# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [September 22, 2026, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/321 "2026-09-22T21:23:24Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > I predict he’ll wait to lose Republican control of congress in November. Demand the Democratic congress approve and fund further strikes on Iran. Get denied. Accuse Democrats of hating America. Order the military to stand down and return home. Strut around the chessboard claiming to be victor and victim. This seems a reasonable prediction. He DOES love presenting himself as the victim, and being the victim of both Evil Iranians and Godless-Communist-Dumocrats must be something of a dream come true. He’s probably already fantasizing about it. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2026, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/322 "2026-09-23T02:43:38Z")
> [@CaveMike](#): > > I was saying the US should withdraw unilaterally, then threaten and bribe Iran to unblockade the strait as well. Sanctions? They always work, right? 🤪 ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2026, 1:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/323 "2026-09-23T13:04:26Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > This seems a reasonable prediction. Wasted no time: > **[Iran war won't end until after US midterm elections, says Trump](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ydld0gykpo)** > > The president also said oil prices won't come down until after the November races, claiming without evidence that Iran wants to impact the election. ---
**Author:** ![Eric1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3bc359/32.png) [@Eric1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eric1)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2026, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/324 "2026-09-23T13:32:14Z")
I wonder if Trump said this before or after the Iranian delegation in New York was offered up to meet to negotiate reopening the strait of Hormuz. I guess they happened almost simultaneously? Naturally I realize neither is in good faith and just preening but honestly wanted to inquire about my question. ---
**Author:** ![Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/q.q.switcheroo/32/5713_2.png) [@Q.Q.Switcheroo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Q.Q.Switcheroo)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2026, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/325 "2026-09-23T13:39:32Z")
> [@Eric1](#): > > I guess they happened almost simultaneously? Now I’m picturing a sitcomesque scenario where Trump and Iran’s president told each other “We need to talk!” in unison… ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2026, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/326 "2026-09-24T21:48:35Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > “choose, this or we escalate at max so gas prices absolutely kill you in the polls A better plan would be to say, “If you vote out the Republican Menace, we’ll re-open the Strait.” ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/327 "2026-09-25T15:09:45Z")
That could work, at least it doesn’t depend on the (inexistent) honor of DJT. On the other hand it could backfire by making the Dems look aligned with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/328 "2026-09-25T15:17:43Z")
Yes, but to play that card, the Republicans would actually have to tell their potential voters about Iran’s offer. That’s dangerously close to telling them the truth; who knows how they’ll react? ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/329 "2026-09-25T15:56:19Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > A better plan would be to say, “If you vote out the Republican Menace, we’ll re-open the Strait.” This is already implied, but stating it would backfire. It gives the Pubs the campaign talking point of “Are you voting with Iran or America?” ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/330 "2026-09-25T17:24:53Z")
My hope when this war broke out was that it would damage both the Trump administration and the Iranian regime. Its like when Iran and Iraq went to war in 1980, some people’s POV was hopefully it will weaken both governments. Neither side would win, but they’d both emerge weaker. To a large degree, this war seems to have succeeded in weakening both governments. gas prices have gone up and Trump’s approval has dropped quite a bit. Hopefully the GOP loses the midterms and the democrats are able to get ‘some’ accountability and blocking of Trump’s agenda in 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile a lot of Iran’s military capacity has been degraded, as has its internal repression apparatus. They’ve also helped build a coalition of arab nations, Israel and the west against them. Iran being willing and able to close both the straits of hormuz and bab al mandab anytime they want isn’t something the world will just sit by and allow to happen. 30% of fossil fuels pass through that. The world didn’t let Saddam Hussein conquer Kuwait and try to conquer Saudi Arabia in 1990 due to its impact on global energy supplies, and I don’t see the world letting Iran and its proxies control major trade routes forever. So hopefully, the end result of all this is that both the Iranian government and the GOP administration in the US emerge weaker from this war. This isn’t the end of the war, just another stage in a long term process of regime change in iran. Hopefully the GOP lose big in 2026 due to the war and its effect on fossil fuel prices, a lot of Iran’s military capabilities have been weakened, and hopefully a stronger regional and global coalition builds against Iran due to all this which makes the Iranian regime weaker in the years ahead. ---
