# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/321 "2020-11-01T15:10:54Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I suspect that a LOT more African Americans would vote Republican if the GOP would just stop pandering to racists. We know that it can happen. Obama was very popular, but he had a legit chance to lose on election night in 2012. It seems obvious he would be an 8-year president now, but on the night of the election, I think Romney had about 30% chance to win in some forecasts. Amazingly, Bush beat John Kerry as well, the only time in 30+ years the Republican party has won the popular vote. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/322 "2020-11-01T15:13:02Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > I don’t think there are many people who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 who are planning to now. Who has he won over in the past four years? Meanwhile, a lot of Dems sat at home last time either for the usual reasons or because they didn’t like Hillary, and they’re coming out this time. Through all the uncertainty of the polls this is what I hold on to. I just have a really hard time believing that more people will move to Trump than those moving away. He won three states by such a small margin that I think he will now lose. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/323 "2020-11-01T15:16:45Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > Through all the uncertainty of the polls this is what I hold on to. I just have a really hard time believing that more people will move to Trump than those moving away. He won three states by such a small margin that I think he will now lose. I thought this exact thought immediately after the election in November 2016. He had won so thin a margin in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania(and New Hampshire!). The odds of winning all of those again is super unlikely. I think Michigan and Wisconsin will go to Biden. Penn? I hope so. I really do. Please, Pennsylvania!!! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/324 "2020-11-01T15:18:26Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I suspect that a LOT more African Americans would vote Republican if the GOP would just stop pandering to racists. That’s harder to do in Southern states because race is still a thing down there, but if the party as a whole would have a more active outreach toward Black voters, Brown voters, and Asian voters, and just tone down the racist crap, they’d win a lot more elections. Which is doubly funny when you consider the RW trope that Blacks only vote D for the purpose of getting more welfare. If indeed social assistance payments were the Blacks’ single issue, then they would vote D. But it isn’t; far from it. By blindly assuming the wrong motivation onto the Black community, they enable the racist narrative that in turn ensures the Blacks do stay away. The RWs are doing it to themselves. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/325 "2020-11-01T15:21:55Z")
> [@Monocracy](#): > > Democrats now know the importance of the electoral college and which swing states they need to win. Last election, most people didn’t spot Trump’s rust belt strategy. This election, a lot of time and money is being spent here by both parties. This is what I’m thinking as well. Democrats are afraid of losing again so they’re doing everything that they can to preempt/prevent a repeat of 2016. Trump had an element of surprise then that he doesn’t now. People might have assumed that he was going to lose and stayed home when they should have voted for Hillary - and they’ve had 4 years to think about that decision. The flip side is that Trump’s campaign, regardless of spin, has known all along that they are very unlikely to win the popular vote and will have to find ways to squeak out votes for their side and whittle away at votes from the opposition using a variety of means, which is why I think you’ll see immediate challenges to the results and why it’s important for Biden not just to win, but to win big. Re Trump’s bungling of COVID, some of it has been baked into the cake for a while, but what does hurt Trump is his repeated failures on this issue. He could have gotten away with the initial bungling - polls seemed to indicate that he had. But the super spreader event was symbolic in that it truly underscored his ineptitude and lack of personal responsibility. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/326 "2020-11-01T15:37:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The flip side is that Trump’s campaign, regardless of spin, has known all along that they are very unlikely to win the popular vote and will have to find ways to squeak out votes for their side and whittle away at votes from the opposition using a variety of means, which is why I think you’ll see immediate challenges to the results and why it’s important for Biden not just to win, but to win big.- This X 1,000. Biden has the votes (just like Hillary did!). I’m having _deja vu_ all over again. The Pubs will STOP. AT. NOTHING. to win this election. > **[Texas Republicans Ask State's Supreme Court To Throw Out 100,000 Cast Ballots](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-republicans-ask-judge-to-throw-out-100000-cast-ballots_n_5f9db73dc5b658b27c3afc9a)** > > With days before the election, Texas Republicans hope to invalidate 100,000 votes cast in Harris County. > Texas [Republicans](https://www.huffpost.com/news/topic/republican-party) asked the state’s Supreme Court to throw out more than 100,000 ballots that have already been cast just days before the next U.S. [presidential election.](https://www.huffpost.com/elections) > > A [lawsuit filed earlier this week](https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20401146/sd-tex-20-cv-03709.pdf) by two GOP candidates and a Republican member of the Texas House asked the Texas Supreme Court to throw out drive-thru ballots, arguing such voting was illegal. The case is currently being handled by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas in Houston. > > The lawsuit could jeopardize the votes of more than 115,000 voters in Harris County, which includes Houston, [the Austin American-Statesman reported.](https://www.statesman.com/news/20201028/new-challenge-seeks-to-void-thousands-of-harris-county-drive-thru-votes) BTW the Texas Supreme Court is ALL white male Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/327 "2020-11-01T16:01:03Z")
