# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/221 "2026-06-22T03:25:08Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > So its going to be the ideologically committed group that has decades of experience organizing and training non-state actors and is itself designed to be able to act as an autonomous paramilitary serving the ideological goals of the theocrats even if they lose their grip on legitimate power vs everyone else. It’s lucky you used the term “theocrats” else I’d not be sure of which participant in this crisis you were referring to. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/222 "2026-06-22T03:36:00Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The US and China are vying for control over the world, and they are looking for ways to undermine each other. Firstly I remain unconvinced China wants to control the world, rather than just be pre-eminent in their sphere. But secondly, why would they waste bandwidth or resources “undermining” the US whilst the US is blithely shooting themselves in the foot and withdrawing from the world? Whilst historically credited to Napoleon “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake” aligns perfectly with the tactical wisdom expressed in Sun Tzu’s _The Art of War_. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/223 "2026-06-22T03:57:48Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > But secondly, why would they waste bandwidth or resources “undermining” the US whilst the US is blithely shooting themselves in the foot and withdrawing from the world? China cornered the market in rare earth metal refining. Rare earth metals are necessary to make green technologies, computer parts, military technologies, etc. China is also trying to build an international financial system that runs parallel to western dominated financial institutions. The fentanyl crisis in the US is in part intentional on China’s part to undermine the US. The US is trying to control China’s shoreline, its energy imports, trade routes, its ability to build computer chips. Both nations are competing for influence in the global south. This didn’t start with trump, sadly this is the reality of the new cold war. Iran and Venezuela are just pawns in that war. I do like Carneys idea for an alliance of middle powers. Wealthy, industrialized democracies with good human rights offering a third way so nations aren’t forced to pick between an authoritarian China and a white nationalist, imperialistic US. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/224 "2026-06-22T05:29:42Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > China cornered the market in rare earth metal refining. More correctly the US gave China a near monopoly in the trade of “cheap” refined rare earths. Given that rare earths aren’t actually rare, were the US prepared to pay a fair market value (given they are expensive and environmentally hazardous to produce) then alternative refiners could, indeed are being established. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > China is also trying to build an international financial system that runs parallel to western dominated financial institutions. Sounds a prudent strategy to protect their interests rather than propping up the US banking system. You may have noticed it’s carrying a fair bit of debt. When the levee breaks the USD as global reserve currency will go the way of the Spanish Real and British Pound. > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The fentanyl crisis in the US is in part intentional on China’s part to undermine the US. The flow of fentanyl and its ingredients involves a multi-step global supply chain. You want to ignore the demand side. There is an argument that the majority of money made in the fentanyl trade is domiciled in the US. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/225 "2026-06-22T14:28:35Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > More correctly the US gave China a near monopoly in the trade of “cheap” refined rare earths. Given that rare earths aren’t actually rare, were the US prepared to pay a fair market value (given they are expensive and environmentally hazardous to produce) then alternative refiners could, indeed are being established. I recall a line from the TV show “The Americans”, from one of the Soviet agents. “Even in matters of their national security, they can’t help being Americans.” Sure, securing different sources for rare earth elements would be good for US national security, and undercut China’s hold on several key technologies, but paying more is anti-capitalist! Why should we pay a few dollars more for our smartphones?!? That’s Anti-American!!! ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/226 "2026-06-22T15:56:47Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > More correctly the US gave China a near monopoly in the trade of “cheap” refined rare earths. Given that rare earths aren’t actually rare, were the US prepared to pay a fair market value (given they are expensive and environmentally hazardous to produce) then alternative refiners could, indeed are being established. ‘the capitalists will sell us the rope we use to hang them with’ has a lot of truth to it. China has weaponized the weaknesses of capitalism against the west. As a result they have a near monopoly on rare earth refining, they’ve stolen a lot of IP from foreign nations, and they sell 21st century technology at a loss to corner markets. Companies only look at short term profits, and China exploited that weakness to gain a lot of long term leverage. > [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Sounds a prudent strategy to protect their interests rather than propping up the US banking system. You may have noticed it’s carrying a fair bit of debt. When the levee breaks the USD as global reserve currency will go the way of the Spanish Real and British Pound. The point is the US and China are locked into a cold war for world influence, and this is one of the tactics being used. > [@penultima\_thule](#): > > The flow of fentanyl and its ingredients involves a multi-step global supply chain. You want to ignore the demand side. There is an argument that the majority of money made in the fentanyl trade is domiciled in the US. > **[Investigation Findings: The CCP's Role in the Fentanyl Crisis](https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/media/investigations/investigation-findings-ccps-role-fentanyl-crisis)** > > WATCH: Video summary of the Select Committee's findings on the CCP's role in the American fentanyl epidemic. > **[Is China using fentanyl as a weapon against the United States? Global...](https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/esta-china-usando-el-fentanilo-como-arma-contra-estados-unidos)** > > The Beijing authorities have been permissive of the illegal trade in drug processing elements. > It must be considered that China seeks to displace US hegemony and become the world’s leading power. Through the fentanyl strategy, it succeeds in weakening American society and forcing the United States to concentrate its efforts on this crisis, while at the same time benefiting economically, since precursor chemicals are extremely cheap to manufacture for the Chinese industry Chemistry and acquire a high value when converted into synthetic opioids. Although there is no conclusive evidence of direct Chinese government involvement, several pieces of evidence would suggest its involvement. > > The annual loss of more than 70,000 people between the ages of 18 and 45 represents a significant impact on life expectancy, the country’s productivity and even its ability to recruit. What is undeniable is that China is playing a key [role](https://disidentia.com/la-otra-epidemia-que-viene-de-china/) in the fentanyl crisis, its efforts to combat it are minimal, and the main one affected by this status is, coincidentally, its biggest adversary: the United States. > > Evidence supporting the idea of geopolitical intent includes the findings of the aforementioned committee of the U.S. congress , which established that the Chinese government directly subsidizes the manufacture and export of illicit fentanyl materials through tax rebates. In addition, it provides monetary subsidies to companies that openly traffic in these materials and allows the free sale of fentanyl precursors on the internet. This crisis has also consolidated organized criminal groups with ties to the PCC as world leaders in money laundering. Despite US efforts and formal indictments, the Chinese government has not prosecuted precursor manufacturers or cooperated with US authorities. There are less dangerous synthetic opioids that could be made instead of fentanyl and fentanyl analogues. Demand exists, but there are other versions of opioids that don’t cause mass death the way fentanyl does. Also they could go back to opioids derived from poppies like heroin also. Heroin is still widely used in Europe for example, fentanyl is mostly a north American phenomena. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/227 "2026-06-25T00:08:46Z")
Trouble in “Paradise”- some GOP Senators are in a mini revolt- > **[Trump berates Senate Republicans over Iran war vote after calling off bill...](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-republican-senators-968c1454ede461d2db413790670c07df)** > > President Donald Trump has berated Senate Republicans during his visit to the Capitol for allowing a vote to block his war in Iran, further escalating a feud that has diverted GOP efforts to focus on election-year affordability issues and brought... > Invited by Florida Sen. Rick Scott to speak at a GOP luncheon in the Capitol, Trump had signaled ahead of time that he would use the closed-door meeting to push senators to pass his [proof-of-citizenship voting bill](https://apnews.com/article/voting-trump-midterms-citizenship-republican-senate-d4acd3468c410a8842a0fe3e3b9cda57). But the conversation was more focused on Tuesday’s vote to approve the war powers resolution, a mostly symbolic measure that allows Congress to rebuke the administration’s military actions. The House passed its own version of the resolution earlier this month. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/228 "2026-06-25T01:17:42Z")
I predict that Trump isn’t going to abide by this. His negotiations aren’t going to be fruitful, he’s going to escalate the war, and the Republicans in congress are going to have to decide what they are going to do about a _clear_ violation of their authority as a co-equal branch of government (and the one with the power to authorize war). ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/229 "2026-06-25T02:22:06Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Republicans in congress are going to have to decide what they are going to do about a _clear_ violation of their authority as a co-equal branch of government One bag of fuck-all (sweet variety) coming up! ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/230 "2026-06-25T04:19:48Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > One bag of fuck-all (sweet variety) coming up! They already dont like trumps near-fascist “proof of citizenship” bill. They didnt pass it already. So, they just wont pass it again. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 10:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/231 "2026-06-25T10:43:30Z")
