# Predictions for 2018 and 2020 election voter turnout

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 25, 2018, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512 "2018-10-25T19:10:36Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 6\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/1 "2018-10-25T19:10:36Z")

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Highest-ever record for voter turnout in a midterm election is 49% in 1966, if I recall right. Wouldn’t be surprised a bit if this year’s midterm shatters that record.

Anyone think the 2020 presidential election might see 70% turnout?

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**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\
**Post date:** [October 25, 2018, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/2 "2018-10-25T20:38:14Z")

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**Thing Fish** and I have a wager about whether Dems will get more than 47 million votes (or less than 46 million) in the House of Representatives.

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**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\
**Post date:** [October 26, 2018, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/3 "2018-10-26T00:29:03Z")

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I’ll take 45% if someone is starting a pool.

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**Author:** ![Projammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/projammer/32/559_2.png) [@Projammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Projammer)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/4 "2018-11-08T16:24:28Z")

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I thought I was being optimistic at 45% so I’m pleasantly surprised that it hit 47%.

[A Boatload Of Ballots: Midterm Voter Turnout Hit 50-Year High](https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665197690/a-boatload-of-ballots-midterm-voter-turnout-hit-50-year-high)

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/5 "2018-11-08T16:53:40Z")

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From that link, “more than 110 million Americans cast a ballot for their congressional representative in Tuesday’s midterm elections”, and we know that the margin overall is estimated to be D+7. Assume 1 to 2% 3rd party? So give the Ds 53% of that, and that’s 58M voting D **HurricaneDitka**. Looks like you lost your bet.

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**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\
**Post date:** [November 8, 2018, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-2018-and-2020-election-voter-turnout/823512/6 "2018-11-08T17:16:58Z")

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NYT has it as 51.6M voting D so far:

> **[U.S. House Election Results 2018 (Published 2018)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-elections.html)**
>
> See live U.S. House results and maps.

Note that this doesn’t include votes from uncontested races, so the real number is higher.