# Predictions: The Prime Minister of Ethiopia **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [August 4, 2012, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435 "2012-08-04T17:11:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/1 "2012-08-04T17:11:37Z")
This is akin to my old [Nigeria thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=11988085). The Prime Minister of Ethiopia ([Meles Zenawi](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meles_Zenawi)) has not been publicly seen since [mid-June](http://www.economist.com/node/21559971) when he missed an international conference (very uncharacteristic of him). Since then there’s been health rumors spreading that range from mild illness to fatal illness to he’s already dead. The Ethiopian government has kept very quiet about all of this except to say that “he’s a bit ill”, “he’s still in control”, and that “[he’s improving](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19078358)”. However, in realty [no one knows](http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/02/is_ethiopia_s_pm_dead_or_just_on_holiday) [the real score](http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2012/08/03/Health-of-Ethiopias-PM-Zenawi-unknown/UPI-78651344016896/); also if this was just a minor illness (the government’s line) it would only take one tv/radio interview of Zenawi alive to stop the rumors… This seems to have a very similar ring to it. [ul] [li]In 2010, Nigeria’s [Yar’Adua](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umaru_Musa_Yar'Adua) administration soldiered despite being handicapped by a secretly comatose/dying leader for months (before the Vice president [Goodluck Jonathan](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodluck_Jonathan) finally was able to wrestle power away from Yar’Adua’s men). \*see my above thread[/li][li]The president of Malawi [Binguwa Mutharika](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bingu_wa_Mutharika) had fallen ill in late 2011 but his government refused to acknowledge it ([saying he was on “holiday”](http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2061805/Malawi-president-Bingu-wa-Mutharika-Im-dead-Im-holiday.html)) until he died a few months later.[/li][li]In late April, Eritrea’s President [Isaias Afewerki](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaias_Afewerki) went on national TV to dispel [rumors about his untimely death](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17883320).[/li][/ul]So, what do you think? Do you think Zenawi is alive, dead, seriously ill? If he dies how is this gonna play out for Africa’s second most populous country? Will there be an orderly transition of power or will everything go to pot? ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/2 "2012-08-04T17:18:01Z")
My own guess to Zenawi’s ill health is a big ??? but I say that it MUST be serious if he can’t even make a quick 15 min appearance on TV to dispel rumours of his death. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/3 "2012-08-04T22:38:54Z")
> [@orcenio](#): > > My own guess to Zenawi’s ill health is a big ??? but I say that it MUST be serious if he can’t even make a quick 15 min appearance on TV to dispel rumours of his death. Unless his enemies control the TV station. 🙂 I need to make a note about this guy for next year’s Death Pool, just in case he lives to the end of the year. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2012, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/4 "2012-08-05T01:50:04Z")
Here’s a good book on the subject of impaired leaders: [http://www.amazon.com/When-Illness-Strikes-Leader-Dilemma/dp/0300063148/ref=sr\_1\_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1344131219&sr=8-1&keywords=when+illness+strikes+the+leader](http://www.amazon.com/When-Illness-Strikes-Leader-Dilemma/dp/0300063148/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1344131219&sr=8-1&keywords=when+illness+strikes+the+leader) The authors make the point that ill bigwigs often get WORSE medical care than common folk, because of doctors chosen more for their political reliability/discretion than medical skill, manueverings among their top advisors, being forced to keep up a wearying pace of public duties, etc. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [August 5, 2012, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/5 "2012-08-05T02:35:42Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > I need to make a note about this guy for next year’s Death Pool, just in case he lives to the end of the year. You could always claim him for 2013 and explain that he died retroactively. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![orcenio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/orcenio/32/1036_2.png) [@orcenio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/orcenio)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2012, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-the-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/630435/6 "2012-08-21T08:41:16Z")
To put all [rumours to rest](http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jx0ahCZ_pVU66fsqC96kML3xlrQA?docId=ad511e700135490e95c3419a6d718eec).