Looks like Trump scared them. > **[Senate Republicans hold new vote on war powers after Trump berated them at...](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-republican-senators-968c1454ede461d2db413790670c07df?utm_source=copy&utm_medium=share)** > > Senate Republicans who were berated by President Donald Trump on Wednesday over opposition to his war in Iran held a late-night vote to try to appease him, voting down a war powers resolution a day after a similar measure passed. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/232 "2026-06-25T11:59:33Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > Looks like Trump scared them Fucking Pusillanimous - the whole lot of ‘em! ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/233 "2026-06-25T22:22:41Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > Fucking Pusillanimous - the whole lot of ‘em! Yep. Even if Trump was going to ignore their Resolution anyway (as @Moriarty suggested), they just couldn’t hold firm. Carrots? Sticks? Both? It’s unlikely to be ‘fear of the voters’ as even THEIR constituents are likely to be like the rest of the USA (strong majority anti-Iran-war). ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2026, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/234 "2026-06-25T23:40:09Z")
Meanwhile, Iran is still creating havoc in the strait. > **[Iran behind attack on cargo vessel near Oman in Strait of Hormuz, U.S....](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/iran-ghalibaf-trump-us-farm-products-assets.html)** > > "The only crop we're harvesting is what you planted: decades of mistrust," Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post. I predict that the cease fire doesn’t hold, and we’re back to U.S. missiles firing on Iranian targets soon. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2026, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/235 "2026-06-26T00:23:29Z")
I still think Trump feels burned and will just abandon the Strait rather than go back to fighting. He’s like the kid who touches the hot stove and then stays away for years. At least, that’s my guess. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2026, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/236 "2026-06-26T18:46:50Z")
Round and Round we go- > **[Trump accuses Iran of ceasefire breach after Strait of Hormuz attack](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg54g0ry0vo)** > > A Singapore-flagged ship was struck crossing the waterway on Thursday, prompting a large-scale evacuation to be paused. > US President Donald Trump has accused Iran of a “foolish violation” of its truce with Washington after a cargo ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz was attacked. > > No casualties were reported after the ship was struck by a projectile on Thursday. In response, the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its planned evacuation of more than 11,000 sailors stranded in the key shipping lane. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2026, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/237 "2026-06-26T21:51:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I still think Trump feels burned and will just abandon the Strait rather than go back to fighting. He’s like the kid who touches the hot stove and then stays away for years. At least, that’s my guess. Didn’t take long for me to be proven wrong… [https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/20/world/iran-trump-israel-lebanon?smid=bs-share](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/20/world/iran-trump-israel-lebanon?smid=bs-share) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2026, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/238 "2026-06-26T22:30:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Didn’t take long for me to be proven wrong… Since there is a paywall, a couple of relevant paragraphs would be nice. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2026, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/239 "2026-06-26T23:04:36Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > a couple of relevant paragraphs would be nice. In short, Trump didn’t abandon the Strait. The U.S. did go back to fighting. > **[U.S. Launches Fresh Attacks on Iran — The Wall Street Journal](https://apple.news/AlQMMetlnQqaTx9O29K1V0A)** > > Strikes follow drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to unwind the fragile ceasefire deal between Washington and Tehran ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/240 "2026-06-27T04:57:51Z")
Not a paywall issue for me since I subscribe but your link goes to an article from 6 days ago. I suspect you linked to the wrong article. ??? Headline - **Vance Heads to Talks as Strait of Hormuz Re-emerges as Point of Tension** Doesn’t seem to relate to the point you were making. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=13)