# Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 8, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525 "2020-10-08T22:06:35Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/161 "2020-10-26T21:03:27Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > My prediction on this election is that Biden wins easily, we’ll know the winner on Election Night, and he’ll get over 300 EV. I also predict a tidal wave in the House and Senate. I had been holding off on feeling this confident, but polls that came out today have me confident (absent skullduggery), this won’t even be close. What polls? ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/162 "2020-10-26T21:24:29Z")
[These polls.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) Overall, MI, WI and the national polling, combined with Nate Silver’s [choose-your-own adventure forecast map](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#WA:0,OR:0,CA:0,NV:0,MN:0,WI:0,MI:0,NY:0,VT:0,MA:0,CT:0,NJ:0,MD:0,VA:0,IL:0,CO:0,NM:0,MT:1,ID:1,WY:1,ND:1,SD:1,NE:1,UT:1,KS:1,OK:1,AR:1,LA:1,MS:1,AL:1,SC:1,IN:1,WV:1,KY:1,TN:1,MO:1,AK:1,HI:0,N3:1,N1:1,M1:0,ME:0,NH:0,DC:0,DE:0,RI:0,N2:0) make me think there’s no chance (absent skullduggery) for a Trump victory, or even a close finish. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/163 "2020-10-26T22:00:43Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > (absent skullduggery) Skulduggery is already present. There will be more on election day. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/164 "2020-10-26T22:02:32Z")
Doesn’t mean it will necessarily be effective enough to stop the tidal wave at this point. Might it happen? Sure. Up until today, I wasn’t convinced Biden’s lead was big enough to withstand Trump’s and his followers’ skullduggery. Now I’m not convinced their skullduggery will be enough to stop the wave. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/165 "2020-10-26T22:06:10Z")
It is, if the intent is to throw the whole result into question. They’ve been doing their darnedest to gin up the narrative that the election result will be rife with fraud and malfeasance. Naturally, all the results will be challenged and go to the courts they have been packing for the past four years, right up to the top one. _That’s_ the skulduggery to worry about. It’s not who votes that counts, it’s who counts the votes. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2020, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/166 "2020-10-26T22:26:10Z")
I understand that. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/167 "2020-10-27T01:25:18Z")
If the margin of the popular vote is bigger than 2016 (e.g. five million votes) and Trump & his flying monkeys pull some shenanigans to overturn the result, be prepared for a bloodbath that is going to make the BLM and Antifa protests look like a food fight at a church picnic. I’m talking Civil War 2.0. And it will get ugly. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/168 "2020-10-27T02:00:22Z")
I was thinking of generating a poll for this question, but decided that a separate thread wasn’t warranted. A lot of the discussion so far revolves around fears of future events. I understand this, but it makes it hard for me to tell what people are _actually predicting_. It’s like, “oh, Biden _should_ win, but just wait until Trump gets his lawsuits in front of Republican appointed judges.” Great, so what exactly does that mean for, you know, your actual prediction? So I’d like to ask this of the folks here: if you were required to bet your life savings, your immortal soul and those of everyone you care about, etc etc, on the simple question of who will be sworn in as President of the United States in January, what would you say? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/169 "2020-10-27T02:21:21Z")
> [@CaptMurdock](#): > > If the margin of the popular vote is bigger than 2016 (e.g. five million votes) and Trump & his flying monkeys pull some shenanigans to overturn the result, be prepared for a bloodbath that is going to make the BLM and Antifa protests look like a food fight at a church picnic. I’m talking Civil War 2.0. And it will get ugly. Carl Bernstein reportedly told a reporter from the Daily News that [a group of GOP Senators are making plans for how to oppose DJT if he loses and won’t step down.](https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-carl-bernstein-says-gop-senators-worried-trump-fight-vote-20201026-glq6grr7wzg6xnftvbmvk2dm5e-story.html) Who knows if this has legs but still an interesting tidbit. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/170 "2020-10-27T02:32:33Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Who knows if this has legs but still an interesting tidbit. It is within the realm of possibility that the Republicans in the Senate might do something to rein Trump in… but only if they see that doing so is for their personal benefit. This is their only calculus, their only reason for action… “How will this benefit me personally?” will be the guide to their actions. This line in the article gave me some small hope: > “There is real concern because the Republican party can be held responsible for (Trump’s) actions if they don’t do something about his provocative acts to undermine the Constitution if he goes as far in his scorched-earth campaign as they fear he will.” That’s their only worry. Will this harm them personally if Trump goes off the rails? Is there a possibility that they will be personally swinging from lamp poles after the dust settles? If so, then they might just attempt do something to control Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/171 "2020-10-27T02:48:34Z")
