# Predictions: 2026 US election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 11, 2026, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985 "2026-09-11T05:57:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/101 "2026-11-05T02:28:03Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > Making predictions is tough. A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. Even when it’s understood academically that this cannot be true, it’s a powerfully compelling notion. ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/102 "2026-11-05T03:03:04Z")
I feel like I came pretty close but on election eve I was shaking like a leaf. 2014-2024 messed a lot of us up. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/103 "2026-11-05T03:40:44Z")
> [@Ulf\_the\_Unwashed](#): > > some practically right on the money dating back into September Ahem. That was me in the OP: > [@dtilque](#): > > In the Senate, I see these seats flipping: NC, ME, OH, TX, AK, NE, IA, KS. Missed on NE and AK is still not called. Also > [@dtilque](#): > > I’m also fairly sure there’ll be at least one and perhaps several surprise flips. Look in the South, most likely in FL, SC, MS, LA or AR. Was on target. As was > [@dtilque](#): > > Republican House seats flipped: at least 30, possibly 40+ I wasn’t the only one on target. This one was too: > [@JDYanYan](#): > > Dems flip 36ish house seats (kinda ballparking since I don’t know what the thresholds are per seat), 8 senate seats (NC,OH,ME,AK,TX,IA,KS,NE). Flip Governorships in GA, IA, TX, OH, NV. Very good call on those Governor flips. > [@bordelond](#): > > A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. I guess I’m not subject to that superstition. Way back in early summer, I was sure of my predictions and considered starting this thread a month before I actually did. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/104 "2026-11-05T04:39:23Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Ahem. That was me in the OP: You were pretty close. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 5:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/105 "2026-11-05T05:31:20Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. It’s not a superstition, it’s super factual. When someone gets their hopes up and things go badly, their immediate future mental state is extremely negative. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/106 "2026-11-05T06:15:54Z")
Speculation on what the 2027 Congress tries should probably move towards the post-election thread: > [@The New 2027 Congress](http://boards.straightdope.com/t/the-new-2027-congress/1034394): > > Let’s get to it! Projections, priorities, questions, concerns…with a farewell wave to Susan Collins… waving_hand:t4 My first questions, who will be Speaker of the House? Senate majority leader? This is a suggestion, not an instruction - note the lack of mod-color and all. And credit to all who had faith to predict a Blue Wave, glad to see a chance to turn things around. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/107 "2026-11-05T13:12:23Z")
Especially about the future! ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/108 "2026-11-05T13:24:30Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > Speculation on what the 2027 Congress tries should probably move towards the post-election thread: Yeah, that thread morphed into what I wanted this thread to be. 🤷🏽‍♀️ ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/109 "2026-11-05T16:15:22Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. A variation of Murphy’s Law. See also Sportscaster’s Jinx. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/110 "2026-11-05T16:25:59Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. This would be me during this election. I posted very negative expectations largely because in past cycles I was much more hopeful and saw things go very much the other way. Particularly after 2024 I didn’t feel I could handle getting too hopeful just to have them crushed again. The multiple people here who were posting incredibly optimistic outcomes made me even more anxious since I saw it at dangerous overconfidence. 55 D in the Senate is one that comment to mind. And look what happened. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2026, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/111 "2026-11-05T17:02:35Z")
As a _competitor_, overconfidence can be as debilitating as underconfidence. Either can have you making non-optimal plays. As a _spectator_, I’ll argue it’s more the pessimist / optimist divide. Which I explain as the phenomenon that a pessimist is happy no matter what happens: If the worst, they can gloat about being right. If the best they can be happily surprised at the good luck of living in happier circumstances. It’s a form of bet-hedging. Conversely, an optimist is in effect a double-or-nothing play. You’re either right _and_ living in happy times, or you’re living in sucky times _and_ are suffering the pain of having been wrong. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/112 "2026-11-06T05:47:06Z")
> [@JDYanYan](#): > > theft of American PII from the social security administration What is American PII? ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/113 "2026-11-06T05:52:11Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > > [@bordelond](#): > > > > A lot of people have a tough-to-shake superstition that optimistic predictions directly affect the future negatively. > > It’s not a superstition, it’s super factual. > > When someone gets their hopes up and things go badly, their immediate future mental state is extremely negative. Yeah. It’s more this. Some people want a win-win. If they’re DEM then they suppose/assume/bet that the GOP will win so if that happens at least the DEM was right about that, and if the Democrats win then that person was wrong in their prediction but at least the have lots of DEMs elected. Win-win! ETA: sorry I didn’t remember to add this to my precious post ---
**Author:** ![JDYanYan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jdyanyan/32/21663_2.png) [@JDYanYan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JDYanYan)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/114 "2026-11-06T12:47:30Z")
Personal Identifiable Information > **[HHRG-119-JU13-20260121-SD002-U2.pdf](https://www.congress.gov/119/meeting/house/118875/documents/HHRG-119-JU13-20260121-SD002-U2.pdf)** > > 152.72 KB ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2026, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985/115 "2026-11-06T12:52:04Z")
It’s a January 2026 NY Times article: “DOGE Put Critical Social Security Data at Risk, Whistle-Blower Says” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-2026-us-election/1032985.md?page=5)