# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2026, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/181 "2026-06-17T13:10:11Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > I’ll say tthis - paying reparations to get an end to the conflict is a lot better than giving Iran a tollbooth on the strait. i was worried Trump would go for the latter as it’s less embarrassing. This whole framework is a huge concession to Iran, which is unsurprising as they won the war. Does this MoU specifically prohibit Iran from imposing a toll in the future? I heard an analysis on the BBC yesterday, and their correspondent said Iran has been discussing plans with other countries in the region on how to manage the Strait in the future, including the possibility of tolls. She said, essentially, that this war revealed that Iran has a weapon better than a nuclear bomb. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is devastating to the world economy, without the downsides of massive destruction and death. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2026, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/182 "2026-06-17T15:41:12Z")
I can’t understand what the whole mid-east kerfluflul is all about. Is it just religion? I don’t give a damn what anyone believes in. Sheeeessss, just relax and do your thing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2026, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/183 "2026-06-17T19:06:18Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > China, not Russia I think, but yes. Am I the only one thinking, “Let them have it”? What has decades of being deeply entangled there gotten us? Oil will still flow, because China also wants to make a buck, and that’s the only thing of significant value there. Let them buy the pig in a poke, and spend the next 50 years wasting time, money and lives trying to control it. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/184 "2026-06-18T00:14:37Z")
So when happens if (when) Trump screws Iran out of the promised 300 billion? If it’s going through private companies and Trump is involved, he’s going to steal that money. Iran is going to notice that this promised reconstruction fund is perpetually two weeks away from being ready and at some point they are going to realize that they have been lied to. But if they close the Strait, they would be the bad guys here because Trump will be on TV screaming about how great his deal was and how they are ones who are lying. Meanwhile, a mere 2,000 miles away in Albania, construction will continue on [Epstein Island 2.0](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/16/g-s1-128162/albania-resort-protests-kushner-trump). From the article: > On June 2, Albanian anti-corruption prosecutors froze the bank accounts of a firm that purchased land along this ecologically protected coastline. It’s part of an investigation into fraudulent property titles and it involves a company named Albania Land Development owned by the prominent Qatari brothers Moutaz and Ramez Al-Khayyat, who are [helping finance](https://www.occrp.org/en/news/albania-freezes-assets-in-kushner-resort-probe) and build Kushner and Trump’s luxury resort. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/185 "2026-06-18T01:31:27Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > But if they close the Strait, they would be the bad guys here Bad guys can still block ships or collect tolls from them. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/186 "2026-06-18T01:35:46Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Iran is going to notice that this promised reconstruction fund is perpetually two weeks away from being ready and at some point they are going to realize that they have been lied to. If this whole debacle has taught me anything, it’s that, however villainous Iran’s government is, they ain’t stupid. The chance that they’re putting faith in Trump is 0%. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/187 "2026-06-18T03:14:43Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > The most positive (for US taxpayers) reading is that the $300 billion will be coming from corporations interested in investing in Iran. I thought some of it was gonna come from release of frozen funds? ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/188 "2026-06-18T11:56:18Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > they would be the bad guys here I don’t think they care too much about that. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/189 "2026-06-18T12:30:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I thought some of it was gonna come from release of frozen funds? Here’s the text directly from the MOU, from an article by [NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/text-iran-us-memorandum-understanding-rcna350582) - The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD $300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. It doesn’t state one way or another where the money will be coming from. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/190 "2026-06-18T13:13:04Z")
I’m gonna go with “U.S. Taxpayers”. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/191 "2026-06-18T14:12:49Z")
Re last post, No. Or at least, not directly. Trump really is against foreign aid, even to dictators. The U.S. has a fantasy foreign policy where the means are not aligned with the goals. I’m reading Robert Caro’s biography of Lyndon Johnson, volume 3, and reminded that about half the Republicans, even in the 1950’s, had a fantasy foreign policy. The fantasy then was that you could withdraw from foreign commitments (UN, NATO), save a boatload of money, and then save Eastern Europe from communism without a big bloody war. Now, the 1950’s Republican President was in the real world. Trump is the first president who generally – not just here and there (“Mission Accomplished”) – refuses to accept the real world. So I find making foreign policy predictions and forecasts, however tempting, hard. John Bolton and Barack Obama are both in what I’m calling the foreign policy real world, even if they would often advise the opposite. Trump is in fantasyland. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/192 "2026-06-18T14:17:27Z")
OK, the reality is that Donald Trump is never giving Iran 300 billion of anyone’s dollars. But hypothetically, if he did, it would be U.S. taxpayers that fund that, as directly or indirectly as anyone would care to parse it. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/193 "2026-06-18T14:21:26Z")
He might give them that if he can get away with getting billions of dollars in kickbacks or guaranteeing allies / family get reconstruction contracts. Just as likely he kicks the can down the road and then in 2.5 years the GOP calls the Dems traitors for giving Iran some money that Trump negotiated. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/194 "2026-06-18T14:25:33Z")
I wonder who the ‘regional partners’ are. ISTM that neighboring states in the region might be a bit hesitant to give money to somebody who was recently sending missiles into their country. But I guess we’ll find out in 60 days. Maybe. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/195 "2026-06-18T14:30:26Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > He might give them that if he can get away with getting billions of dollars in kickbacks or guaranteeing allies / family get reconstruction contracts. Yeah, the grift will be strong here. If Iran even gets 10% of that in things actually built they’ll be doing well. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/196 "2026-06-18T15:28:18Z")
Which is something they have probably already considered. Even if they get nothing, it’s a PR victory, and a further grudge to hold against the US. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/197 "2026-06-18T15:30:25Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > Just as likely he kicks the can down the road and then in 2.5 years the GOP calls the Dems traitors for giving Iran some money that Trump negotiated. Oh we already know they WILL do that. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/198 "2026-06-18T18:33:27Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I’m gonna go with “U.S. Taxpayers”. Well, a great solid dependable source says otherwise 🙄 > **[Vance says U.S. isn’t giving Iran ‘a cent’ as he defends Trump peace deal](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/18/vance-iran-war-memo-oil-gas.html)** > > "The only way the Iranians get any of these resources ... is if they comply fully" with the terms of the deal, Vice President JD Vance said. > - **Vane said the United States is not paying the Islamic Republic and that any economic benefits for Iran depend on full compliance with the agreement.** > - **His comments came as the White House faced Republican backlash over whether Trump gave Iran too much in a 14-point memorandum of understanding that includes sanctions relief, access to frozen funds and a proposed $300 billion reconstruction plan.** 🙀 ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/199 "2026-06-18T18:35:39Z")
Strangely, I agree with him, in a sense. That Donald Trump isn’t giving any money to anyone. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2026, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/200 "2026-06-18T19:14:19Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > I don’t think they care too much about that. Certainly but having said that, I don’t think they want to take an action such as closing the Strait that would invite military retaliation. Not when they can sit there doing nothing and probably get attacked again for free. One thing Iran has been getting out of this conflict that should be fairly priceless to them is goodwill from the rest of the world who find themselves saying “maybe Iran isn’t so bad after all”. (Personally, I think the Iranian regime is still terrible in various ways and I wouldn’t be sad to see them go but as far as the propaganda part of the war goes, they won hands down.) > [@bobot](#): > > That Donald Trump isn’t giving any money to anyone. As with any money Trump has touched since taking office, I would encourage the press to follow the money because I am certain the only reason this is a part of the agreement is because it somehow benefits Trump financially. As I speculated upthread, if the money is funnelled through Trump connections in Qatar, it will end up paying for that resort in Albania. Iran isn’t in a position to do anything other than complain if/when they get screwed over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=11)