# Predictions and forecasts about the ongoing Iran War **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\ **Created:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 1
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2026, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103/1 "2026-04-07T20:58:07Z")
Predictions involve what will happen. Pros make forecasts, which are probabilistic. Scenario evaluation is also topical, as is the gaming out of events. Trump threatens to destroy the Iran civilization with a deadline of 8PM tonight, 7 April 2026. There’s a TACO solution. Bomb a number of bridges, bomb a number of power plants _with repairable damage_, declare the Iranian civilization destroyed, and get out. The idea is to end it with a bang. Better make the power plant pinpricks obvious to the Iranians, because they will retaliate. Hope they do so roughly proportionally. This is a reasonable hope, as they have done so in the past. Problem: this doesn’t solve the Straits of Hormuz problem. Glaring weakness. Which means that the Get Out part of the above won’t happen. There’s another TACO solution of course. Lie that the Iranians have offered concessions in talks. That’s Trump’s go-to. I put the odds of that at well over 1/6, probably above the odds of any other of a handful of scenarios. Trump is getting bored though, so there are limits to the kick-the-can option, which is why I’d place the odds of this under 2/3. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-and-forecasts-about-the-ongoing-iran-war/1029103)._