# Predictions for the future: are we headed for a calamity? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2018, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029 "2018-11-05T18:39:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Ulfreida](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ulfreida/32/8014_2.png) [@Ulfreida](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ulfreida)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/41 "2018-11-06T17:27:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > This stuff always makes me laugh. It’s completely unscientific to assume that “the planet” is somehow in danger because of us. That there is some scientifically definable good condition for “the planet” to be in. And that’s not even touching on the moral aspect of wishing death to 95% of the people alive today (one wonders if that includes you and your family members in the pool of potential fatalities). > Your argument just went from unscientific to logically contradicting itself: 1. The planet itself (geologically speaking) is not in danger. That would be obvious, eh? Life, even, is not in danger. The web of life that supports **us** , yes, that is in danger. There is no scientifically definable good condition because science has no morality. My own definition of good will have to suffice. I’ll call it “the greatest good for the greatest number” which is to say, the plethora of species and niches for them we have always known but have been hard at work destroying as fast as we possibly can. One may wonder no longer, yes I include myself and my family. Humans are an epidemic, a blight. Their hideous deeds outweigh their noble and beautiful ones by such a vast margin. And always, more so. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/42 "2018-11-06T17:57:00Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > The [chart](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/03/23/true-fact-the-lack-of-pirates-is-causing-global-warming/#384e398c3a67) says that to fix the problem we need more pirates. What the fuck? That article makes no mention of the Holy Colander. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/43 "2018-11-06T18:07:39Z")
> [@Saffer](#): > > Lately it seems pretty easy for me to convince myself that we have a global disaster on the horizon, as a result of population growth and climate change. The thought stream usually goes along the lines of: > The population is growing rapidly. > People consume energy. > We are getting more people, so we need more energy. > We are burning more carbon. > The climate effects of burning carbon probably have a delayed effect ( I don’t have a cite for this, this is just the thought stream in my head). > Climate change is a train that ain’t gonna stop any time soon. > We have decimated wildlife globally in recent decades at an unprecedented rate, and we are clearly in the midst of an anthropogenic mass extinction. > We are getting more droughts and this will get worse. > We are getting more floods and this will get worse. > The land that will become less productive for growing food, far exceeds the land that might become more productive, as a result of climate change. > We will have more mouths to feed and less land on which to grow food. > Food scarcity is going to become a much bigger problem globally. > Unrest in developing countries will increase and governments will become unstable. > Developing economies will suffer, and the suffering spreads to developed nations eventually, due to how interdependent the global economy is. > Mass migrations will be a common theme. > Generally bad times for everyone. > > Like I said, this is a thought stream that I have sometimes. I am aware I don’t have a cite for any of it. I guess what I am looking for is a healthy debate on the merits of such an outlook. There are plenty of people on this board who know a lot more about the world than I do, and no one in my life right know seems to have a convincing countering opinion. But that doesn’t mean that such an opinion doesn’t exist, and the best place I know to find one is right here! > > Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well, I’m sure others have already addressed climate change, so I’ll just briefly say that you are wrong about population increase. It’s not increasing rapidly…the opposite is true in fact. There are a lot of places on the planet where the norm is less than 3 kids per couple…in fact, 2.5-2 kids is becoming the norm. Even in Africa, one of the places still experiencing growth, it’s starting to come down. What we are seeing today is just the nature momentum of the increase that happened when, relatively suddenly, we went from the norm being half or more of children died early to most children surviving. However, as people have gotten relatively more wealthy and as their expectation that their most of their kids would live the number of children per couple has come down. From what I recall, they expect it to peak sometime this century at about 11-12 billion before starting to drop. Leaving aside climate change and just looking at population I think we can handle the expected increase. Of course, the issue is that as folks get more wealthy they start to have a larger carbon foot print, so it’s a bit of a vicious cycle. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/44 "2018-11-06T18:07:53Z")
Great observations. There are obviously no connection between cheap abundant energy and scientific breakthroughs. These scientists could find the time to model future climate with pine cones and thread in between their subsistence farming duties. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/45 "2018-11-06T18:32:40Z")
For crying out loud. Dude, we can still have capitalism and believe that climate change is going to be a big issue in the future. Addressing climate change doesn’t necessarily imply Stalinist-style economic control. When you complain that the climate change issue is just a cover for socialism, you’re just encouraging socialism. As Hank Hill once said about Christian rock, you’re not making Christianity better, you’re making rock and roll worse. How do we address carbon emissions under a capitalist framework? I don’t know, how about a fucking carbon tax? It’s currently free to dump CO2 into the atmosphere. Everyone understands market failures, because a free market solution requires a sovereign to enforce the rules of the marketplace, because otherwise people with guns don’t have to pay, and then the market disappears. If fossil fuels can only survive if it’s free to dump CO2 into the atmosphere, this is a good thing? There are alternatives, dude. And when there aren’t alternatives, then people can just get used to paying the higher price. If fossil fuels can only survive because they’re subsidized, and our prosperous civilization depends on fossil fuels, then so much for free market capitalism being the solution to everything, because now you’re arguing that government subsidies for fossil fuels are the only thing saving humanity from disaster. So which is it? Are you in favor of subsidizing fossil fuels or not? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/46 "2018-11-06T18:42:43Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > It is about limiting access to fossil fuel technology through legislation, no? If you take away access, you take away energy and drive energy prices up. This means humans must divert resources from other fruitful avenues of research and capital investment and find ways to produce energy without fossil fuels. Limiting access by taxing some forms of energy to reflect their environmental cost? If we do that, we drive development of more sustainable energy - through capitalism, as companies compete to make money on solar. Do you really think there isn’t enough R&D money to fund both energy research and other kinds of research? And how do you define fruitful? Energy investment seems more fruitful to me than VC money into yet another social media app. But the VCs have plenty of money to do both, as far as I can tell. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2018, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/47 "2018-11-06T18:45:58Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > This means humans must divert resources from other fruitful avenues of research and capital investment and find ways to produce energy without fossil fuels. > [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Great observations. There are obviously no connection between cheap abundant energy and scientific breakthroughs. These scientists could find the time to model future climate with pine cones and thread in between their subsistence farming duties. Again, you’re painting this as a false dilemma of either we have government butt out of the issue of energy and we have puppies, rainbows, and advanced technology; or the government does a single thing with respect to energy and we are headed back to the dark ages. The government putting its thumb on the scales in favor of cleaner energy will not doom us to anything, and scientific progress will continue. People who believe otherwise need to get a grip, and not be so emotional about things. I mean, just use your brain: a carbon tax that equates to a several cents per gallon of gas isn’t going to send us back to the stone ages where we must rely on pine cones for heating. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2018, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029/48 "2018-11-07T01:51:33Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > The government putting its thumb on the scales in favor of cleaner energy will not doom us to anything, and scientific progress will continue. People who believe otherwise need to get a grip, and not be so emotional about things. I mean, just use your brain: a carbon tax that equates to a several cents per gallon of gas isn’t going to send us back to the stone ages where we must rely on pine cones for heating. California, by requiring a special blend of gas, has been doing this for a long time, and our air is much cleaner than it used to be. Plus we have more hybrids and electric cars than just about anywhere in the US. 40 years ago when I visited my parents in LA the news would have the pollution levels as a regular feature. Today it only comes up when there is a fire. That is progress. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-for-the-future-are-we-headed-for-a-calamity/824029.md?page=2)