# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2026, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/121 "2026-05-10T23:27:36Z")
**Forecast Evaluation: Sunday, May 10th** > [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I’m not an petroleum market specialist, but I’d expect spot prices north of $110 on May 10th. I’m honestly puzzled by the market’s behavior. That prices could fluctuate by 5 or 10 dollars per day isn’t surprising, since traders have to speculate about unknowables. But the $90-100 range just seems low to me. Someone is missing the plot, could very well be me. Brent oil futures are now at $105 according to Bloomberg. the spot price is $101 according to Trading Economics: that may or may not be as of Friday. On April 22nd, about a week after my April 14th post, it crossed the $100 threshold and has fluctuated with a ceiling of $120 since then. So yes, the 90-100 range was low, but we’re still below $110 this weekend. So why aren’t prices higher? No clue. I still don’t get it. Is short run oil demand more elastic (price responsive) than I thought? Did I underestimate the effects of oil inventories? Is the actual supply shortfall a great deal smaller than reported? Anyway, I’m going to set another baseline: let’s say oil will be fluctuating in the $110-$130 range by June 7th (4 weeks) and that it will be above $110 on that day. If oil is below $110, I’ll have some explaining to do. I have explaining to do today. I can’t do it now, and if things are similar in 4 weeks I’m drawing a blank on how I will explain it then. If oil is _above_ $120 or $130 that won’t surprise me. No explanations necessary. ---
**Author:** ![CaveMike](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cavemike/32/16379_2.png) [@CaveMike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaveMike)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 1:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/122 "2026-05-11T01:07:42Z")
I agree, I expected higher prices. [This article](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Market-Runs-Down-Safety-Cushion-as-Supply-Shock-Worsens.html) might provide some answers and addresses a couple of your explanations: - Demand in Asia is down 30% compared to last year due to price. I would say that is pretty elastic. - Strategic supplies are still being drawn down worldwide. They also note that the final pre-war deliveries are arriving now. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/123 "2026-05-11T01:36:21Z")
Briefly speaking to the gas price sidetrack (hint hint) > **[Driving less, canceling vacations, and tightening budgets: All the ways...](https://fortune.com/2026/05/08/americans-gas-prices-driving-behavior-changes/)** > > At $4.54 a gallon, drivers are combining errands, skipping vacations, and switching to e-bikes—and a new poll shows most expect prices to keep growing. Basically, Americans at least with our car culture are dong what they can to reduce driving to offset costs. See also the reports on various Rideshare/food delivery options leaving in droves due to the increases in underlying costs. * * * Predictions about the Iran War as related to the above - it would be absolutely in Iran’s interest to draw out the ongoing lower-grade attacks, demands on shipping, et al. at a minimum through the USA midterms. If rising costs (to @CaveMike’s point that the final pre-war deliveries are done which may cause ANOTHER spike) contribute to a governmental changeover in the Legislature, then it’s likely that Trump’s actions will be curtailed (not eliminated, but curtailed). They likely won’t be able to get _good-faith_ negotiations worked out, but if the House has an infusion of spine, not funding Trump’s Pet Peeve is a real win for the Regime. Though of course, it’ll give Trump the perfect “out” - “I would have won the greatest peace ever but the Demon-rats held back our glorious military!” I’m not saying Iran is, or ever should _trust_ the USA regardless of the party in power, but they may be willing to give some concessions (that Trump will of course, try to ixnay) to Democrats, who can similarly try to reset some relations while throwing Trump under the bus for all the bad faith efforts. Do I think it would _work_? Probably not - as long as Trump controls the executive, lasting peace or honest negotiation is going to stall. At best it’s the weak trope of “the enemy of my enemy may be my ally of the moment” - And by the time Trump is out of office (🤞) they may well be in a position of sufficient power in the region that they have no need, and _no reason_ to compromise on their control because they suspect (correctly I believe) that Democrats have no willingness to continue to try to force a new peace when there are so many issues at home. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/124 "2026-05-11T01:40:57Z")
> [@ParallelLines](#): > > And by the time Trump is out of office (🤞) they may well be in a position of sufficient power in the region that they have no need, and _no reason_ to compromise on their control because they suspect (correctly I believe) that Democrats have no willingness to continue to try to force a new peace when there are so many issues at home. Also, even if the Democrats ever get back in power, the Iranians have the personal experience of a Republican just throwing out agreements made by a Democrat out of spite. Even with the Democrats no nation with sense is going to trust a deal to last more than 4-8 years before the next Republican destroys it. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/125 "2026-05-11T02:01:07Z")