Wait, they just rushed through a SC justice for the very purpose of pulling out a close election with legal ratfuckery. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/172 "2020-10-27T03:22:34Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > So I’d like to ask this of the folks here: if you were required to bet your life savings, your immortal soul and those of everyone you care about, etc etc, on the simple question of who will be sworn in as President of the United States in January, what would you say? I’d have to abstain. I truly do not feel confident about making a prediction. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/173 "2020-10-27T03:49:43Z")
Biden’s numbers still look very stable compared to previous elections (see blue curve vs other curves below). We have now passed the point where Hillary’s chances took a dive. If there is no systematic bias in the state polls (which I get from [electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com)) and if the shenanigans aren’t too extreme, I predict Biden has this in the bag. [![](https://i.ibb.co/cXB6zzw/plot-2020-Latest-Prob-compare.png) ](https://i.ibb.co/cXB6zzw/plot-2020-Latest-Prob-compare.png) ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/174 "2020-10-27T05:14:00Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > absent skullduggery If Biden wins by one state- and that really close- there will be “skullduggery”. If Biden sweeps, then if skullduggery is tried- the guillotines will roll out. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 9:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/175 "2020-10-27T09:52:07Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > If Biden sweeps, then if skullduggery is tried- the guillotines will roll out. If Biden sweeps, then many Trump supporters will literally be up in arms claiming that the Democrats cheated. Because that’s the narrative Trump, the right-wing media and their Russian friends have been pushing hard for at least a year. A disturbing number of them can’t _conceive_ of an America in which their POV is one of a dwindling minority, and therefore if they lose it’s because of foul play. Either way, it’s going to be a bumpy ride for the next four years. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/176 "2020-10-27T11:47:22Z")
Also posted in Voting by Mail thread. > **[Brett Kavanaugh Signals He’s Open to Stealing the Election for Trump](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/brett-kavanaugh-mail-ballots-trump-fraud.html)** > > Justice Kavanaugh cast doubt on the validity of mail ballots and endorsed a theory too extreme for the Bush v. Gore majority. > As the Senate was voting to elevate Amy Coney Barrett to a lifetime position on the Supreme Court on Monday night, the immediate stakes for the entire country were made suddenly clear by a critical election ruling from the court she now joins. On Monday night, Justice Brett Kavanaugh released a radical and brazenly partisan [opinion](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a66_b07d.pdf#page=6) that dashed any hopes he, as the Supreme Court’s [new median justice](https://twitter.com/LeahLitman/status/1320892119981133825), might slow-walk the court’s impending conservative revolution, while also threatening the integrity of next week’s election. In an 18-page lecture, the justice cast doubt on the legitimacy of many mail ballots and endorsed the most sinister component of _Bush v. Gore_. America’s new median justice is not a friend to democracy and we may pay the price for Barrett’s confirmation in just eight days. > > Monday’s [order](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a66_b07d.pdf) from the Supreme Court blocked a federal judge’s order that had tweaked Wisconsin’s voting laws in light of the pandemic. The judge directed election officials to count ballots that were postmarked by Election Day but received by Nov. 9, finding that the unprecedented demand for mail ballots combined with Postal Service delays could disenfranchise up to 100,000 voters. An appeals court [blocked his decision](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/wisconsin-pandemic-absentee-voting-disenfranchised.html) on Oct. 8, and on Monday, SCOTUS kept it on hold by a 5–3 vote. … > > Kavanaugh’s opinion is the most notable of the bunch because he is the new median justice and the opinion is frankly terrifying. In one passage, Kavanaugh attempted to defend the Wisconsin law disqualifying ballots received after Election Day. He pointed out that “most States” share this