservatives, or ever will be? How about doing everything possible to isolate the country from the world? Give me a break. Tell me another fairy tale, grandma. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 9:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/90 "2017-02-08T09:25:01Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > Wow. Your…bias…is showing. Really? I quite openly stated Trump’s victory was _not_ a landslide, but that it was far closer to a landslide than just about anyone predicted before the event. I don’t think that is _too_ biased. The world is full of _ifs_ and _buts_; however, I really don’t think it too biased for me to point out that a win in Minnesota, or further Clinton coughing fit, or a newly discovered Clinton email or two would have delivered a loosely defined Trump landslide. That was part of Adams’ narrative; that Clinton had far more vulnerabilities as an aging and ill campaigner with multiple scandal issues in her closet. An aging campaigner with scandal issues also describes Trump rather well, but Trump had steamrollered over most of those issues surrounding him. Clinton’s steamroller had left the road rather more bumpier behind her than Trump had. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/91 "2017-02-08T16:22:43Z")
**Moderating** > [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > It appears we’ve reached a new ‘alternative fact.’ Do not direct the phrase “alternative fact” at another poster. This sort of action will soon begin attracting Warnings. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/92 "2017-02-08T16:30:14Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Really? I quite openly stated Trump’s victory was _not_ a landslide, but that it was far closer to a landslide than just about anyone predicted before the event. Who is “anyone” and how far before the event? The prediction poll numbers were very good, nationally, and even in the tipping states they were within the margin of error for a poll. Was the victory a surprise? Yes. However, it was not remotely “closer to a landslide” when compared to reputable pollsters’ predictions. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/93 "2017-02-08T16:41:33Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Bullshit. Conservatism is about keeping what you’ve got and preventing anyone else from having the chance to do the same. Status quo. This appears to be some odd pseudo-definition taken from some left wing alternative dictionary. Teddy Roosevelt was a conservative who included a number of progressive stands on conservation. Nixon was a conservative who supported environmental standards. Eisenhower was a conservative who supported racial equality. **Bricker** is a conservative who supported same sex marriage years before _Obergefell v. Hodges_ was decided. Partisan name-calling does nothing to promote the discussion, but if one feels the need to resort to that sort of thing, one should at least get ones facts straight. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/94 "2017-02-08T17:16:12Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > You don’t measure the size of the victory from 50%. You measure it from the expectations. In those terms it was a landslide. What \*\*iiandyiiii \*\*said. If the Patriots crush the Browns 63-0, it’s a lopsided rout. If the Browns crush the Patriots 63-0, it’s a lopsided rout. “Favored” doesn’t matter. What you are suggesting is electoral affirmative action. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/95 "2017-02-08T17:51:04Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Who is “anyone” and how far before the event? The prediction poll numbers were very good, nationally, and even in the tipping states they were within the margin of error for a poll. > Was the victory a surprise? Yes. However, it was not remotely “closer to a landslide” when compared to reputable pollsters’ predictions. I said _almost anyone_. This gives me some leeway in my claim that few predicted even a near landslide for Trump. Please, quote me correctly from now on when you are trying to nitpick an unimportant point. The tipping states were not within the margin of error; some were and some were not. Plus, eggheads were telling us if we conflated poll averages this would make them oh so reliable. I said nothing about comparing pollsters predictions of a Clinton win with a near landslide Trump victory. I believe that to have been another poster. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/96 "2017-02-08T19:13:01Z")
I think part of the reason that the polls were so wrong is that many trump supporters lied to the pollsters out of sheer spite. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/97 "2017-02-08T19:51:20Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > I think part of the reason that the polls were so wrong is that many trump supporters lied to the pollsters out of sheer spite. I think it had more to do with turnout being wildly different than normal, not lying. The pollsters expected a certain portion of the population to turn out to vote, a different portion voted instead. That’s the hardest part of polling to get right, and they were still (barely) in the margin of error. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/98 "2017-02-08T20:00:18Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > I think part of the reason that the polls were so wrong is that many trump supporters lied to the pollsters out of sheer spite. I’m curious: how wrong do you think the polls were? ---
**Author:** ![Grrr](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grrr/32/146_2.png) [@Grrr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grrr)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/99 "2017-02-08T20:16:01Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > I’d like those back-of-the-warehouse voters to tell me exactly how they expect Trump to cut taxes (almost exclusively for the 1%), raise spending, and be fine with it. Or if they mind having no allies anymore. Or if they enjoy living in a tyranny. “Working man’s billionnaire” my ass. > > How the fuck does anyone fall for that bullshit line? How the fuck do you vote for someone who is plainly against your own interests? How do you vote for a strongman in a democracy? And how do you let him bend you over without so much as a reacharound? Ferchrissakes, people, have some fucking self-respect! Look back at the Civil War. You had half the country willing to put their lives on the line (and kill), so 1% of its citizens could own slaves. It’s truly mind boggling. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/100 "2017-02-08T20:22:08Z")
> [@kk\_fusion](#): > > Conservatism is not about moving backwards, it’s about delaying change such that its contituents can adapt to new realities. Or trying to delay the passage of time, or at least denying it. It’s a lot like Relativity and how people in different positions/circumstances view time and space events differently. To themselves, perhaps, Conservatives are not moving backwards. Instead they see themselves as standing firmly in one place. But when everyone else is moving forward into the future the Conservatives are seen as going in reverse. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=6)