@CaveMike: Thanks for the link. Prices up 90% and quantity down 30% implies an elasticity of 0.33. That’s for Asia, some countries which have instituted rationing. The high elasticity scenario implies 0.20, the medium .15, and the low .10. So Asia has been relatively price-responsive, as short term responses go, more so than the high elasticity scenario. The problem with that analysis is that the .33 figure includes inventory draw-downs which by their nature are temporary. So presumably elasticity is lower than that. > [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Even with the Democrats no nation with sense is going to trust a deal to last more than 4-8 years before the next Republican destroys it. Mostly agree. But remember that humans are short-sighted, so there’s still room for international agreements. Also, foreign powers can game things out. So I don’t think agreements are foreclosed. They are just a lot less ambitious. “Until the next election” would be a soft wall, not a hard one. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2026, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/126 "2026-05-11T15:40:40Z")
We will never be trusted again. ---
**Author:** ![Jihi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jihi/32/17768_2.png) [@Jihi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jihi)\ **Post date:** [May 13, 2026, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/127 "2026-05-13T23:43:29Z")
> [@DWMarch](#): > > So now it’s going to be “Epic Passage” (of wind?) and 60 days after it will be Epic Something Else and so on until Trumpy Wumpy gets what he wants. > [@Jihi](#): > > The fascists are making noises like they think they have found a legal loophole around the 60 day limit on military action without Congressional approval. Just declare the war is over, and then change the official name. Voila, new war! So now we have an update on “Operation: Let’s just change the name”. Apparently the new name is going to be “Sledgehammer”, or possibly something else. > **[Pentagon considering renaming Iran war ‘Sledgehammer’ if ceasefire collapses](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-considering-re-naming-iran-war-sledgehammer-ceasefire-collaps-rcna344630)** > > A White House official tells NBC News says any new military combat operations against Iran would be conducted under a new name and operation. I do find it interesting that the Pentagon seems to be contradicting the White House’s official line that “Epic Fury” has concluded. Not sure if that will actually amount to anything, of course. > The Trump administration declared an end to Operation Epic Fury after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire in early April to pursue diplomatic negotiations. At the time, the administration informed Congress that hostilities with Iran had terminated. But the Pentagon has continued to describe the conflict with Iran as Operation Epic Fury, including when providing public updates. One Pentagon official said that Epic Fury continues and that the ceasefire simply has paused major combat operations. > Any new military combat operations against Iran would be conducted under a new name and operation, a White House official familiar with the discussions said, and from the administration’s point of view this would effectively restart the clock with Congress. Operation Sledgehammer is not the only name under consideration, according to the U.S. officials. I guess we’ll be able to add “illegally waging war” to Trump’s list of clear and obvious crimes. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/128 "2026-05-24T00:15:55Z")
[The “Deal” is all but complete, according to the guy who started the war.](https://www.aol.com/articles/iran-us-signal-progress-talks-144038391.html) (The **bolding** is mine.) > [@](#): > > ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — President Donald Trump said Saturday that a deal with Iran on [the war](https://apnews.com/hub/iran), including opening the Strait of Hormuz, has been “largely negotiated” after calls with Israel and other allies in the region. > > “Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump said on social media, with no details. He said he had spoken with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, and separately with Israel. > > He described it as a “Memorandum of Understanding pertaining to PEACE" that still must be finalized by the United States, Iran and the other countries that participated in the calls. It capped a week in which the U.S. weighed a new round of [attacks on the Islamic Republic](https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-ceasefire-strikes-military-984b44a42e512a4cbf8fcc5cd0d82fbe) that would break a fragile ceasefire. > > **There was no mention of Iran’s nuclear program and highly enriched uranium, which Iran has sought to discuss later.** There was no immediate comment from Iran or Israel. Trump said speaking with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had pressed the U.S. to go to war, went “very well.” You’ll note that there was no mention of the very thing the guy who started the war said he started the war over. _Go ahead and hate your neighbor Go ahead and cheat a friend Do it in the name of heaven You can justify it in the end_ That song’s supposed to be a commentary, not a playbook. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/129 "2026-05-24T00:23:55Z")
