# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/241 "2026-06-27T09:15:10Z")
I think it’s a live blog so it changes. I should have used a different article. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/242 "2026-06-27T12:36:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I still think Trump feels burned and will just abandon the Strait rather than go back to fighting. I agree. He wants an off-ramp so he can move the goalposts and claim victory. But to do that he has to get the strait reopened – which will cost us. I’m surprised he hasn’t thrown Hegseth under the bus. The fact that he didn’t is telling. ---
**Author:** ![Ferris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ferris/32/11573_2.png) [@Ferris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ferris)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/243 "2026-06-27T12:43:01Z")
Has ‘Operation Epic Fury’ officially finished, or is it ongoing? I had some anagrams for it: Ape-torn orifice? Yup! Ciao, puny profiteer! Crap! I notify Europe… Our inept piracy foe Pity poor urine face ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/244 "2026-06-27T15:41:14Z")
I’m starting to wonder if we’ll see a split between the United States and Israel. Israel has proved itself willing to pursue their own interests even when it goes against the interests of the United States. Worse yet, Netanyahu has demonstrated to the world that Trump has no control over Israel. Despite Trump’s claims, Netanyahu does not follow his orders. How embarrassing for Trump. Trump got himself into a quagmire from which he cannot exit without a significant loss of face. He won’t get support for a full invasion and he lacks the ability to negotiate effectively. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/245 "2026-06-27T15:47:34Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > I’m starting to wonder if we’ll see a split between the United States and Israel. How could we not? IMO, at least. Who’s left in the US that really supports this war and this Israeli government? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/246 "2026-06-27T16:06:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > How could we not? IMO, at least. Who’s left in the US that really supports this war and this Israeli government? We have the likes of Mike Huckabee who said, “Without Israel, without the Jewish foundation, there would not be America. We owe our very existence to what happened in this land.” Huckabee represents a contingent of Evangelical Christians, a core demographic for MAGA, who are simply crazy for Israel because it plays a role in the End Times and the return of Jesus Christ (among other reasons). Trump’s going to have a hard time separating the United States from Israel without alienating a significant portion of his base. Given that long term thinking isn’t his strong suit, he might very well do it, but I have my doubts. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/247 "2026-06-27T16:18:29Z")
Trump won’t, but the next president? I think it will be a major part of the campaign. Maybe even on both sides. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Nerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed655f/32.png) [@Ancient\_Nerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Nerd)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2026, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/248 "2026-06-27T19:22:30Z")
> [@Odesio](#): > > Netanyahu has demonstrated to the world that Trump has no control over Israel. Israel was not involved in the negotiations that came up with the MOU. This is something el donald seems to do a lot of. He commits people to things without bothering to include them in the negotiations. Did anyone ask the Palestinians what they thought about his ‘Abraham Accords’? ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2026, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/249 "2026-06-28T02:00:23Z")
And lil Marco blabbing about a concept of a plan in talks between Lebanon and Israel leaving out Hezbollah. It’s…insane. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/250 "2026-06-29T14:40:31Z")
> [@Ancient\_Nerd](#): > > Did anyone ask the Palestinians what they thought about his ‘Abraham Accords’? No, they did not, and I commented at the time about how stupid that was. But Trump does this all the time. Negotiating about Ukraine with Russia, without Ukraine there was another example. It’s well known that Trump hates multilateral talks, because it’s harder for him to bully other countries. One-on-one, he thinks he can just tell them what to do, and they have to agree because the US is so powerful. He just doesn’t get that actual negotiations about complex issues involving multiple countries is an inherently difficult problem. He wants everything to be simple, “I’m the boss, do it!” kind of things. I mean, he really seems to think he can fix the Iran problems with a memo that takes up about a page of text. Like 40 plus years of animosity, economic warfare and actual warfare can be fixed with fewer words than an elementary school book report. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/251 "2026-06-29T14:46:01Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > He wants everything to be simple That’s the current dominant mindset of the Right and the cause of many of Humanity’s problems. As H. L. Mencken put it “_For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong._” ---