policy, explaining: > > > Those States want to avoid the chaos and suspicions of impropriety that can ensue if thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election. And those States also want to be able to definitively announce the results of the election on election night, or as soon as possible thereafter. > > Kavanaugh then quoted New York University Law Professor Richard Pildes stating that the “longer after Election Day any significant changes in vote totals take place, the greater the risk that the losing side will cry that the election has been stolen.” (Kavanaugh was quoting an [article](https://twitter.com/MarshallCohen/status/1320933212005294081) in which Pildes encouraged states to extend their ballot deadlines, directly contradicting Kavanaugh’s argument.) > > It is genuinely alarming that the justice cast these aspersions on late-arriving ballots. In at least 18 states and the District of Columbia, election officials _do_ count ballots that arrive after Election Day. And, in these states, there is no result to “flip” because [there is no result to overturn](https://twitter.com/Josh_Moon/status/1320912541330137089) until all valid ballots are counted. Further, George W. Bush’s 2000 election legal team—which included Barrett, Kavanaugh, and Roberts—[argued](https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/15/us/examining-the-vote-how-bush-took-florida-mining-the-overseas-absentee-vote.html) during that contested election that ballots arriving late and without postmarks, which were thought to benefit Bush, must be counted in Florida. > > Finally, and most importantly, **late-arriving ballots have handed the election to a candidate who was behind on election night on many occasions in the United States** —most recently, in multiple California congressional races in 2018. > … My bold. Of course, THAT’S the big worry. If DJT wins, this is how he will do it. ---
**Author:** ![Mike\_Mabes](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mike_mabes/32/1782_2.png) [@Mike\_Mabes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mike_Mabes)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/177 "2020-10-27T19:40:05Z")
This sounds familar. Will it actutally happen this time? And will it help Biden? _The findings also echo the favorability Obama had in the 2008 poll, when 59% of young voters favored him; 60% of young voters in this year’s poll favor Joe Biden._ _Enthusiasm is far higher for Donald Trump among his supporters, however: 44% of Trump voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, as compared with only 30% of Biden voters about their candidate._ Let’s hope those less enthusiastic about Biden are excited to vote against Trump. > **[More Young Voters Say They Will ‘Definitely’ Vote This Year Than Prior Elections](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2020/09/21/more-young-voters-say-they-will-definitely-vote-this-year-than-prior-elections/#4a7f7df656f1)** > > The percentage of 18-29 year olds who plan to vote has gone up by 16% since 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/178 "2020-10-27T21:16:43Z")
> [@Mike\_Mabes](#): > > _Enthusiasm is far higher for Donald Trump among his supporters, however: 44% of Trump voters are “very enthusiastic” about voting for him, as compared with only 30% of Biden voters about their candidate._ > > Let’s hope those less enthusiastic about Biden are excited to vote against Trump. Polls should ask these two questions separately 1. Are you enthusiastic about voting for Candidate X? 2. Are you enthusiastic about voting against Candidate Y? In Biden’s case I assume the number from the second question above will be higher than from the first question. That would still be in Biden’s favor though since enthusiasm is what gets people out to vote. (I assume voting against someone is not as motivating for someone in more “normal” elections, but in this one I think voting against Trump is quite motivating for a large chunk of people) ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 9:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/179 "2020-10-27T21:59:18Z")
> [@Polerius](#): > > (I assume voting against someone is not as motivating for someone in more “normal” elections, but in this one I think voting against Trump is quite motivating for a large chunk of people) I was _very enthusiastic_ when voting for Obama. I’m _happy_ to be voting for Biden. I’m _fucking intense_ about voting against Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2020, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525/180 "2020-10-27T22:11:39Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I was _very enthusiastic_ when voting for Obama. I’m _happy_ to be voting for Biden. I’m _fucking intense_ about voting against Trump. Same. Biden was about my fifth choice out of the Democratic candidates on offer. I’m not excited about him but he’s fine, and he’s still _miles_ better than the the alternate on offer in terms of “likely damage to the country and its residents”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-2020-us-presidential-election/922525.md?page=10)