Sounds like meaningless blather. Trump social media posts basically mean zilch as far as facts go. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/130 "2026-05-24T00:24:51Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Trump social media posts basically mean zilch as far as facts go. I think you may have three extra words there. _Trump means zilch as far as facts go._ ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/131 "2026-05-24T00:30:00Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > [The “Deal” is all but complete, according to the guy who started the war.](https://www.aol.com/articles/iran-us-signal-progress-talks-144038391.html) [“Not so fast,”](https://apnews.com/article/iran-united-states-war-ceasefire-negotiations-hormuz-1c283f26d037102cc5e6f798546d0e59) says Iran. > Iran state TV earlier quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei as describing the draft as a “framework agreement” and adding: “We want this to include the main issues required for ending the imposed war and other issues of essential importance to us. Then, over a reasonable time span, between 30 to 60 days, details are discussed and ultimately a final agreement is reached.” ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/132 "2026-05-24T00:41:16Z")
Iran knows Trump is desperate, the best the US can hope for is status quo ante bellum. Which would mean (from a US perspective) we spent a decade’s production of high end weapons and interceptors, KIA servicemembers, damaged the global economy, and entrenched an even more hardline regime in order to accomplish a short term degradation of Iranian missile stock. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/133 "2026-05-24T15:06:56Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > , the best the US can hope for is status quo ante bellum I would assume that’s not good enough for Iran, if they let the U.S. get out scot free from this adventure, what’s to stop Trump from trying again whenever he feels like it? I guess they could accept it if they think the oil price shock and the exhaustion of magazines, plus the favorability hit in the polls is enough to dissuade Trump from that … and they feel is the best they can get. I think they will at least try for statu quo ante + tolls on the Strait to help rebuild their economy. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 2, 2026, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/134 "2026-06-02T14:40:08Z")
It would be interesting if Iran waited until the mid-terms and then negotiated directly with the new Congress. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/135 "2026-06-03T00:55:06Z")
Interesting? This would be absolutely expected. Or more particularly the Iranian regime will look to close the deal at the most advantageous timing with whomever puts the best offer on the table. Their assessment is whether the most beneficial US negotiator will be the post mid-term Congress or the immediately prior to mid-terms White House trying to kill the issue as an electoral liability. Exhibit #1 the Iranian hostage situation 1979-81. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/136 "2026-06-03T02:25:55Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > Exhibit #1 the Iranian hostage situation 1979-81. Yes, that’s exactly what I was thinking of. The current administration is probably too fucking stupid to remember history though. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/137 "2026-06-03T23:15:13Z")
I did not see that coming. > **[US House passes war powers resolution to curb Trump’s authority in Iran](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/03/house-passes-war-power-resolution-trump-iran?CMP=share_btn_url)** > > Stunning rebuke to president as lawmakers vote 215-208 for measure forcing him to seek congressional approval ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2026, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/138 "2026-06-03T23:50:22Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I did not see that coming. Did someone in the House find their balls or did they just remember they actually have a role to play in running the country? ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2026, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/139 "2026-06-04T00:00:47Z")
Or maybe some of them could use their “opposition” in their re-elect strategy on the basis of “Look, we are trying to govern, you can’t blame me”, but isn’t it dollars to donuts that 45/47 will simply ignore the resolution for a GOP win-win? ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2026, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/140 "2026-06-04T00:06:53Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > isn’t it dollars to donuts that 45/47 will simply ignore the resolution for a GOP win-win? It still has to pass the Senate. If that happens, and if the article is correct, Trump could simply veto the bill. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103.md?page=8)