**Author:** ![moes\_lotion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ba0ec/32.png) [@moes\_lotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moes_lotion)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/252 "2026-06-29T16:34:39Z")
Not to be overly pedantic, but [this link](https://quoteinvestigator.com/2016/07/17/solution/#b8f4038a-b6bd-499c-a39b-7a030a1305ad) gives the full quote as: “Explanations exist; they have existed for all time; there is always a well-known solution to every human problem—neat, plausible, and wrong.” ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/253 "2026-06-29T20:11:51Z")
Interesting thanks!, I got my quote from Goodreads, either he paraphrased himself in another work or Goodreads is wrong (probably the later) ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [June 29, 2026, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/254 "2026-06-29T20:21:37Z")
Deleted off topic ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/255 "2026-07-17T01:13:02Z")
Tonight the president said that we’re winning the war. Do you agree with the president, @Babale and @Wesley_Clark (and anyone else who supported this war)? ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/256 "2026-07-17T01:32:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Do you agree with the president, @Babale and @Wesley_Clark (and anyone else who supported this war)? AFAIK, @Babale hasnt even posted here, and which post has @Wesley_Clark said he supported this war? The US can of course “win”, but what would be the cost? My question is- why the hell is the “war” even being fought? I mean, Iran is evil, sure, but why now? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/257 "2026-07-17T01:54:30Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > why the hell is the “war” even being fought? In my opinion, it is so that those with insider knowledge can make profits on oil futures/oil shorts. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/258 "2026-07-17T02:03:49Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > In my opinion, it is so that those with insider knowledge can make profits on oil futures/oil shorts. Not impossible, and makes more sense that trumps lies or Iran’s lies. ---
**Author:** ![DWMarch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dwmarch/32/1010_2.png) [@DWMarch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DWMarch)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/259 "2026-07-17T03:23:49Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > The US can of course “win”, but what would be the cost? That’s what I think would be funny about this “war” if it wasn’t so tragic. Trump is just no good at war. He thinks he’s a gangster but he’s really a wimp and he doesn’t have the stomach for when things get real. Yes, the US could curb-stomp Iran. However, in order to do so, there will be losses. Planes, ships (notice how aircraft carriers are staying way the hell away from where the “action” is) and most of all, soldiers/sailors/Marines will have to make the ultimate sacrifice. And somehow Trump understands that if the headline is “12 more soldiers die in Trump’s dumbshit war” there’s no way to spin that into “we’re the winningest winners who ever winned!” He’s already announced victory so many times and assured the public that Iran has been bombed like never before. Okay then, what the fuck are you bombing now? And why, if they were so thoroughly defeated then? Trump thought Iran was going to be Venezuela 2.0, one punch and they’d be begging for mercy. Iran turns out to not be such a pushover and now Trump just has no idea what to do. He’s not strong enough to win and the generals won’t let him push the “instant victory” button so now he’s got to figure out how to get out of a situation he was never really all that interested in once it started looking like actual work. What a clusterfuck. I think the best hope for the future is that Trump dies, Vance somehow manages to humble himself enough to pursue peace and accepts whatever terrible deal the Iranian regime is willing to offer. The alternative is that Vance is the one who orders US troops into the meat grinder and I don’t think that’s the kind of President he wants to be. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/260 "2026-07-17T04:07:18Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > Yes, the US could curb-stomp Iran. However, in order to do so, there will be losses. Planes, ships (notice how aircraft carriers are staying way the hell away from where the “action” is) and most of all, soldiers/sailors/Marines will have to make the ultimate sacrifice Not to mention the $80Billion or so it has cost the US. > [@DWMarch](#): > > Trump thought Iran was going to be Venezuela 2.0, one punch and they’d be begging for mercy. Iran turns out to not be such a pushover and now Trump just has no idea what to do. He’s not strong enough to win… Yep. trump is like Hitler in the last stages of WW2. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=14)