# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/281 "2026-08-10T21:05:46Z")
Well, this should be an interesting few days: **Iran Rules Out Talks With Trump, Says Will Wait Until His Term Ends In 2029** [https://www.news18.com/world/iran-rules-out-talks-with-trump-says-will-wait-until-his-term-ends-in-2029-10264715.html](https://www.news18.com/world/iran-rules-out-talks-with-trump-says-will-wait-until-his-term-ends-in-2029-10264715.html) > Shakeri also outlined what he described as Iran’s approach to dealing with Washington. > > “The path to victory is neither fighting nor a deal — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, up to the point of victory," he posted. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/282 "2026-08-10T21:14:53Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Iran Rules Out Talks With Trump, Says Will Wait Until His Term Ends In 2029 Donald will be incandescently furious. He _ **will** _ want to nuke Iran for this. They’ve said he’s contemptable and therefore irrelevant. He will find that intolerable. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/283 "2026-08-10T22:07:42Z")
How did the saying go? know you enemy and know yourself and you’d never lose a battle? Trump did not know his enemy, thought they’d fold easily. Trump did not know “himself” overestimating the ammo on hand and is now running out of missiles. Who could’ve predicted he’d lose? ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/284 "2026-08-10T22:22:05Z")
Wow. The other day Trump mentioned chess, a game of strategy that Trump would be lucky to spell correctly, let alone actually play. So did Iran just say “Check” or “Checkmate”? ---
**Author:** ![Palooka](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/palooka/32/2902_2.png) [@Palooka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palooka)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/285 "2026-08-10T22:56:28Z")
Can Iran endure the blockade of their oil exports to 2029? ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/286 "2026-08-10T23:22:34Z")
That may be the critical point, they seem to think they can. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2026, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/287 "2026-08-10T23:54:45Z")
I am reminded of the saying about how in Europe a hundred miles is a long distance, and in the US a hundred years is a long time. Time is tight here in the US, maybe a few years isn’t so imposing in Iran. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/288 "2026-08-11T00:49:11Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Well, this should be an interesting few days: > > **Iran Rules Out Talks With Trump, Says Will Wait Until His Term Ends In 2029** > > [https://www.news18.com/world/iran-rules-out-talks-with-trump-says-will-wait-until-his-term-ends-in-2029-10264715.html](https://www.news18.com/world/iran-rules-out-talks-with-trump-says-will-wait-until-his-term-ends-in-2029-10264715.html) > > > Shakeri also outlined what he described as Iran’s approach to dealing with Washington. > > > > “The path to victory is neither fighting nor a deal — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, up to the point of victory," he posted. I called it a few hours before! > [@Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/271): > > Iran has the stronger negotiating position and has for months - they’ve essentially won this war, and dragging it out just increases Trump’s personal desperation to find a way out. They may have even calculated that they can keep this going until a new president comes in in '29 who will have the political mandate to apologize for the war, functionally surrender to Iran, and normalize a diplomatic and financial relationship. Imagine how the '28 election campaign will go if the war is still conti… ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/289 "2026-08-11T01:14:04Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Iran Rules Out Talks With Trump, Says Will Wait Until His Term Ends In 2029 That’s a shit fucking link that immediately threw 15,000 ads including ones with noise. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![WOOKINPANUBv.2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wookinpanubv.2/32/3260_2.png) [@WOOKINPANUBv.2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WOOKINPANUBv.2)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/290 "2026-08-11T03:27:38Z")
Someone should erect giant versions of the Trump “I did that” stickers all along the banks of the strait. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/291 "2026-08-11T19:59:17Z")
One thing I just thought of now; for years, there’s been a Republican narrative that Iran has some large number of “sleeper cells” in the US, poised and ready to commit acts of terror. This was one of the excuses they used for cancelling the Obama nuclear deal. But this war kind of puts the lie to that. After 9/11, I expected there to be a wave of such terror attacks around the US, because that’s what I would have done if I were in charge of it all. But when nothing happened, it became clear that the terrorists simply did not have the organizational reach to do that. Now, it seems like Iran is the same way. If they did have terror cells in the US, why hasn’t there been a single real attack? Or even an attempt? If Iran is already being bombed, what’s holding them back? ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2026, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/292 "2026-08-11T20:02:57Z")