**Author:** ![Ancient\_Nerd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ed655f/32.png) [@Ancient\_Nerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ancient_Nerd)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2026, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/331 "2026-09-25T20:49:57Z")
They will probably look for something similar to what they did in 1980 with the embassy hostage crisis. They will try to embarrass the president as much as possible. They made Carter look weak. With el donald’s ego, there are a lot of possibilities. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/332 "2026-09-26T03:01:03Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Iran being willing and able to close both the straits of hormuz and bab al mandab anytime they want isn’t something the world will just sit by and allow to happen. The world (and even the US in particular) has the stated preference that allowing Iran to choke the global economy is intolerable but every day shows the revealed preference that they arent willing to send mass amounts of people to die over it. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/333 "2026-09-26T04:05:11Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > The world (and even the US in particular) has the stated preference that allowing Iran to choke the global economy is intolerable but every day shows the revealed preference that they arent willing to send mass amounts of people to die over it. I imagine Trump feels the walls closing in and I wonder what he might do if he starts feeling as though a loss of control is imminent. ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/334 "2026-09-26T04:57:02Z")
Or to put it another way… The world isnt willing to send mass amounts of people to die, and kill how many others to bail fucktard trump. > **Rant part 1 hidden** > > Ignorant United States and a bunch of racist, imperialist, child raping wankers out of the hole theyve dug for themselves ---
**Author:** ![bengangmo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@bengangmo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bengangmo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/335 "2026-09-26T04:59:54Z")
> **Continued rant hidden** > > Filling up my car with gas today cost 50% again over and above what it should, and all because of fucking racist, sexist, ignorant United States. > > If i had my way we’d label the US for what they currently are… > > A terrorist state and fuck every americsn up the arse with a cactus as thwy came in and we’d impose a stupid tax on tpurists that want to come here ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/336 "2026-09-26T09:07:55Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > Meanwhile a lot of Iran’s military capacity has been degraded, as has its internal repression apparatus. They’ve also helped build a coalition of arab nations, Israel and the west against them. Iran being willing and able to close both the straits of hormuz and bab al mandab anytime they want isn’t something the world will just sit by and allow to happen. 30% of fossil fuels pass through that. The world didn’t let Saddam Hussein conquer Kuwait and try to conquer Saudi Arabia in 1990 due to its impact on global energy supplies, and I don’t see the world letting Iran and its proxies control major trade routes forever. This seems like incredibly wishful thinking to me. Iran has now proven they are willing and able to take control of the Strait, and even the mighty US can’t stop them. This is something we handed over to them by starting this war. That’s a permanent threat to the world economy as long as Iran has a coastline along the Strait. And it almost certainly guarantees that they won’t be attacked again. Everyone will know that attacking Iran means the Strait will be closed. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/337 "2026-09-26T13:03:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This seems like incredibly wishful thinking to me. Iran has now proven they are willing and able to take control of the Strait, and even the mighty US can’t stop them. This is something we handed over to them by starting this war. That’s a permanent threat to the world economy as long as Iran has a coastline along the Strait. And it almost certainly guarantees that they won’t be attacked again. Everyone will know that attacking Iran means the Strait will be closed. Respectfully, 😉 … I’m inclined to agree with Wesley\_Clark’s eval. Iran has always had this ability/capacity. While the US gave Iran the excuse it was looking for, Iran’s position is not markedly improved with respect to long term hostage taking of the straight. The US pulling back will put pressure on Iran to return to the status quo due to international pressure to do so. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/338 "2026-09-26T13:12:58Z")
Iran didn’t know how the world would react. And they didn’t have an excuse that much of the world would empathize with. We gave them that. Now, Iran knows that the world will largely stand by if they close the Strait in response to aggression, and now much of the world emphasizes with Iran, even gives them additional respect, since they stood up to a belligerent and very unpopular US president (and have basically won). All because of US stupidity. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/339 "2026-09-26T13:14:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Iran didn’t know how the world would react. It’s reasonable to assume they gamed it out, too. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2026, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/340 "2026-09-26T13:15:50Z")
Yes, but I think if they knew it would have been this effective and successful, they would have tried it years ago. They only tried it this time because they were existentially threatened. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=18)