# Predictions: Which states will pass anti-gay marriage amendments? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 6, 2004, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800 "2004-03-06T01:54:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 5\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2004, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800/1 "2004-03-06T01:54:03Z")
SF and NY are getting lots of press these days about the same sex marriages taking place there, but what is not being well reported are the numerous efforts by some states to amend their various constitutions to disallow gay marriage. [Wisconsin and Kansas took big steps recently (it was not easy to find a link, and I had to resort to this inderect article):](http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/8117768.htm) > [@](#): > > Also Friday, lawmakers in Wisconsin and Kansas pushed ahead with efforts to amend their states’ constitutions to ban gay marriage, while a similar measure died in Idaho. > > The proposal approved by the Wisconsin Assembly 68-27…In Kansas, the House voted 88-36 for an amendment to ban gay marriages… > > \ > > Fourteen states are seeking this year to amend their constitutions to ban same-sex marriages. States in recent years have already acted broadly in opposition to the prospect of same-sex marriages, passing so-called Defense of Marriage laws in 38 states. Four have amended their own constitutions to define marriage as between a man and a woman. I have no idea why this isn’t making the news more prominently. It’s a huge set-back for gays, and is much more significant than the effort to amend the US constitution (which I think has no chance of passing). The purpose of this thread is \*\*not \*\* intended for folks to weigh in on whether this is right or wrong, but to predict: **Which states are going to ban gay marriage by passing consitutional amendments?** I suspect we’ll see this spread thru the South, most of the midwest, and a good portion of the Rocky Mtn states, pretty much following the “red state” pattern of the 2000 electoral map. I’d even give CA at least a 50/50 chance of passing an amendment, with a good possibility of this being a ballot initiative in Nov. ---
**Author:** ![pothead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ecb155/32.png) [@pothead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pothead)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2004, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800/2 "2004-03-06T02:34:09Z")
I conjecture that every state will in the next decade legalize gay marriage either by themselves or because of a Constitutional Amendment. It would seem inevitable that a movement thats getting so much media attention and has the potential to be the abolition/women’s suffrage/civil rights equivalent of our era to succeed. I can’t really find any sort of solid argument why this is so- only past examples, but the same question can be asked for those (Why did they succeed?) and only vague answers of circumstance are available. ---
**Author:** ![SnoopyFan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d07c76/32.png) [@SnoopyFan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SnoopyFan)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2004, 6:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800/3 "2004-03-06T06:31:19Z")
I imagine West Virginia and Kentucky would. Definitely Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2004, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800/4 "2004-03-06T17:39:37Z")
> [@pothead](#): > > I conjecture that every state will in the next decade legalize gay marriage either by themselves or because of a Constitutional Amendment. So, you are predicting that the 4 states that have already amended their constitutions to make gay marriage illegal will enact new amendments to abolish the old ones? I find that highly improbable. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2004, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictions-which-states-will-pass-anti-gay-marriage-amendments/232800/5 "2004-03-06T19:58:41Z")
I don’t think Ohio will pass a constitutional amendment just yet. Gov. Taft has no popularity. Many very conservative people I know are sick of the whole gay marriage thing. With a state unemployment rate of 6.2%, social issues as a distraction aren’t going to work. Besides, the Republicans already passed a Defense of Marriage act.