It actually seems likely that the state Supreme Court will uphold the validity of the drive-through ballots – they already rejected a challenge to drive-through voting earlier this year. The concern is the federal lawsuit, which has been assigned to one of the most blatantly partisan federal judges in the country. One thing I have not seen addressed in any of the articles so far is whether these drive-through votes are currently being segregated from other votes cast during early voting. If not, and a court ends up ruling them invalid, what do you do? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/328 "2020-11-01T16:32:32Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > If not, and a court ends up ruling them invalid, what do you do? Give all the electoral votes in Texas to Trump, obviously. This will be the Supreme court decision. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/329 "2020-11-01T17:04:40Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > White evangelical Christianity, Black evangelical Christianity, and Latino/a/x Roman Catholicism are still very distinct creeds even if we magically erase any racial/racist overtones from all 3. > [@asahi](#): > > I suspect that a LOT more African Americans would vote Republican if the GOP would just stop pandering to racists. That’s harder to do in Southern states because race is still a thing down there, but if the party as a whole would have a more active outreach toward Black voters, Brown voters, and Asian voters, and just tone down the racist crap, they’d win a lot more elections. I agree with asahi. The white evangelicals, Black evangelicals, and Latino Catholics are actually very similar. The only reason they haven’t joined forces is because of racism on the part of white evangelicals. Way back in the day, for example, white Catholics were also there own separate group. When the white Protestants stopped discriminating against the white Catholics, it became obvious how little difference there actually was between the two. Functionally there is now no difference between them. The same thing will happen with Black evangelicals and Latino Catholics if the white Protestent + Catholics ever stop being racist. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/330 "2020-11-01T17:08:32Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Give all the electoral votes in Texas to Trump, obviously. This will be the Supreme court decision. Sadly, this is the likeliest outcome 😢. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/331 "2020-11-01T19:41:18Z")
Latest report from the FOX News webpage. Newt Gingrich is confident Trump will win. One reason is a lot of Democrats at Trump rallies. Another is that voters will rebel against the tyranny happening now that is so bad he never would have believed it would happen here. Examples are, of course, Big Tech preventing another Watergate, the Nevada governor discriminating against churches (he didn’t) and Governor Whitman’s husband _thinking_ COVID restrictions did not apply to him (they did). In another story the headline mentions a tightening race but gives no evidence of it. But it does have polls giving Biden significant leads on handling COVID (double what it was a month ago) and the Supreme Court, a 20 pt gain over Hillary on trustworthiness, 36% “approval” rating of the economy, 21% who say COVID is completely or somewhat under control. On whether the priority of the federal governent should be controlling COVID or restarting the economy, its 61-36 for the former. 47% believe Trump will be re-electetd, down 4 pts in a month. ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/332 "2020-11-01T20:00:29Z")
I am still very worried. All of the people predicting how election night will go are ignoring the fact that most states’ counts will not be in that day. Going by which states start counting early, the only thing that will reassure me is if Biden takes Florida decisively. Florida counts early and if he wins there, Trump has a much narrower path to victory. States like Pennsylvania and Virginia will not be completely counted for several days at least. Not only do they not start counting until election day, but higher turnout means it will take longer. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/333 "2020-11-01T20:27:53Z")
Fox appears to be studiously ignoring the Texas drive - thru case. Why? ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/334 "2020-11-01T21:18:03Z")
Just saw a story that the DEA had seized a second Hunter Biden laptop back in February while raiding the office of Keith Ablow, a psychiatrist who works in Massachusetts, which is only a couple miles from where Hunter Biden lives in California. I predict that we will find out by early December that Hunter Biden owned 237 laptops and a Blackberry. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/335 "2020-11-01T21:51:24Z")
> [@psychobunny](#): > > Florida counts early and if he wins there, Trump has a much narrower path to victory If Biden wins Florida, I think it is almost certainly over for Trump. I’d put Florida at 50-50 and I am praying God moves enough hearts to flip it for Joe Biden. > [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Fox appears to be studiously ignoring the Texas drive - thru case. Why? Huh. I believe they are going to count them now. Is that why? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/336 "2020-11-01T21:53:49Z")
If Biden wins Florida, it’s game over. Florida is a mere want state for Biden but a need state for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/337 "2020-11-01T22:06:38Z")
It may seem dramatic, but much of the nation will rejoice if Florida is called for Biden. It won’t be over until the rest of the country plays out, but the fireworks may start going off just because of that one win. I’m truly hoping beyond all hope it happens. ---
**Author:** ![robby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robby/32/11048_2.png) [@robby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/robby)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/338 "2020-11-01T22:13:12Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Huh. I believe they are going to count them now. Is that why? It’s not over. There’s a parallel case heading to federal district court tomorrow. > **[Texas Supreme Court rejects Republican-led effort to throw out nearly 127,000...](https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/01/texas-drive-thru-votes-harris-county/)** > > A handful of GOP activists and candidates had asked the state's highest civil court to rule Harris County's drive-thru voting locations illegal and invalidate votes that have already been cast. The challenge has also been filed in federal court. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/339 "2020-11-01T22:33:52Z")
> [@robby](#): > > It’s not over. There’s a parallel case heading to federal district court tomorrow. “If they count all the ballots, no Republican will ever win office again!” A Trump paraphrase. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/340 "2020-11-01T22:36:23Z")
Of course, Florida may end up being the last state decided. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=18)