# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 19
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/361 "2026-09-27T12:47:06Z")
You keep saying this but can you elaborate? Who exactly is sympathetic towards Iran? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/362 "2026-09-27T13:01:38Z")
Some of it is anecdotal – stuff I see on reddit, social media, etc. But there is some international polling data, too: > **[Changing Views of Iran After the 2026 War – Arab Barometer](https://www.arabbarometer.org/2026/06/changing-views-of-iran-after-the-2026-war/)** [https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/polls-show-majority-of-europeans-oppose-us-israeli-strikes-on-iran/3853988](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/polls-show-majority-of-europeans-oppose-us-israeli-strikes-on-iran/3853988) And reporting on Arab populations’ increasing sympathy with Iran (in stark contrast to their leaders): [https://archive.ph/tbTzX](https://archive.ph/tbTzX) ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/363 "2026-09-27T13:14:11Z")
You can’t be serious. Mauritania is your canary in the coal mine? A casual read of the article admits it doesn’t even start with a baseline with which to compare the results. To say nothing of the other caveats it lists with regards to the survey results. The other article says nothing new about the frequent age-old dichotomy of views between Arab leadership and Arab populations. That’s to say nothing about the vibes from reddit and social media. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/364 "2026-09-27T13:16:41Z")
There is a baseline on views on Iran’s supreme leader: > However, a question on views of the foreign policies of Iran’s Supreme Leader shows a dramatic change in attitudes since two years prior. Today, 79 percent of Mauritanians rate the policies of Mojtaba Khamenei positively, compared with just 24 percent who said the same about the policies of Ali Khamenei in 2024—a jump of 55 points. Notably, Iran’s position on Gaza alone is unlikely to explain the scale of this shift: from the 2021-2022 survey to the 2024 survey, positive views of the Supreme Leader’s policies fell by 13 points, suggesting that Iran’s posture toward Gaza had not, by itself, produced a comparable improvement in public opinion in Mauritania. The most plausible explanation for the shift since 2024 is that the current war has generated substantial sympathy for Iran. It seems unlikely this result is unique to Mauritania, but I’m open to other data. This source only had recent data from Mauritania. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/365 "2026-09-27T13:47:48Z")
I do not disagree that the war on Iran is unpopular. Despite what you may think, we do not even disagree that it was a really bad idea from the start, or that predictably the Trump administration was going to fuck it all up. I think our disagreement lies in the fact that now that we are here, the extent to which Iran’s ability to project terror has been diminished, arguably its nuclear program has been set back, its senior military leadership significantly rattled, arguably its ability to project military power damaged… are, on balance, a net positive for the world. Which is not to say there are not also significant negatives, not the least of which is the taking of innocent lives of children and economic impact due to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, much much lower down the list of things to be concerned about are opinion polls, particularly those that appear to support the Ayatollah. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/366 "2026-09-27T14:04:45Z")
I think all the setbacks for Iran you listed are short term – but the benefits for Iran are for the medium and long term. Most importantly, their control over the Strait. That will probably more than pay for the damage we’ve done, with huge profits over time. I think they’ll be making money on every ship that passes through for many years. But the opinion polls are far from nothing – public opinion will eventually influence the actions of most governments. If these shifts last, then that will mean government policies will change over time. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/367 "2026-09-27T14:12:29Z")
Since 1979, Iran has been a problem to be managed. Not in the way that Trump has gone about managing it. More in the way that the Obama administration has managed it. But it will continue to be a problem to be managed, until such time as the hardline Islamic leadership is replaced by a more moderate, dare we hope more liberal democratic style leadership, that rejects support of terrorist activities. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/368 "2026-09-27T14:14:27Z")
I think it’s clear we made it harder and less likely that the regime will change. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/369 "2026-09-27T14:22:43Z")
Change comes from within. I think that the IRGC has become more brittle as a result. There have been reports of fractures between the hard-liners and more moderate members. The mounting economic pressures within Iran are not nothing. All we can do is wait and see what happens next. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/370 "2026-09-27T14:26:23Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > All we can do is wait and see what happens next. Well, we should stop the war, but yes, no one knows for sure what’s going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/371 "2026-09-27T14:32:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Well, we should stop the war Peace in our time. Hypothetical: If in 6-18 months time, the Iran regime falls apart due to another popular uprising (Insha’Allah!), will you credit that to the damage inflicted by this war, or would you say it happened despite the war? ---
**Author:** ![DPRK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/4491bb/32.png) [@DPRK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DPRK)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/372 "2026-09-27T14:37:09Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > I think that the IRGC has become more brittle as a result. There have been reports of fractures between the hard-liners and more moderate members. Yes, but the reports are that it is the hard-liners who have been strengthened and are calling the shots. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/373 "2026-09-27T14:43:32Z")
I couldn’t possibly answer. It would depend on the details. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/374 "2026-09-27T14:45:44Z")
People can have nuanced opinions. I think the Iranian government is horrible: repressive, authoritarian, murderer, misogynist, etc. But I’m sympathetic at the same time because they are being done wrong. My sympathy is mitigated by the fact that they have been bad actors in the region for decades. But the bombing of that school was so horrific that I can’t help but feel for the people. The fact remains, though, my views on the government have shifted from entirely negative to almost entirely negative, which is technically more sympathetic. I suspect a lot of people feel the same, and the people who haven’t been paying attention for the last few decades even more so. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/375 "2026-09-27T14:51:38Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > The fact remains, though, my views on the government have shifted from entirely negative to almost entirely negative, which is technically more sympathetic. I suspect a lot of people feel the same, and the people who haven’t been paying attention for the last few decades even more so. The (Iranian) government to which you feel slightly more sympathetic, killed 30,000-40,000 of it’s citizens participating in peaceful protest, in a matter of days. Help me understand the source of your sympathy. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/376 "2026-09-27T14:52:43Z")
The US has caused the deaths of a whole lot more people, even just in the last two years. I can’t help but feel at least a tiny bit of sympathy for someone being bullied by a larger bully, even if the victim is a bully themselves. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/377 "2026-09-27T14:53:41Z")
We’re not in Iran anymore, are we Toto? If yours is a general animus towards the US, then I get it. But I would like to avoid conflation for the purposes of clarity on the subject. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/378 "2026-09-27T14:56:10Z")
1. The bombing of the school, which is a horrific war crime. 2. This unmotivated, pointless war. This isn’t a fairy tale. You can’t just say “they’re bad people, we can do whatever we want to the giant.” They are bad people. We can and should work against them. But what the USA is doing is wrong, and the way we are going about it is wrong. None of that excuses the Iranian government for the wrongs THEY have done. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/379 "2026-09-27T14:59:21Z")
It’s sympathy for a victim of bullying by a bigger bully. I think that’s pretty much it. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2026, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/380 "2026-09-27T15:12:18Z")
So you don’t like to see a bully bullied by a bigger bully. Fair enough. I’m happy to drop this line of argument. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=18) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=20)