# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 18
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/341 "2020-11-01T22:45:50Z")
FWIW Mike Murphy of Republican Voters Against Trump said yesterday he thought Biden would win big and Florida called pretty early. He might be biased and he is working there to make it happen but another good sign ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/342 "2020-11-01T22:57:29Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > That’s what I potentially see now. But who knows… lol That’s the most detailed non-prediction I’ve ever seen. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but I’ll be hiding under the covers so I probably won’t see it happening live. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/343 "2020-11-01T23:12:43Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > FWIW Mike Murphy of Republican Voters Against Trump said yesterday he thought Biden would win big and Florida called pretty early. He might be biased and he is working there to make it happen but another good sign I hope so. I mean, if Florida has dumped Trump, it is clear the entire nation has dumped Trump, which I’m very much hoping they have. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/344 "2020-11-01T23:13:23Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > but I’ll be hiding under the covers Move over, man, give me a little room here. Though, I suspect “how it plays out” will take much longer than an evening. By the time it is done, we will all be played out. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/345 "2020-11-01T23:31:10Z")
Covers? Hell I’m scouting out caves (must have wi-fi, of course). ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2020, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/346 "2020-11-01T23:56:16Z")
Actually, it seems pretty likely Florida will be called on the night, unless it’s _really_ close. Florida’s one state that processes and counts absentee ballots before election day - starting in mid-October if I recall correctly. They should have the larger portion of the votes counted shortly after polls close. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/347 "2020-11-02T00:06:54Z")
FL, GA, NC, and AZ are going to be close. I know this isn’t a news flash, but I think the degree to which Biden performs in battleground states will determine the degree of misbehavior after election night. If Biden sweeps nearly all the competitive states, “rigged” is a hard sell even for the most devout kool aid drinkers. But if Trump can take half, it’s going to be a mess even if he’s not the projected winner. That’s what is really at stake here. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/348 "2020-11-02T02:52:40Z")
Here’s my final prediction. Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona will go blue. Iowa, Pennsylvania and Florida will go red. Texas will go blue if the Harris county votes are not thrown out, otherwise we will go red. Despite this seemingly optimistic prediction I am still very nervous about the results. I’ll be back when the first polls close. I’ll be reducing my stress by not following the election until then. Good luck to the Democrats and good luck to the USA. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 8:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/349 "2020-11-02T08:19:03Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I’ll be back when the first polls close. I’ll be reducing my stress by not following the election until then. I’m in WI. I just got my poll worker assignment: processing mail-on ballots on Tuesday, from 7 AM (the earliest moment we’re allowed to start) onward. We hope to be done by 9 PM, but it might take longer — hopefully not much longer than 10 PM. So, I won’t have the opportunity to follow closely the incoming results across the nation. Probably just as well — my fingernails are already bitten to the quick. ---
**Author:** ![Superdude](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/superdude/32/13450_2.png) [@Superdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Superdude)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 10:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/350 "2020-11-02T10:07:37Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > I don’t understand how someone can spend four years making life miserable for blacks and Hispanics and yet still maintain a similar level of support from them. I live in the Louisville, KY area. There’s actually a front-page story in the local newspaper about the support that Trump gets locally from the Cuban population. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/351 "2020-11-02T13:43:24Z")
Thank you for your service! ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/352 "2020-11-02T14:31:02Z")
De nada! It will be a memorable moment. The core team is a competent, terrific bunch of dedicated folks, and patient with us newbies. We don’t do chads. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/353 "2020-11-02T14:34:43Z")
> [@Malden\_Capell](#): > > I don’t understand how someone can spend four years making life miserable for blacks and Hispanics and yet still maintain a similar level of support from them. > [@Superdude](#): > > I live in the Louisville, KY area. There’s actually a front-page story in the local newspaper about the support that Trump gets locally from the Cuban population. This from Texas: > **[Texas backers see president as ‘Superman’ - San Antonio Express, 11/2/2020](http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ODN/SanAntonioExpressNews/shared/ShowArticle.aspx?doc=SAEN%2F2020%2F11%2F02&entity=Ar00102&sk=171D6EED&mode=text)** > > San Antonio Express - 11/2/2020 > Richard Diaz, the only Republican elected official in Crystal City, voted for Donald Trump in 2016, when Diaz was still a Democrat. > > Diaz, who serves on the City Council, intends to vote for Trump again Tuesday. > > “The longer this person is in office, the longer I am satisfied with the work he is doing. I’ve seen a lot of presidents, and none but John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were very effective,” the 80-year-old Diaz said. > > “Our country is going down. Our constitutional system is going down. People do not respect our country like they did before. Patriotism is not there with the younger generation. And I blame all of this on the Democrats,” he said. > > Diaz is among a group of Hispanics in Texas who are unwavering in their support of the president, despite his rhetoric and policies on immigration and his vitriolic attacks against some in the Latino community. > > They agree with him on his immigration positions, saying they feel empowered by someone they see as a “Superman,” someone who is strong, successful and exudes a “macho” confidence. > > Although Trump trailed far behind Hillary Clinton among Latino voters in Texas in 2016, his supporters predict he will again win the state and do well with Latinos. Surveys show a majority of Latinos nationwide back Democratic nominee Joe Biden, though not as strongly as they did Clinton. The difference could prove significant, especially in battleground states such as Texas. > > “I have not seen any disillusionment with Trump. He is strong in the Hispanic communities,” said Roy Barrera Jr., a former Bexar County Republican party chairman. > > “Hispanics are very pro-law enforcement, so is he. They are devout Catholics and pro-life, and they appreciate the president’s position on that. And they are for free enterprise,” he said. > > And while Trump’s frequent provocative remarks may have disappointed some of his Hispanic supporters, they will still back him, Barrera said. > > “They make the distinction between what he has said and what he has done. And they feel he is working for them,” he added. > … 🤦🏽‍♀️ ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/354 "2020-11-02T15:05:25Z")
Junior is _so_ gonna be the Republican nominee in '24. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/355 "2020-11-02T15:06:44Z")
Let’s wait until at least Wednesday before we start the “Predictions for the 2024 US Presidential Election” thread. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/356 "2020-11-02T15:18:26Z")
This is the most crazy and fluid election in some years, in part because of massive GOP cheatery; the range of possible outcomes in enormous. But what the hell. Here’s my guess. > **[270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](https://www.270towin.com/maps/l021g)** > > Create your own forecast for the 2024 presidential election ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/357 "2020-11-02T18:18:30Z")
Was going to post that very same map, in any case I can expect vote suppression to maybe let Trump eke a victory, but I think that a lot of people do also want to see Trump being checked by a more democratic congress. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/358 "2020-11-02T18:54:27Z")
Is Junior going to promise a crack pipe in every house? ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/359 "2020-11-02T18:55:58Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > But what the hell. Here’s my guess. I agree with that map, give or take PA and AZ and with the possible addition of FLA. What is a mild comfort to me is that Biden could lose all of those and still get a narrow win. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2020, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/360 "2020-11-02T20:00:39Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Texas will go blue if the Harris county votes are not thrown out It’s looking that way: > **[U.S. judge voices doubt about Texas Republican bid to throw out 127,000 votes](https://wtvbam.com/2020/11/02/u-s-judge-voices-doubt-about-texas-republican-bid-to-throw-out-127000-votes/)** > > By Jennifer Hiller and Jan Wolfe HOUSTON (Reuters) - A federal judge in Texas on Monday appeared skeptical of an attempt by Republicans to throw out a... [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=17) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=19)