# Prediction: Trump wins re-election in 2020 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 6, 2017, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200 "2017-02-06T23:14:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/101 "2017-02-08T21:12:27Z")
Conservatism has many meanings. Modern “movement conservatives” aren’t even conservative by most standard definitions; it’s just their tribal label. They might be regressive, or politically racist, or crypto-fascist, or minarchist, or some combination of the above. They might just be corrupt. But again, “conservative” is a marketing label, not how they actually, technically, behave. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [February 8, 2017, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/102 "2017-02-08T21:44:16Z")
You nailed it, foolsguinea. Many of us here remember, with a certain perverse nostalgia, when the right was dominated by the likes of Buckley and Goldwater, and the defining characteristic of “conservatism” was prudence rather than dickishness. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/103 "2017-02-09T03:21:05Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > I said _almost anyone_. This gives me some leeway in my claim that few predicted even a near landslide for Trump. Please, quote me correctly from now on when you are trying to nitpick an unimportant point. > > The tipping states were not within the margin of error; some were and some were not. Plus, eggheads were telling us if we conflated poll averages this would make them oh so reliable. I said nothing about comparing pollsters predictions of a Clinton win with a near landslide Trump victory. I believe that to have been another poster. Unimportant point? You made a claim that so many people were wrong in predicting the election that it was effectively a landslide. Setting aside, for a moment, the nonsense aspect of that statement, _using words in a way that is counter to their standard usage in English_, your claim is worthless without some actual numbers. If you can use weasel words to make nonsense claims, I am free to dismiss your “leeway.” Can you cite any of these “eggheads”? Or are you getting your information from Spicer or Conway? [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) had Trump at a better than 28% chance of winning. Losing the popular vote by several millions does not make his victory a “landslide” with that sort of chance. ---
**Author:** ![MEBuckner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mebuckner/32/2896_2.png) [@MEBuckner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MEBuckner)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 3:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/104 "2017-02-09T03:39:42Z")
Here are what “landslides” look like: [1936](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1936_Electoral_Map.png) [1964](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1964_Electoral_Map.png) [1972](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1972_Electoral_Map.png) [1984](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege1984-Large.png) [2016](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ElectoralCollege2016.svg) is not remotely a landslide (nor would it have been even if Trump had managed to flip Minnesota as well). It was sure as hell an “upset”, but it wasn’t a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/105 "2017-02-09T04:05:55Z")
> [@MEBuckner](#): > > It was sure as hell an “upset”, but it wasn’t a landslide. I posted this above: definition by William Safire in his “Safire’s Political Dictionary”: Landslide is a “resounding victory; one in which the opposition is buried”. Democrats are in disarray. Republicans hold Senate, House and Presidency. Republicans hold 33/50 governorships. Republicans hold 32/50 legislatures. Again, “resounding” and “buried” are subjective terms. In my opinion, yes, it was “resounding” and the opposition is pretty much “buried”. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/106 "2017-02-09T04:38:44Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > I posted this above: definition by William Safire in his “Safire’s Political Dictionary”: > > Landslide is a “resounding victory; one in which the opposition is buried”. > > Democrats are in disarray. Republicans hold Senate, House and Presidency. Republicans hold 33/50 governorships. Republicans hold 32/50 legislatures. > > Again, “resounding” and “buried” are subjective terms. In my opinion, yes, it was “resounding” and the opposition is pretty much “buried”. Meh, others that look at what Safire said do recognize that what Trump got was not a resounding victory. Even Safire wrote in his dictionary that lesser victories were called “landslides” but with a sarcastic meaning. Like when “Landslide Johnson [in Texas]” eked a victory in the Texas primary, but it was not sarcastic in the general election.