Going by the exit polls, it looks like Huckabee and McCain and running neck-and-neck, and Romney and Thompson are tied for a distant third.
This is not good for the Thompson campaign. He needed to break away from Romney and finish strongly in the top group. If he doesn’t, then I predict one of two things:
If Huckabee wins, the race is still wide open, and I think Thompson may stick around for a while.
If McCain wins, I think there will be some pressure on Thompson to pack it up and throw his support to McCain and try to push him over the top.
Romney finishes the day about where he started - with a loss in SC but a win in Nevada, he’s just as viable as he was before, and still in the top tier of candidates.
If Huckabee loses, I think he’s in big trouble. This is the high-water mark for his support. Moving down into Florida is going to be very costly for him. If he loses by more than a few points to McCain, I think he’s done.
If McCain wins, I’d say the race is going to be between Romney and McCain, with Guliani a wildcard pending the Florida results. Thompson would make an excellent running mate for Romney. If McCain wins, I think Thompson is too old to be his running mate - McCain will have to go after someone younger to keep the ticket looking like the old men against the Democratic fresh faces.
Huckabee once again finished 4th among non-evangelicals in SC.
How many evangelicals are there in Florida?
There’s only one reason Thompson may stay in now - to hack away at Huckabee and clear the road for McCain. And he may just do that, at least until Super Tuesday. So long as he can continue to raise funds on his web site, he’s really got nothing to lose, and if he can pick up enough delegates in the South to be a reasonable-sized bloc at a brokered convention, he’s still got some leverage to push the party in the direction he wants it to go or to land a VP job, if he wants it.
SC voters also gave McCain a huge edge in electability over Huckelbee, too. He should start trumpeting that in his stump speeches. I think he or Giuliani are the only two that stand a chance against either Clinton or Obama.
McCain is looking pretty old, though. It’s going to be tough going for him.
Romney and Guiliani are not to be dismissed yet. If Huck doesn’t win FL (yes win, no "strong showing) he is pretty much toast. Guiliani also must win FL.
Right now McCain is polling about 5 pts higher than Huckabee, and (I think) 1 or 2 pts higher than Giuliani. I think we’ve seen the beginning of the end for Huckabee. Giuliani is fighting an uphill battle, but he’s a tough S.O.B., and I wouldn’t count him out until after Super Tues.
I’m still baffled as to why Arnold has not endorsed anyone yet. He’s gotta be behind either Rudy or McCain.
After this win, I think the next polls out of Florida are likely to show McCain with a double-digit lead.
McCain’s not a bad choice, though. His age is a big problem, but if Obama gets nominated I think you’re going to see the race played out as youth vs experience and gravitas. McCain does have that going for him. He’s also got a lot of crossover appeal and can attract a lot of moderates.
If I were an American, I could live with any of the top four Republicans except Huckabee. Seriously, if Huckabee were the nominee I would vote for Obama or Hillary over him. He strikes me as a complete disaster were he to be president. He seems affable to me, but just not that bright. I think Bush looks like a genius compared to him. And you get a bad combination of Democrat-lite fiscal policy and far-right social policy, administered by someone who is not as bright as either of the two Democratic front-runners. Yuck.