# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/61 "2020-10-15T03:01:00Z")
Maybe not, but his legal team will have their hands full. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/62 "2020-10-15T04:17:06Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > Can one do that from prison? Trump will never see a day in court, let alone prison. There are enough Trumpettes in the right places to spirit him out of the country when/if the time comes. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/63 "2020-10-15T04:19:11Z")
I hear they are setting up a nice little dacha for him in Тунгуске. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/64 "2020-10-15T13:06:09Z")
I agree Trump does not serve time except maybe a short stay in a club Fed place in Florida. It would be great to see him sweeping streets,wash cop cars, etc for community service, I would prefer that to a short prison stay. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/65 "2020-10-15T15:16:39Z")
The amount of early voting going on his a very hopeful sign. Here in Texas, we’re shattering early voting records. Also, the more votes Biden can bank before election day the harder it gets for Republicans to cheat their way to victory. Legal challenges to a few thousand votes in one or two swing states are one thing – trying to invalidate tens or hundreds of thousands of votes across multiple states (and to challenge them in a way that actually helps – Republicans vote absentee too) would be hard for even the GOP to pull off. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/66 "2020-10-15T15:41:43Z")
The abundance of early voting is almost certainly playing havoc with Trump’s voter intimidation plans for November 3. What if his supporters are the only ones at the polls that day? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/67 "2020-10-15T16:02:50Z")
My prediction at this point, 19 days out is: EC: Biden 320 Trump 218 Vote: Biden 51.9 Trump 42.7 Other 5.4 ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/68 "2020-10-15T16:05:28Z")
That seems high for “other.” Who do you have in mind? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/69 "2020-10-15T16:15:05Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > That seems high for “other.” Who do you have in mind?. Nobody in particular. 2016 total was 5.7% “other” and I figure that there are going to be a few Republican voters this time who want to vote, but will not vote for Trump or Biden. 2012 election the “other” vote was much less, but then people in that election were voting FOR their candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/70 "2020-10-15T16:18:32Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Nobody in particular. 2016 total was 5.7% “other” and I figure that there are going to be a few Republican voters this time who want to vote, but will not vote for Trump or Biden. 2012 election the “other” vote was much less, but then people in that election were voting FOR their candidate. Is “other” tracking so high this election? I have no idea. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/71 "2020-10-15T16:19:39Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Nobody in particular. 2016 total was 5.7% “other” and I figure that there are going to be a few Republican voters this time who want to vote Could be. Personally, I think people in 2016 thought they could vote “other” without consequence. Many of us thought Clinton was a lock, and it was a good time to express a preference for a third party. No one is complacent this time around. (I hope) Since this is a prediction threat, I’ll say the popular vote will be Biden 52.2% Trump 47.1% Other 0.7% ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2020, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/72 "2020-10-15T16:28:36Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Biden 52.2% > Trump 47.1% > Other 0.7% This is closer to my expectation. Is that enough to win for Biden, though? ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/73 "2020-10-17T01:28:48Z")
My qualified prediction. On this day, my birthday, in 2016 Hillary had a 7.5% lead in Pennsylvania. By election day it was down to 3.7%. Today Biden is at at 6.8%. If he stays above 5%, he wins Looking closely at 2016, Hillary only went down 1.3 points in the last 2 weeks. But Trump gained 2.3, because Gary Johnson lost .9 points. > **[Pennsylvania | 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)** > > Pennsylvania predictions and polling data for the 2016 presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/74 "2020-10-17T05:35:46Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > Since this is a prediction threat, I’ll say the popular vote will be > Biden 52.2% > Trump 47.1% > Other 0.7% Seriously? You think Individual-ONE is going to gain a full percentage point over 2016? Against a candidate for whom it is far more difficult to drum up animosity? ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/75 "2020-10-17T10:13:29Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Seriously? You think Individual-ONE is going to gain a full percentage point over 2016? Against a candidate for whom it is far more difficult to drum up animosity? Trump’s gain wont be due to animosity against Biden. (He’s too wishy-washy to generate animosity.) But mention BLM…and you see animosity. Mention the Portland riots, the no-go zones for police…watch the animosity against “liburals” rise. Gun sales have skyrocketed this year —so much that the manufacturers can’t produce enough bullets to meet demand at shooting ranges. I predict a win for Trump. Polls show Biden with barely a 5% lead in the few states which matter. The polls have a margin of error of 3%–so that’s barely a 2% lead for Biden. And 2% of absentee ballots are routinely thrown out as invalid due to clerical errors. Result: an even tie. But there’s more:the 2% statistic is from 8 years ago, when there was zero controversy about mail in ballots. This year, it will be far more than 2%, due to obstacles, shenanigans and outright criminal activity by the Republicans. The day after election day, I expect to read that psychology therapists in NY and California are being overwhelmed with new patients . Rachel Maddow’s meltdown on live TV may become an epic moment in television history. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 1:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/76 "2020-10-17T13:40:06Z")
There’s that amazing confidence again. That everything will break Trump’s way. I’m certainly worried about that possibility but I’m pretty sure that it would be an unlikely event. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/77 "2020-10-17T14:57:18Z")
I have a hard time believing Trump will get a higher percentage of voters than in 2016. I think the number of regretters will outnumber the clinton voters who flip to Trump because of BLM. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/78 "2020-10-17T16:53:58Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > Polls show Biden with barely a 5% lead in the few states which matter. Per 538 as of today - 7.8% in Michigan, 6.8% in Pennsylvania, 7.7% in Wisconsin. That’s 46 electoral votes and would have been enough to swing the 2016 election. I don’t think anything is a foregone conclusion, but your numbers are a little low. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/79 "2020-10-17T16:56:29Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > There’s that amazing confidence again. That everything will break Trump’s way. Actually, I think the amazing confidence is coming this year not from the Republcans, but from the Dems, because the numbers look good, again… As if they can’t remember that the numbers also looked good the last time. > [@Deeg](#): > > I think the number of regretters will outnumber the clinton voters who flip to Trump because of BLM. I hope you’re right. But I think it’s going to be a much closer election than the current numbers show. I’m hearing nothing but complacency from Biden supporters.After all, they say, Nate at 538 has done the number-crunching on massive computers.What could go wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2020, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/80 "2020-10-17T17:43:10Z")
You appear to be mistaking hope for confidence. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=5)