\*\*Safire wrote in the dictionary that the presidential popular victory by 61% of Johnson “was enough to call it a genuine landslide”. \*\* In conclusion, telling others that Safire would call what Trump got as a “landslide” is wrong. Now if it was satirical… Of course I agree on sarcastically calling the Donald “Landslide Trump” for posterity. More valuable is Safire’s definition of “Mandate”: > [@](#): > > The word “mandate” doesn’t appear in the Constitution, even though presidents have tossed it around for more than a century. So I’ll rely on the late William Safire’s invaluable “Political Dictionary”: > > “MANDATE, n: The authority to carry out a program conferred on an elected official; especially strong after a landslide victory.” > > Leaving aside Trump’s hot air on the electoral vote, his claim to broad popular support is still weak. > > He won about 46% of the popular vote; Clinton won 48%. You want a mandate? In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 51% of the popular vote in a three-way race. In 2008, Barack Obama won 53%. In 1932, Franklin D. Roosevelt won 57%. > > Voters recognize the difference. > > A Washington Post poll last week found that only 29% of voters think Trump has a mandate to carry out his program; most said they want him to seek compromises with Democrats instead. > > By comparison, in 2008, 50% said Obama had a mandate. In 2000, 41% said George W. Bush, who lost the popular vote, had a mandate. > > Trump’s “favorability” has inched upward since the election to 47% in the CNN Poll, but he’s still short of a majority. That’s never happened to a president-elect in modern polling before. > > As a practical matter, Trump needs a mandate, however defined, to persuade Congress to follow his lead, confirm his nominations and enact his programs — even when Congress is held by his own party. > > Republicans hold only 52 seats in the Senate; if only three dissent, the new president will have a problem. And GOP senators are a restive lot; 12 of the 52 did not endorse Trump on election day. On Tuesday, in an early show of autonomy, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said he didn’t agree with Trump over his charges of voter fraud or his demand (in another tweet) to lock up anyone who burns the American flag. > > Trump is immune to chastisement; if we learned anything from the campaign, it’s that. But he won’t get away with his bogus claims unless other politicians and voters accede. So it’s not bad sportsmanship for Democrats and others to point out what really happened on Nov. 8; it’s truth-telling, and it matters. ---
**Author:** ![tim314](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tim314/32/3468_2.png) [@tim314](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tim314)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/107 "2017-02-09T06:28:03Z")
I was going to suggest that perhaps someone should start a separate thread for the question of whether “landslide” means whatever it is the Trump supporters think it means, or whether it just means landslide. Then again, maybe I can revise my prediction to make the question more relevant to this thread: **Revised Prediction -** Trump wins another _close_ election in 2020, and declares it a landslide. \*\*\*Bonus Prediction - \*\*\ ***tim314** is declared a brilliant prognosticator because he guessed one of two possible outcomes early on, and then stuck with it. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/108 "2017-02-09T07:01:56Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > This appears to be some odd pseudo-definition taken from some left wing alternative dictionary. > > Teddy Roosevelt was a conservative who included a number of progressive stands on conservation. Nixon was a conservative who supported environmental standards. Eisenhower was a conservative who supported racial equality. **Bricker** is a conservative who supported same sex marriage years before _Obergefell v. Hodges_ was decided. > > Partisan name-calling does nothing to promote the discussion, but if one feels the need to resort to that sort of thing, one should at least get ones facts straight. Examples from half a century ago or more don’t fly. Conservatives of Nixon’s or TR’s day bear little resemblance to today’s. Nixon was the one in support of integration that Kennedy stole the fire from. But while we’re here, talk to me about how progressive Mitch McConnell was or is, how progressive DeVos or Sessions are going to be, how progressive Gorsuch and Pence will be. Talk to me about how Trump is the ‘working man’s billionnaire’ who’s going to cut taxes for the very wealthy but not the middle class. How he’s going to build the wall knowing it’s the middle class that will end up paying for it. How he’s going to cut out 20 million plus people’s health insurance given half the chance. And how conservatives are marching with him in lockstep. More of the same. And I’m sorry, a few conservatives supporting gay marriage (usually because they’re close with someone who’s gay) really doesn’t impress me either. Not when the overwhelming majority of them are screaming about how it’s eroding the American family. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 8:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/109 "2017-02-09T08:40:49Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > Unimportant point? \*\* You made a claim that so many people were wrong in predicting the election that it was effectively a landslide. \*\*Setting aside, for a moment, the nonsense aspect of that statement, _using words in a way that is counter to their standard usage in English_, your claim is worthless without some actual numbers. If you can use weasel words to make nonsense claims, I am free to dismiss your “leeway.” > Can you cite any of these “eggheads”? Or are you getting your information from Spicer or Conway? [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) had Trump at a better than 28% chance of winning. Losing the popular vote by several millions does not make his victory a “landslide” with that sort of chance. With regards to the part of your post I emboldened I said no such thing. Plenty of other stat sites gave Trump far less than a 28% chance of victory. I note you pick the site that give him the greatest chance, and conveniently missed the sites giving Clinton something like a 95% chance of victory. Again though, this has nothing to do with my claim about a near landslide. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/110 "2017-02-09T12:19:27Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > Again though, this has nothing to do with my claim about a near landslide. Which you continue to fail to support with evidence. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/111 "2017-02-09T12:23:35Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Examples from half a century ago or more don’t fly. Conservatives of Nixon’s or TR’s day bear little resemblance to today’s. Nixon was the one in support of integration that Kennedy stole the fire from. But while we’re here, talk to me about how progressive Mitch McConnell was or is, how progressive DeVos or Sessions are going to be, how progressive Gorsuch and Pence will be. I do not chase moving goalposts. You made a declaration about conservatives that only applies to a limited number of conservatives. If your initial post had talked about McConnell, Rove, or similar jerks, I would have not responded. Broad brush condemnations (like your claim about which conservatives support gay marriage) are worthless and counter-productive. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/112 "2017-02-09T14:27:30Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > You nailed it, foolsguinea. Many of us here remember, with a certain perverse nostalgia, when the right was dominated by the likes of Buckley and Goldwater, and the defining characteristic of “conservatism” was prudence rather than dickishness. I’ve seen my family, who has for the past four decades described themselves as conservatives because of issues on taxes and social issues, evolve to become Trump conservatives because they actively love the fact that he’s a dick. My brother has flat out said that he doesn’t care at all what policies Trump attempts to enact as long as he continues to piss off liberals (or as he calls them “commies”). That said, I’ve seen similar reactions on the left, with friends who are more excited for a political win because it annoys conservatives than for what the win actually means. Our country has become a youtube comment section. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/113 "2017-02-09T15:24:20Z")
I will acknowledge that when Obama won I did tune into Fox just to watch their heads explode, but that was a secondary consideration, not my primary one. In the final analysis trump was elected, as Republicans often are, by Democrats who _didn’t_ vote. I don’t see that happening again. Add to that a small but real amount of “Oh, my god. What have we done?” Republicans, and trump should have hard sailing in 2020. (All of this presumes an electoral system that has not been changed to put the proverbial thumb on the scale.) The big question whether trump’s supporters would accept such an outcome. Faith in the electoral system has been eroded. Indeed, belief in an objective verifiable reality has been eroded. And this is just after less than a month in. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2017, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/114 "2017-02-09T22:04:08Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > 1. In the same way that some folks who date abusive people for the “excitement” eventually begin to long for “boring but good” partners after a while, the American voting electorate, after 4 years of random, haphazard, here-and-there, unpredictable, bombastic Trump, will be desperately longing for a stable, plain, bland, establishment candidate again - and the Democrats will be committing a big blunder if they believe that the lesson of 2016 is that they need to nominate a celebrity or anti-establishment candidate to win. They needed to go **anti** -establishment in 2016 (and failed,) but need to be **pro** -establishment in 2020. That is based upon the fallacy that the only choice is between the “establishment” and an “anti-establishment” Trumpism. The solution is to offer a real challenge to the status quo that Trump has failed to offer. It’s not as if the death-spiral of Middle America will improve in anyway in the next 4 years unless Trump does something drastic which in turn will probably ensure his reelection. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2017, 6:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/115 "2017-02-11T06:47:56Z")
