# Predictive policing. Good, bad, or other? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 25, 2018, 7:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544 "2018-07-25T07:10:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DavidwithanR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/3bc359/32.png) [@DavidwithanR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidwithanR)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2018, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/21 "2018-07-27T22:02:30Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Misreporting a white crime as a black crime isn’t going to change the pattern. The algorithm is based on total crimes reported, so saying “a black guy stole my car” when it was really a white guy still results in a report of a crime and has the same level of effect in causing the area to be labeled as higher crime and more patrols. I’d think the issue here would mostly be people doing their best to report “black man walking on the sidewalk” as a crime, and that it wouldn’t usually be people seeing an actual crime and then lying about or misreporting someone’s skin color. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [July 27, 2018, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/22 "2018-07-27T22:27:17Z")
This paper analyzes the risks of predictive policing [https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.09847.pdf](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.09847.pdf) Abstract “Predictive policing systems are increasingly used to determine how to allocate policeacross a city in order to best prevent crime. Discovered crime data (e.g., arrest counts) are used to help update the model, and the process is repeated. Such systems have been empirically shown to be susceptible to runaway feedback loops, where police are repeatedly sent back to the same neighborhoods regardless of the true crime rate. In response, we develop a mathematical model of predictive policing that proves why this feedback loop occurs, show empirically that this model exhibits such problems, and demonstrate how to change the inputs to a predictive policing system (ina black-box manner) so the runaway feed-back loop does not occur, allowing the true crime rate to be learned. Our results are quantitative: we can establish a link (in our model) between the degree to which run-away feedback causes problems and the dis-parity in crime rates between areas. Moreover, we can also demonstrate the way in which reported incidents of crime (those reported by residents) and discovered incidents of crime (i.e. those directly observed by police officers dispatched as a result of the predictive policing algorithm) interact: in brief, while reported incidents can attenuate the degree of runaway feedback, they cannot entirely remove it without the interventions we suggest.” ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/23 "2018-08-02T19:03:42Z")
> [@GulfTiger](#): > > It’s a computer. How can a computer be racist? It can and does happen > **[Twitter taught Microsoft’s AI chatbot to be a racist asshole in less than a day](https://www.theverge.com/2016/3/24/11297050/tay-microsoft-chatbot-racist)** > > The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts. > **[How search engines are making us more racist](https://www.vox.com/2018/4/3/17168256/google-racism-algorithms-technology)** > > A new book shows how Google’s search algorithms quietly reinforce racist stereotypes. not that these examples are entirely relevant to the situation at hand. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/24 "2018-08-02T21:00:42Z")
Not only am I in favor of it, but I don’t see the problem with putting demographics in there too. On a per capita basis: Men commit more serious crimes than women. Young people commit more serious crimes than the elderly The poor commit more serious crimes than the upper middle class Blacks commit more serious crimes than whites. People with head injuries commit more serious crimes than people without. People with high levels of lead commit more serious crimes than people with low levels. As a man, I don’t like the idea of being treated like a criminal everywhere I go just because I come from a demographic that commits more crimes. But at the same time I wouldn’t mind a computer program that factors in the fact that men are more prone to crime than women. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2018, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/25 "2018-08-03T12:24:35Z")
> [@DavidwithanR](#): > > I’d think the issue here would mostly be people doing their best to report “black man walking on the sidewalk” as a crime, and that it wouldn’t usually be people seeing an actual crime and then lying about or misreporting someone’s skin color. The anti-predictive policing folks are objecting to increased police presence in high-crime areas because it targets non-whites. Non-white areas aren’t going to report “black man walking on the sidewalk” as a crime. From the cite in the OP - > [@](#): > > Early each morning, computers spit out maps of Los Angeles, marked with red squares where a complex algorithm has judged that property crimes are most likely to occur. Walking on the sidewalk is not a property crime. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Jasmine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jasmine/32/2964_2.png) [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2018, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/26 "2018-08-03T12:33:08Z")
It’s using modern technology in an intelligent manner in order to allocate police resources in the most efficient manner possible. If there are glitches in the system, fix the glitches, don’t throw away the intelligent model. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2018, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544/27 "2018-08-03T16:01:10Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > To be clear, shooting and killing people is good. But only in town. You are only to murder-kill animals and space invaders if you are a country dweller. > > Just in case that wasn’t clear. > > 😉 Glad to get that cleared up. 😃 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/predictive-policing-good-bad-or-other/818544.md?page=1)