# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2020, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/41 "2020-10-13T14:47:50Z")
It’s my best-case scenario! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/42 "2020-10-14T03:04:33Z")
> [@Polerius](#): > > This thread should get the Guinness World Record for the most off-topic set of responses to an OP in the SDMB’s history > [@QuickSilver](#): > > I don’t think anybody wants to go on record with a prediction. We’ve been hurt before. Ok, I’ll go on record with some predictions now that we’re exactly 3 days out from Election Day. In several posts over the last 2-3 years I have said in multiple post DJT would be reelected. I’ve been one of several liberal/progressive posters who repeatedly pointed out how taking back WI-MI-PA would be far more crucial to a D win and than focusing on FL to the exclusion of those states. While it appears the Rust Belt is coming home for Biden, I still have trouble buying polls of FL being accurate given how unreliable that state has been for D’s. [This is my comfortable EC map.](https://www.270towin.com/maps/3W81Y). By comfortable I mean that I see there being at least a 50% chance this will be the result. [This is my “If The Polls Are Close To Being Accurate” Map.](https://www.270towin.com/maps/rG9mo) If FL and NC go for Biden, this will be the point where they do. About a 5% chance this happens. [And here is the Fantasy Map.](https://www.270towin.com/maps/XNwK8) But it isn’t a crazy map, given Trump seems to be doing everything he can to move the electorate to reject him and the GOP on this scale. I put this map at 1 in 1000. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/43 "2020-10-14T12:58:18Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > [And here is the Fantasy Map.](https://www.270towin.com/maps/XNwK8) But it isn’t a crazy map, given Trump seems to be doing everything he can to move the electorate to reject him and the GOP on this scale. I put this map at 1 in 1000. No blue Texas on the fantasy map? 😛 ETA. Biden’s chances of winning Texas are over double Trump’s chances of overall victory, assuming Nate Silver’s numbers are correct. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/44 "2020-10-14T16:08:23Z")
No. Having it as a tossup is pretty much a fantasy this time out. Gov. Abbott and his scumbag Lt. Gov. and AG will do anything they have to in order to keep it red. Iowa and Georgia would have to go blue before Texas. If both of them do go blue then I think OH would have to follow before Texas can be considered possible. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/45 "2020-10-14T16:10:22Z")
And can probably manage to do so successfully. Until about 2028. The demographic changes in Texas must be scaring the shit out of the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![Hermitian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hermitian/32/470_2.png) [@Hermitian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hermitian)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/46 "2020-10-14T18:21:33Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Ok, I’ll go on record with some predictions now that we’re exactly 3 days out from Election Day. Did I miss something? 🤨 ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/47 "2020-10-14T18:24:10Z")
Nope, I meant weeks not days. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/48 "2020-10-14T19:47:29Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > No. Having it as a tossup is pretty much a fantasy this time out. Gov. Abbott and his scumbag Lt. Gov. and AG will do anything they have to in order to keep it red. Like putting rules in place to limit ballot drop boxes to one per county. Because of unspecified, made up, total fictional, imaginary “fraud”. I really, really hope this backfires on them, and rural counties who tend to vote Republican end up having so much difficulty voting (driving for an hour to the one single drop box) that Texas ends up turning blue. I would laugh and laugh. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/49 "2020-10-14T20:13:33Z")
Dude, it’s supposed to be your FANTASY! I’m pretty certain Dems having a better chance of taking Texas than I have of eloping with Lawrence O’Donnell, but that’s not stopping me from dreaming. My other **FANTASY** is that Trump doesn’t even break into triple digits electoral vote wise. I know its impossible, but that’s why it’s a fantasy and I still have fun making the maps. ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/50 "2020-10-14T20:22:17Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Ok, I’ll go on record with some predictions now that we’re exactly 3 days out from Election Day. > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Nope, I meant weeks not days. I was simultaneously panicked and relieved there for a second. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/51 "2020-10-14T20:28:59Z")
I assumed in her/his state, that’s when early in-person voting will start. For us (Wisconsin), it starts in six days. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/52 "2020-10-14T20:34:26Z")
Given the high turnout for early voting, I predict that Biden will get more votes in Texas this year than Trump got in 2016. I don’t know if that will be enough, but I think Biden will beat that number, which was 4,685,047. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/53 "2020-10-14T23:06:47Z")
I can imagine the Rs complaining about early voting: “here, we came up with the most stupendous (nothingburger) October Surprise that should have spun the election around, but all these ‘early voters’ missed out on it – they were voting with incomplete information, do-over, do-over!” ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/54 "2020-10-14T23:08:56Z")
They also claim to have Hunter Bidens emails- he will drop out also. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/55 "2020-10-14T23:10:51Z")
Fox News is EXPLODING WITH INDIGNATION that the lies that they are supporting are not being spread willingly by facebook and twitter. HOW DARE THEY stop our lies? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/56 "2020-10-14T23:29:44Z")
> [@romansperson](#): > > predict that even if Agent Orange loses, he’s going to want to continue his rallies. He might even try to attempt a ‘comeback’ for 2024. I really hope I am wrong. Can one do that from prison? ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/57 "2020-10-14T23:35:47Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Can one do that from prison ? Eugene Debs did Even prison couldn’t quiet Debs. In fact, by 1920, he was again nominated to be the Socialist Party’s candidate for president, his fifth run overall. While he was accustomed to campaigning by train and speaking in front of thousands, in Atlanta Federal Penitentiary, Debs was allowed [[PDF](https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1991/08/art4full.pdf)] to give one political statement every week, which was then handed over to news wires ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2020, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/58 "2020-10-14T23:46:06Z")
[Here’s my current guess:](https://www.270towin.com/maps/6zPz2) If a toss-up was 3% or higher for Biden, then I gave it to Biden; if less, I gave it to Trump. For those who don’t care to click through, that gives FL and NC to Biden, and GA, OH, IA, and ME-2 to Trump. 334 Biden, 204 Trump. And if you haven’t voted, and are eligible to do so, please do so! ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/59 "2020-10-15T00:04:33Z")
> Can one do that from prison? I guess I should add a further prediction: I really doubt he’s going to go to prison. Again, I hope I am wrong. But frankly, I’m not seeing it. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/60 "2020-10-15T01:39:52Z")
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