The fact that the US is still busy shooting itself in the foot, and Iran is winning handily without taking that risk? Not arguing that there are such cells, but it could be an issue of timing. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/293 "2026-08-12T00:17:58Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Now, it seems like Iran is the same way. There have been some hacking attempts on the Water Supply. > **[Why hackers are targeting America’s water systems and what ASU is doing about...](https://news.asu.edu/20260811-science-and-technology-why-hackers-are-targeting-americas-water-systems-and-what-asu-doing)** > > Cyberattacks targeting water systems across the United States have exposed vulnerabilities in the technology controlling critical infrastructure. While drinking water has remained safe, recent incidents have disrupted operations, caused water... > Cyberattacks [targeting water](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-water-systems-cyberattacks-iran-security-gaps/) systems across the United States have exposed vulnerabilities in the technology controlling critical infrastructure. > > While drinking water has remained safe, recent incidents have disrupted operations, caused water pressure losses and forced utility workers to intervene manually, [raising questions](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/us/politics/water-supply-warnings.html) about what could happen if a future attack goes further. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/294 "2026-08-12T00:23:58Z")
But you don’t need sleeper cells in the US for that. Hackers can target anything connected to the internet from almost anywhere in the world. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/295 "2026-08-12T00:29:06Z")
And for the same reason, there’s no reason to assume it’s Iran. We certainly can’t trust any claims by the present American government’s that it is. Could be Russia, could be US dissidents, could be Trump (either for propaganda purposes or [pure spite](https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/03/climate/trump-california-water-dams-reservoirs)), could be someone else. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/296 "2026-08-12T00:33:56Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > And for the same reason, there’s no reason to assume it’s Iran. We certainly can’t trust any claims by the present American government’s that it is. There is good reason to suspect- > **[U.S. investigating if Iran was behind cyberattack on water systems in 7...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-investigating-iran-cyberattack-minnesota-water-systems/)** > > Malicious cyber activity affected technology at water systems in at least seven states this week, including Minnesota, leading authorities to dig into whether Iranian actors are behind the attack, CBS News has learned. > Investigators are probing to determine whether the activity is the work of Iranian hackers, according to U.S. officials and sources familiar with the incident. Sources cautioned that since they had not definitively attributed the attack, their assessment could change as additional technical evidence is collected. They are also probing whether the actor could have attempted to appear Iran-based as a way of stirring the pot amid the ongoing [U.S. conflict with Iran](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-strait-of-hormuz-kuwait-jordan-air-base/). and that is not from trump , who claims > Even as the investigation continues, President Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is to blame. Instead, he [pointed the finger at Minnesota](https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/trump-blames-minnesota-for-water-system-cyberattacks/) and its Democratic governor, Tim Walz, who is no stranger to criticism from the president. > > “I think that Minnesota is behind it,” Mr. Trump said during a televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Friday, July 31. “You know who’s behind it? Minnesota. Because they’re grossly incompetent. I think the governor’s behind it. I don’t think there was an Iranian cyberattack. I think that Minnesota ought to get its act together.” > > “They like to say, ‘Oh, it was Iran.’ Iran should be so lucky. Iran’s got bigger problems than worrying about Minnesota,” the president said. > > Following Mr. Trump’s accusations, Walz [said on social media](https://x.com/GovTimWalz/status/2083235436990705970) that the Trump administration “took an axe” to the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and “left the U.S. exposed to cyber attacks.” That last bit from Walz is true. Of course it is early in the investigations stage. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/297 "2026-08-12T00:34:08Z")
Russian hackers helping out Iran is entirely possible. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2026, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/298 "2026-08-12T12:36:28Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > If they did have terror cells in the US, why hasn’t there been a single real attack? Or even an attempt? If Iran is already being bombed, what’s holding them back? A couple of terror attacks by Iranian operatives here in the US would firmly put the majority of Americans in favor of massive destruction of Iran. Right now, they know that Trump does not have popular support in his handling of the war, and I’m sure they want to keep it that way. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2026, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/299 "2026-09-21T22:08:11Z")
At this point, with the midterms rapidly approaching a possible strategy for Iran would be to put a favorable settlement in front of the U.S. and say “choose, this or we escalate at max so gas prices absolutely kill you in the polls”. Of course that would be a good strategy if you could trust Trump to abide any such settlement, so the question is, does Iran go all out to get gas prices up and utterly destroy the Republicans in the polls or just keeps things simmering as they are now and waits for a better occasion? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/300 "2026-09-22T14:01:47Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > At this point, with the midterms rapidly approaching a possible strategy for Iran would be to put a favorable settlement in front of the U.S. and say “choose, I don’t think Iran has much of an incentive to deal with Trump. Partly because they simply couldn’t trust that he would abide by any deal made. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=16)