# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 22
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/421 "2020-11-03T07:39:00Z")
Oh, interesting - thanks! Ignorance fought. The spoils of 2010-era gerrymandering. ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 8:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/422 "2020-11-03T08:59:45Z")
Has nothing to do with gerrymandering. Has everything to do with the Founding Fathers considering all states equal regardless of population. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/423 "2020-11-03T10:16:05Z")
I apparently misunderstood. Doesn’t each state count as one vote, with that vote going to whichever party has more members in the US House of Representatives for that state? If so, gerrymandering is certainly a factor. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/424 "2020-11-03T10:24:44Z")
Gerrymandering is the deliberate contorted redrawing of electoral districts to ensure a minority of voters gets a majority of seats. Seeing as the States have been set in stone since the 1950s, unless you’re arguing that people long since dead deliberately drew State boundaries to rig a House college vote in 2020, it’s not gerrymandering. It’s just the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/425 "2020-11-03T10:33:44Z")
I have confirmed that, indeed, the majority of a state’s congressional delegate determines that state’s one vote in this scenario. Gerrymandering is exactly about giving one party a larger number of congressional representatives within a state than they deserve. Following the 2010 census, for example, North Carolina’s Republican-majority state legislature gerrymandered such that, in a subsequent election (I think it might have been the 2014 midterms), 50% of the popular votes went to each party, but Republicans won 75% of the congressional seats. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 10:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/426 "2020-11-03T10:36:33Z")
But with the States it’s not gerrymandering - most of the States were drawn long before modern party battle lines were even conceived of. It’s just misfortune. ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/427 "2020-11-03T11:17:06Z")
Actually, I see what you are saying. Because it is not the actual vote in the state that counts but rather the number of legislators, gerrymandering will affect the total.You could have a state where 60 % of the population votes democratic but 60 % of their representatives are Republican because of gerrymandering. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 11:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/428 "2020-11-03T11:23:48Z")
Oh wait, I understand what you’re referring to now. Yes, you’re right. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/429 "2020-11-03T11:45:44Z")
Whew! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/430 "2020-11-03T13:17:33Z")
An important point is that it will be the new Congress that would vote on the President — so there is the possibility that Democrats could flip enough seats in the right states to take a majority in half or more of state delegations. ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/431 "2020-11-03T14:46:59Z")
Oh I did not know that - I thought it was the existing one! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/432 "2020-11-03T14:47:25Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > An important point is that it will be the new Congress that would vote on the President — so there is the possibility that Democrats could flip enough seats in the right states to take a majority in half or more of state delegations. That would be miraculous and amazing. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/433 "2020-11-03T15:18:26Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > That would be miraculous and amazing. Currently, Republicans control 26 states, Democrats 23. PA is a tie. It wouldn’t take that much to flip two states I guess. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/434 "2020-11-03T15:21:07Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > Trump could win, but I am done checking the polls day after day and coming up with reasons why they may be wrong. I have been checking, but not for any particular reason. They clearly show a pretty easy Biden victory. I thought I had posted in this thread, but I suppose not. Another prediction: I note from 538 that Pennsylvania probably won’t be called tonight. I didn’t know this was likely, but would now add specifically that if it can’t be called, Trump will most definitely be out on the hustings talking bullshit, but his team of lawyers won’t take any real action until all the votes are counted. As I’ve said, I think Biden will win by a wide enough margins (including Pennsylvania) that the election will essentially be uncontestable, and Trump will slink off, blustering and bloviating all the way about how he “wuz robbed!”, but that’s all. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/435 "2020-11-03T15:25:09Z")
Ah, perfect, someone else who has done most of my work for me! Move Florida to Biden’s column, and there you have it, 334-204. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/436 "2020-11-03T15:26:53Z")
If Florida is called for Biden tonight, there will be fireworks around the nation! ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/437 "2020-11-03T15:46:41Z")
It’s curious to me that there is such preparation for the expectation that we won’t have a result today. I don’t remember that in previous elections, and it’s generally been the norm that we do have a call on election day, with 2000 being a notable exception to that rule. Maybe not an official call, but everyone agrees who won. Is it the mail-in voting that makes it different this time? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/438 "2020-11-03T15:49:38Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Maybe not an official call, but everyone agrees who won. > > Is it the mail-in voting that makes it different this time? The most important “everyone” is the loser. This time, that person is likely, but not certain, to not concede and indeed interfere with the “official” call which would be more of a formality at other times. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/439 "2020-11-03T15:55:09Z")
I have a couple small fireworks in the waiting. If Florida goes blue, it’s all over. Could be an early night. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2020, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/440 "2020-11-03T15:58:37Z")
OK, let me rephrase. Why is it so unlikely that all normal human beings who understand math won’t get a call today one way or the other? Trump conceding notwithstanding. That has generally been the expectation in the past. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=21) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=23)