# Predictions: 2026 US election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 11, 2026, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985 "2026-09-11T05:57:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2026, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/21 "2026-09-12T16:41:35Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The rumor is that Iran and the houthis are going to wait until closer to the election to block both striats on the arabian penninsula, spiking gas prices to punish trump in the election. Gas and especially diesel prices are already spiking. I’m not sure they can do much more. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2026, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/22 "2026-09-12T16:56:30Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Gas and especially diesel prices are already spiking. I’m not sure they can do much more. The houthis shut down the east-west oil pipeline across saudi arabia and it looks like Iranian backed proxies are looking to close both the strait of hormuz and the bab al mandeb strait. Between those 2, about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows. I don’t like right wing religious fanatics, but if the right wing religious fanatics in the middle east want to make life poltically harder for the right wing religious fanatics in the US, then I wish them both the best of luck. > **[Saudi Arabia shuts key oil pipeline after drone attack launched from Iraq](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62m933465eo)** > > Iraq removes a military commander and opens investigations into the attack that came from an area bordering Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2026, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/23 "2026-09-12T17:48:00Z")
I am far from optimistic about the midterms. There will be massive cheating on the GOP side and major attempts to toss out results. Talarico will lose in TX by a small margin. The only flip will be in NC where Cooper looks to be in good shape. I expect Collins to hang on to her seat in ME and NH is looking like a loss for the Democrats. So flipping NC won’t really do them much good. Alaska will stay red as well. I’m calling the Senate 47 D and 53 R. The House seems a possible change for Democrats but I wouldn’t expect them to get control by more than 10 seats. If enough red states pull shenanigans it is possible the GOP could hold control by a slim margin. I’m also concerned about violence aimed at a couple of the Ds running for Senate. The outburst (“he should be shot”) at the GOP circle jerk this week is worrying. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2026, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/24 "2026-09-12T23:38:37Z")
I’ve been a furriner on this message board for almost a quarter of a century and in that enjoyable duration have lost count of the number of electoral “blue tsunamis” which have been predicted and essentially failed to materialise. This tells me that the SDMB is a thoroughly unreliable indicator of Americana and that the average American (regardless of how they respond if polled) when they are alone with their conscience in the ballot booth actually thinks in their apple pie soul “Go, you good thing” and is a whole lot closer to MAGA than is healthy for the rest of us, and likely even themselves. There is now, what 38% of polled Americans who will likely say, “I didn’t get my $5k because of those f’king librulls”. What with polarisation and gerrymander, there simply isn’t the number of competitive races in play. So from this disinterested perspective, my resigned prediction is that DEM will win the House with insufficient margin to materially roll back the indolence and indulgences and the GOP will retain control of the Senate. Even without electoral shenanigans. Unless the angst vs Trump in the American heartland matches the angst vs Trump felt globally. In which case his approval would be intractably in single digits and a real cathartic, cauterising “blue wave” be feasible. Alas no. Which is a misfortune. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/25 "2026-09-13T00:05:59Z")
Re the poll, I think there will be systematic bias towards one party or the other but there is no evidence-based way to guess which. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/26 "2026-09-13T00:14:24Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m voting my heart in the poll but … scared. While I certainly plan to vote Democratic, my fear is that the Democrats take control, Trump vetoes everything, and rules as a pure dictator. I’ve accused him of being a dictator before, but there are matters of degree on that, and the degree to which Trump ignores congress will get worse if there is a Democratic congress. So I do think the Democrats will get narrow control of both houses, despite all cheating. But my heart isn’t in it because there’s not a lot they can accomplish. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/27 "2026-09-13T00:46:46Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The rumor is that Iran and the houthis are going to wait until closer to the election to block both striats on the arabian penninsula, spiking gas prices to punish trump in the election. If so, they understand nothing of Americans. Americans will rally 'round the government when it gets bad. Bad guys close straits, trump blusters, launches some kind of counterattack, and everybody is waving flags, voting R, and certainly afraid to push back against the executive at this time of national peril. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/28 "2026-09-13T00:55:32Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Americans will rally 'round the government when it gets bad. Bad guys close straits, trump blusters, launches some kind of counterattack, and everybody is waving flags, voting R, and certainly afraid to push back against the executive at this time of national peril. I doubt they’re going to do that for the Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz. Those are far-off foreign places, not New York City or Pearl Harbor. No one rallied around to support Trump’s war with Iran, for example. Ditto for the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/29 "2026-09-13T01:54:13Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Americans will rally 'round the government when it gets bad. I agree with this sentence, but how bad? Sunk aircraft carrier – I guess. Domestic terror attacks killing thousands – that would do it. But I do not see a setback, without the shock of a high one-day American death total, creating a rally 'round the government effect that would insure GOP success in November. And because of Trump’s current low polling, it would take a bigger disaster for a strong rally 'round effect than with a normal presidential administration. P.S. Just four minutes after posting, I’m not sure I was right with the above. I compare to 9/11, but hardly anyone thought that was the administration’s fault. As for Pearl Harbor, the whole situation was different. When we declared war against Japan, the death toll was unknown, and the impression was still that we had been pretty successful in fighting back. Any disaster now would be blamed on Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/30 "2026-09-13T02:01:49Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Americans will rally 'round the government when it gets bad. Bad guys close straits, trump blusters, launches some kind of counterattack, and everybody is waving flags, voting R, and certainly afraid to push back against the executive at this time of national peril. > Americans will put up with anything provided it doesn’t block traffic > > - Dan Rather Americans care far more about gas prices than they care about the fact that the president is dangerously mentally ill, a child molester, incompetent, treasonous, corrupt and authoritarian. So I could see Iran intentionally spiking gas prices in the weeks ahead of the election. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/31 "2026-09-13T02:07:16Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > So I could see Iran intentionally spiking gas prices in the weeks ahead of the election. I guess, but it’s not like they have the power to double it. And why should they try? Foreigners know a lot about the U.S. So I think they will know that U.S. military policy is set by the commander in chief, the president. They won’t be fooled into thinking that Democrats in congress can save them from further U.S. attacks. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/32 "2026-09-13T02:13:29Z")
As a guess, in the hopes that democrats will use congress to cut funding for the war in Iran, and so the democrats would support investigations into Trump and his administration that makes it harder for him to conduct these wars. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/33 "2026-09-13T02:24:33Z")
Re last post: So foreign dictators look at Trump and say, poor man, he has to what his parliament tells him? Unlikely. I renew my prediction that the Democrats will take over congress (or at least the House – the Senate could be too hard a pull with Fetterman’s likely defection) and find Trump utterly ruling by decree. And I also predict that when, decades from now, the Iranian archives are opened, they will turn out to have had little interest in our midterm. ---
**Author:** ![MysteriousCritter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/839c29/32.png) [@MysteriousCritter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteriousCritter)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/34 "2026-09-13T02:36:59Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Is the overall polling going to be: on average about right (misses mostly in MOE and evenly spread each way, call it within 2 or fewer points overall); lots of individual misses outside MOE but even spread of surprises each way; systemically off by more than 2 points, and then to which side? The reported MOE is for the individual candidate numbers. The margin between them in a head to head poll is double that number. (It’s a little less than that in actual voting since people can not vote for that race or vote third party but roughly double is a reasonably accurate adjustment. ([Cite](https://projects.gelliottmorris.com/polls-moe/)) House races tend to be less frequently polled with smaller sample sizes. ± 4-5 reported MOE is pretty common. (The only poll in my competitive district, from 5 months ago, is ±4.8 MOE.) That gives us a margin of error of 8-10 points for the difference between two candidates. A D+2 district is expected to fall in the D-8 to D+12 range. I expect the margin in most House races to miss the polls by \<=10 points. i’m not sure my selection in the poll means what you think it does, though. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/35 "2026-09-13T02:53:21Z")
If the election were fair, I would go along with the OP. But that’s a big if. I can see ICE goons deployed in every inner city; I can see that red or even purple states will remove voting booths from Inner cities (as happened in OH in 2000 where polls closed at midnight with thousands left in line). And as @PhillyGuy suggested a seat will be lost in PA even without an election. What a useless piece of excrement Fetterman has turned out to be. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/36 "2026-09-13T03:47:41Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > I’ve been a furriner on this message board for almost a quarter of a century and in that enjoyable duration have lost count of the number of electoral “blue tsunamis” which have been predicted and essentially failed to materialise. > > This tells me that the SDMB is a thoroughly unreliable indicator of Americana and that the average American (regardless of how they respond if polled) Umm, dude? Only one, count 'em, ONE poster thinks there will be a “blue tsunami” in November. Most of us think there will be a close Democrat win. Maybe. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I am far from optimistic about the midterms. > [@DSeid](#): > > I’m voting my heart in the poll but … scared. > [@Atamasama](#): > > I think it’ll be much like the 2018 midterms; Republicans will lose the House but keep the Senate. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Yes, the Dems will take the House, by at least 10 seats. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/37 "2026-09-13T04:13:32Z")
> [@MysteriousCritter](#): > > i’m not sure my selection in the poll means what you think it does, though. Well I don’t even know what your selection was so there’s that … Accepting your cite we have historical performance that “About 25% of polls fall outside their stated margin of error” So if you expect “the margin in most House races to miss the polls by \<=10 points” and most report MOE of +/- 3 ish you are expecting much worse than historical norms on individual races. Note though that is for an individual poll; not aggregated results: > reduce _random_ error, but when pollsters share similar methodologies, they tend to miss in the same direction — and those shared errors don’t cancel out. The 2016 and 2020 elections showed this clearly. Which is why aggregated results, at least in well polled races are more impacted by the systemic model errors than reported MOEs. And that is the crux of what I am asking: _Will_ there be a significant shared methodology error this cycle and if so which way? Or just inaccurate polling in general but in a more random not shared manner? Or pretty much on the money? ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/38 "2026-09-13T04:49:05Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Umm, dude? Only one, count 'em, ONE poster thinks there will be a “blue tsunami” in November. Most of us think there will be a close Democrat win. Maybe. Actually, there was one other who also is going for the tsunami, although they didn’t use that word. > [@JDYanYan](#): > > Dems flip 36ish house seats (kinda ballparking since I don’t know what the thresholds are per seat), 8 senate seats (NC,OH,ME,AK,TX,IA,KS,NE). Flip Governorships in GA, IA, TX, OH, NV. Eight Senate seats and 36-ish House seats qualifies as a tsunami. Roughly what the Ds did in 1932, which was one of the biggest tsunamis ever. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/39 "2026-09-13T05:05:54Z")
Don’t have to go all the way back to the 30s to see 8 senate seats flip. That happened in 2008. We saw them flip 6 in 2006. But honestly flips can be a little decieving because election to election you set your own par. If we hadn’t fumbled Maine and North Carolina in 2020, this year we would be looking at holding those two seats and for the same election the “flip” potential is that much lower. That’s why 2018 looked disappointing, if we hadn’t already flipped MT, OH, and previously held red state seats in ND, IN, MO, and FL the D+9 election would have looked a lot more impressive. With that in mind the election that’s on my vision board is one that’s old, but not great depression old. I want to party like it’s 1974. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2026, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/40 "2026-09-13T05:14:58Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > With that in mind the election that’s on my vision board is one that’s old, but not great depression old. I want to party like it’s 1974. Looking that up, I find that the Ds picked up 4 Senate seats in 1974, to expand their majority to 60. That would be filibuster-proof, but they’d have to pick up 13 seats this year to meet that total. A 13-seat gain would be a mega-tsunami. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985.md?page=3)