# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2026, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/261 "2026-07-17T06:26:43Z")
Fences, bunkers, fortifying the front door, private army (ICE), wonder weapons ( perhaps more Putin). Lashing out at imagined enemies, absolute devotion required. He’s got old 88 down to a tee. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2026, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/262 "2026-07-18T18:23:17Z")
He also tried to buy his own army of insurectionists/traitors for $1.776 billion. Would they be the SS or the Gestapo? But if he had that cash, they wouldn’t see a dime of it. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2026, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/263 "2026-07-18T19:11:53Z")
> [@enipla](#): > > He also tried to buy his own army of insurectionists/traitors for $1.776 billion. Would they be the SS or the Gestapo? Hessians, maybe? ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2026, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/264 "2026-07-18T20:57:57Z")
**Moderating:** Gentle reminder, this thread is about the Iran War, we have about a hundred other threads comparing Trump to Hitler. Please take the sidetrack to one of those. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2026, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/265 "2026-07-19T12:01:22Z")
Sorry ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2026, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/266 "2026-07-22T14:11:14Z")
DJT is getting bored and impatient. I am getting quite fearful that at least one nuke is going to be dropped. I agree that he thought it would be one punch KO like Venezuela. Simple men think in simple terms. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2026, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/267 "2026-07-22T14:13:49Z")
His latest threats smell like desperation, I don’t know about nukes but he sure sounds like he will up the level of inhumanity another notch. ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2026, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/268 "2026-07-22T14:33:48Z")
Yep! The closer we get to the mid-terms, the more desperate he will get. If he thinks they’ll just believe any crap he says or knuckle under to his bullying, he not only knows zero history, he has a big and unpleasant surprise coming. Iran has him by the short hairs right now, and they know it. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2026, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/269 "2026-07-22T14:36:05Z")
Who woulda thunk that putting an uncultured idiot with no knowledge of history in such a position of power could result in something like this? ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [July 22, 2026, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/270 "2026-07-22T14:36:56Z")
The people responsible don’t do a lot of “thunking”. LOL ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/271 "2026-08-10T15:30:38Z")
Iran has the stronger negotiating position and has for months - they’ve essentially won this war, and dragging it out just increases Trump’s personal desperation to find a way out. They may have even calculated that they can keep this going until a new president comes in in '29 who will have the political mandate to apologize for the war, functionally surrender to Iran, and normalize a diplomatic and financial relationship. Imagine how the '28 election campaign will go if the war is still continuing like this, with American stocks totally depleted and gas prices having risen for multiple years - every Democrat will be insisting this was Trump’s stupid war, that it was a catastrophic mistake to even entertain the idea of war, that we should apologize to Iran and openly admit we lost. For a new administration, Iran might drop the tolls in exchange for no more sanctions, an end to the US alliance with Israel (likely coming anyway, at least in some form), some reparations, an apology, and normal diplomatic and trade relations ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/272 "2026-08-10T15:37:51Z")
I’m struggling to see how Iran has gained anything other than the ability to charge tolls in the Strait. Their military and many other things have taken a hammering. Their neighboring Gulf states are as hostile to them as ever. There will be more and more of a movement to shift trade away from the Strait as much as possible. They’re still struggling with drought and inflation. How much money are those tolls going to get for the regime anyway? I’d guess less than the regime-optimists may think. Rather than “USA lost, Iran won,” it looks more like “both sides lost, but Iran lost a little less.” ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/273 "2026-08-10T15:58:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > that we should apologize to Iran and openly admit we lost. I dunno if campaigning on THAT would be wise if you want American voters to elect you. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/274 "2026-08-10T16:02:52Z")
U.S. objectives at the start of the war, as far as they can be discerned, were regime change or at least a stop to Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s objectives at the start of the war were to stop those 2 things. Those things haven’t happened so, Iran won the war. Winning a war doesn’t mean that you end up better than when the war started, which is very rare, Vietnam for example, ended up a massacred, contaminated, bombed out place, but with the end of South Vietnam and the retreat of U.S. troops it won the war. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/275 "2026-08-10T16:04:09Z")
Let’s see how the public feels after 2 more years of pointless war and skyrocketing prices. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/276 "2026-08-10T16:06:54Z")
They will probably couch it in less humiliating verbiage than “we should apologize to Iran and openly admit we lost.” “We’ll negotiate a just and durable peace with Iran undoing the crimes of the previous administration” or something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/277 "2026-08-10T16:42:08Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Winning a war doesn’t mean that you end up better than when the war started, which is very rare, Vietnam for example, ended up a massacred, contaminated, bombed out place, but with the end of South Vietnam and the retreat of U.S. troops it won the war. Exactly. Make no mistake, Iran has been hammered. The damage done will be a long time repairing, the cost to the country will be staggering and Iran is not going to be a stable land of happiness and joy for quite some time. But they survived (or at least are so far surviving) an attempt by a world super-power + a regional super-power to pound them into submission. That’s a win anyway you cut it. It might be an ugly, badly damaged win. Who knows, it could be eventually be a pyrrhic win. But regime survival IS a win under the circumstances. If Iran actually pulls off a recognized toll of some sort on the Strait of Hormuz that would be more than a survival win, that would be a geopolitical coup. To be clear, no matter the mild schadenfreude I would derive from watching this American regime do an international face-plant of that magnitude, I really hope this does not happen. It would be very bad - Iran under the mullahs is a bad actor who nobody needs to have controlling the flow of any traffic and the precedent would be awful. But if it happens you are basically handing reparations to an enemy you attacked and couldn’t take down. Even if the revenue generated turns out to be a pittance it is a big fat poke in the eye to the entire world and hands Iran future actual political leverage that before they only held theoretically. If it is more than a pittance, it is extra revenue that Iran will gratefully accept to help rebuild their military assets and strengthen the regime. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/278 "2026-08-10T16:55:32Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > If Iran actually pulls off a recognized toll of some sort on the Strait of Hormuz that would be more than a survival win, that would be a geopolitical coup. I was going to add this in my post and forgot, the ability to toll the Strait, beyond any monetary income it provides, is an incredible geopolitical tool: You do something Iran doesn’t like? tolls rise for you and only for you. Do Iran a favor or two and tolls may be lowered for you… ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/279 "2026-08-10T17:00:08Z")
I can see why Trump proposed a few months ago that the US would control the straight and charge tolls. This is a truly Trumpian method of grifting! ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/280 "2026-08-10T17:06:25Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > I was going to add this in my post and forgot, the ability to toll the Strait, beyond any monetary income it provides, is an incredible geopolitical tool: > You do something Iran doesn’t like? tolls rise for you and only for you. > Do Iran a favor or two and tolls may be lowered for you… Yup. Your government criticizes Iran’s human rights? Tolls just went up. This war will strenthen their regime. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=15)