# Predictions: 2026 US election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 11, 2026, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985 "2026-09-11T05:57:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2026, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/61 "2026-09-14T04:37:44Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > The thing that happened in 2018 or 2020 that I think helped Trump is that the economic optimism was relatively high. Nope. The _hoi polloi_ just knew inflation had been high. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/62 "2026-09-21T15:06:48Z")
The first poll (that I’m aware of) showing Trump below 30% approval. Generally speaking I think people are still underestimating the backlash. This is very very close to Nixon’s 1974 approval. > **[American Research Group](https://americanresearchgroup.com/)** ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/63 "2026-09-21T15:31:01Z")
Enthusiasm will be the key differentiator here in 2026. If every remaining frothing MAGAt shows up to vote, and lots of disaffected or disgusted others don’t, or still vote their ballot for Anyone (R) as they have their entire life, well, the Rs remain in control of the US Congress and lotsa statehouses and governorships all over this land. I could see an argument that if trump himself was on the ballot this Nov, he _might_ get a pretty low count. But telling a lifelong tribal but conventional R voter to vote D this time is a tall order. And as long as most R congressional candidates are wacky proto-fascists, not 1980s movement Repoublicans, the vote for Anyone (R) amounts to a vote for enabling trump to complete the fascist takeover of the country. Hence the very vicious culture wars attack ads anywhere a D has a decent shot at a governorship or congressional seat. If they can paint the Ds as enough of an un-American disaster if given power, voting for Anyone (R) who’s really Anyone (Fascist) will seem like the better decision. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/64 "2026-09-22T16:29:09Z")
15 seat pickup in the House, figuring low because Republicans have come out slightly ahead in the gerrymandering wars, and net gain of five in the Senate on the heels of polling out of Iowa (52-48 result). Eat that, Fetterman. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/65 "2026-09-29T01:25:36Z")
My prediction earlier in the thread is decidedly negative but I felt it worth sharing this Substack post from Art Cullen. Cullen is the Pulitzer Prize winning editor of The Storm Lake Times Pilot in Northwest Iowa. This is in deep red MAGAland and he lays out just why the GOP is in deep trouble in Iowa. [A month out, Iowa poised for a political turn](https://artcullen.substack.com/p/a-month-out-iowa-poised-for-a-political?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web) For those who don’t want to click Cullen talks about why the Senate seat, Governorship, other state offices and a good chunk of the House seats could go Blue in November. > It’s the war. It’s diesel prices. It’s nitrate in the river and ammonia in the air. It’s ICE marauders shooting citizens in the streets. It’s a billion-dollar state budget deficit. It’s the feeling that your town could just fizzle away. It’s all those things adding up after all these years. > > … > > Iowa tends to moderate over time. It feels like the decade of one-party rule is exhausted, none too soon. I would love it if Cullen is correct. ---
**Author:** ![Steven\_Maven](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steven_maven/32/3272_2.png) [@Steven\_Maven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steven_Maven)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/66 "2026-10-28T21:42:00Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > telling a lifelong tribal but conventional R voter to vote D this time is a tall order. That’s definitely “a bridge too far.” IMHO the pitch should have been: don’t vote for fascism & corruption enablers. Vote with your feet & stay home.” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 1:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/67 "2026-10-29T01:15:59Z")
> [@Steven\_Maven](#): > > That’s definitely “a bridge too far.” IMHO the pitch should have been: don’t vote for fascism & corruption enablers. Vote with your feet & stay home.” Or vote Libertarian or something. I expect a good number of Texas Rs will do this on Election Day for Senate- Paxton is so sleazy. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/68 "2026-10-29T16:46:31Z")
Big caveat that I think it’s easy to draw strong conclusions from turnout that can be misleading, but the general consensus I’ve seen from the numbers is GOP are powerfully struggling to activate their voters. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/69 "2026-10-29T17:47:44Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > the general consensus I’ve seen from the numbers is GOP are powerfully struggling to activate their voters. Indeed. If we didn’t have so much gerrymandering in this country, this election would probably be much like the 1993 Canadian election. For those who don’t remember, going into the election, Kim Campbell (Progressive Conservative) was PM with an outright majority (156 out of 295) in Parliament. But the PCs were unpopular and they only won 2 seats in the new Parliament. Possibly the worst result of a ruling party ever. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2026, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/70 "2026-10-29T19:57:45Z")
I don’t really have any idea which way the polling error will break, so I’ll make a mildly optimistic projection of a six-seat swing in the Senate, with Dems flipping OH, ME, TX, AK and NC, and then somehow picking up one of IA, KS, SC, NE, MT. That would give them 53 seats. For the house, I’ll say 245 Dem seats. I’ll also go out on a limb and say that Talarico’s coattails will be long enough for Hinojosa to beat Abbott in the TX governor’s race. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/71 "2026-10-30T03:15:01Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I don’t really have any idea which way the polling error will break, so I’ll make a mildly optimistic projection of a six-seat swing in the Senate, with Dems flipping OH, ME, TX, AK and NC, and then somehow picking up one of IA, KS, SC, NE, MT. That would give them 53 seats. For the house, I’ll say 245 Dem seats. I like the cut of your jib here, I think you are going to come close, absent some last minute MAGA shenanigans. > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I’ll also go out on a limb and say that Talarico’s coattails will be long enough for Hinojosa to beat Abbott in the TX governor’s race. I will not go that far, but it will be close, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/72 "2026-10-30T05:28:22Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > I’ll also go out on a limb and say that Talarico’s coattails will be long enough for Hinojosa to beat Abbott in the TX governor’s race. This would be a dream come true. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2026, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/73 "2026-10-30T16:44:51Z")
> **[Low-engagement voters are swinging hard toward Democrats](https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-30-low-propensity-voters)** > > Low-engagement voters handed Trump the 2024 election. Now they support Democrats for Congress If you are a Republican consultant, I think this is a sentence that would keep you up at night. Since he left office Trump has become increasingly repellant to the engaged electorate. Which is why during Biden’s presidency the Dems were able to perform well in special elections elections and the 2022 midterm. Trump made his way into the Whitehouse on the strength of people who didn’t follow a campaign or watch a debate. Squishy unreachable voters were the last possible source for Republican votes outside of their base. ---
**Author:** ![Hari\_Seldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hari_seldon/32/5173_2.png) [@Hari\_Seldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hari_Seldon)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/74 "2026-10-31T01:17:54Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > But the PCs were unpopular and they only won 2 seats in the new Parliament. Possibly the worst result of a ruling party ever. Until the recent Quebec election when the governing CAQ went from consecutive majority governments to total wipeout. Incidentally, both of those elections involve a woman thrown in late in the term as a sacrificial lamb. I recently read that there is a meme about companies heading towards bankruptcy choosing a female CEO to take the fall. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985.md?page=3)