> [@tomndebb](#): > > I do not chase moving goalposts. > > You made a declaration about conservatives that only applies to a limited number of conservatives. If your initial post had talked about McConnell, Rove, or similar jerks, I would have not responded. Broad brush condemnations (like your claim about which conservatives support gay marriage) are worthless and counter-productive. Hmm…seems to me taking examples from political eras totally unconnected to today’s is a move all its own. Go back to my original quote. Where did I ever use the word progressive? Nor did I say anything about gay marriage. YOU came up with that. YOU moved the goalposts. My only mistake was biting. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2017, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/116 "2017-02-11T23:08:46Z")
One fear that I have articulated is that trump may merely be a transitional figure , such as Kerensky or Hindenburg. What happens when he doesn’t drain the wall or swamp her up or whatever three word nostrum he’s peddling at the time? Who does Boobus Americanus turn to next time? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2017, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/117 "2017-02-12T01:26:29Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > One fear that I have articulated is that trump may merely be a transitional figure , such as Kerensky or Hindenburg. What happens when he doesn’t drain the wall or swamp her up or whatever three word nostrum he’s peddling at the time? Who does Boobus Americanus turn to next time? If the left makes an effort to put up a real populist maybe we might get New Deal 2.0 instead of Literally Hitler but nah it’s more fun to call them “Boobus Americanus” and then cringe for the next blow amirite? ---
**Author:** ![phantom\_lamb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5f9b8f/32.png) [@phantom\_lamb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phantom_lamb)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2017, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/118 "2017-02-13T01:34:40Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > What about when the white working class realize in 4 years that immigrants are still everywhere, they still can’t pay their bills, there aren’t enough jobs, health care is still unaffordable, ISIS is still a problem, etc? I appreciate your optimism but I think the sooner people realize that we are living in a post-truth age the better. None of those things you mentioned matter. Trump can do any number of catastrophic things and it won’t matter. It’s naive to think his supporters will experience an epiphany in the next 4 years and “realize” anything. Any narrative can be attached to any event, any spin can be put onto anything and half the population will lap it up. I really don’t know how we get out of this, though. It’s terrifying the more you think about it. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2017, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/119 "2017-02-13T02:24:16Z")
> [@phantom\_lamb](#): > > I appreciate your optimism but I think the sooner people realize that we are living in a post-truth age the better. None of those things you mentioned matter. Trump can do any number of catastrophic things and it won’t matter. It’s naive to think his supporters will experience an epiphany in the next 4 years and “realize” anything. Any narrative can be attached to any event, any spin can be put onto anything and half the population will lap it up. I really don’t know how we get out of this, though. It’s terrifying the more you think about it. Huh, and here I thought that we needed only to convince less than 1% of the people in a few battleground states. [Oh wait, we do.](https://www.thenation.com/article/post-election-survey-most-trump-voters-still-up-for-grabs-for-democrats/) I think you are forgetting that it was not only Trump supporters that made him win, but that a very significant number of Democrats did not vote. And some misguidedly voted for him. One sobering thing to remember is that Trump won with almost the same number of voters that voted for Romney in 2012. IMHO a lot of of those, and independents that did vote for Trump were the kind of people that needed to see by themselves that the warnings that many were telling them about Trump was not just politics. Trump and the Republican congress are producing that evidence fast and furiously. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2017, 3:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200/120 "2017-02-13T03:51:09Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > One sobering thing to remember is that Trump won with almost the same number of voters that voted for Romney in 2012. Not that the popular vote matters but: Compared to 2012 Nationwide, Trump got ~2M more votes than Romney Nationwide, Clinton got ~90K less votes than Obama. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prediction-trump-wins-re-election-in-2020/779200.md?page=7)