# Predictive failures of science fiction **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [June 20, 2004, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333 "2004-06-20T19:38:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![mbh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@mbh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mbh)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2004, 8:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333/81 "2004-06-23T20:33:54Z")
> [@](#): > > by Baldwin: > As far as I know, none of the major science fiction writers predicted modern self-opening beer cans Heinlein and Clarke both mentioned them. They talked about food and beverage containers with “pre-stressed lids” that would open when you pressed them in the right way. > [@](#): > > by BrainGlutton: > I don’t know whether any SF writer predicted this, but there really are teratogenic mutants in the modern world – I seem to recall a National Geographic article which mentioned an abnormally high rate of birth defects in the region around Chernobyl. Maybe not matinee-movie style mutants, but mutations nonetheless. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Death](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ecccb3/32.png) [@Evil\_Death](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Death)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2004, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333/82 "2004-06-23T21:21:52Z")
> [@Wendell Wagner](#): > > Evil Death writes: > > \> The explanation I prefer is that IQ tests have dumbed down because telling > \> the public they’re thick as pigshit isn’t conducive to getting your grant renewed. > > O.K., you’ve now demonstrated that you know absolutely nothing about what the Flynn Effect says. The point of the Flynn Effect is that in order to keep the average I.Q. on a test always equal to 100, the tests have actually become harder as time has gone on. There’s no dispute at all about the fact that the scores on I.Q. tests would have gone up if the same scores were used. The only dispute is what this means. Go and do some serious reading about the Flynn Effect instead of making up nonsense. I was snarking. I also thought it was fairly obvious that I wasn’t serious. As to the Flynn Effect, you cannot assume it is generated by a rise in IQ. A batch of American IQ tests “proved” immigrants had lower IQs, but said immigrants did far better on later batches. Why? Because the earlier tests had a cultural bias to the questions that was removed in the later tests. This is a graphic illustration of the simplest explanation for the Flynn Effect: we are better at designing tests that accurately measure IQ than we were before. (PS: The vBulletin software will do quoting for you. Just hit Quote instead of Reply.) ---
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2004, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333/83 "2004-06-24T20:25:46Z")
> [@Baldwin](#): > > Getting back to the subject – Ted Sturgeon predicted fax machines in the 1940s story “Microcosmic God”. What sort of fax machine did he predict? It was originally invented in 1842. Also, from [Alexander Bain and the First Fax](http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/blfax.htm) : > [@](#): > > The American Telephone & Telegraph Company (AT&T) worked to improve telephone facsimile technology, and in 1924, the telephotography machine was used to send political convention photos long distance for newspaper publication. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d26b3c/32.png) [@Mr.Blue\_Sky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Blue_Sky)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2004, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333/84 "2004-06-24T23:17:42Z")
> [@rowrrbazzle](#): > > What sort of fax machine did he predict? It was originally invented in 1842. Also, from [Alexander Bain and the First Fax](http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/blfax.htm) : It was even featured on an episode of _The Secret Life of Machines_. No one thought the device was of any use since there wasn’t a whole lot of need to get a message right away. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-failures-of-science-fiction/251333.md?page=4)