I love 'Vettes (they’re on the background for my computer, have many books on them, and I have a display of 'vette minature cars in my room), so I hope they would. I’ll have one as soon as I graduate college, so that’s all that matters. I sincerly hope that the newer Mustangs do not, seeing as they bring shame of the orginal Mustangs. Cameros may, but I’m pretty indifferent about them. The only thing I can be sure of is that no car today can compare with their vintage counterparts.
Mini Cooper
Honda S2000
BMW Z3
Maybe that new Infiniti sport wagon?
When I replied, I felt that in the interest of completeness I had to include the cars that people in the article thought would be “future classics”. I felt the Porsche 914 should be included because it’s not yet a “classic” (i.e., they are not “sought after” cars) but I think they have the potential to be. And while it’s not available new, there are tons of them around so that people can start collecting inexpensively.
But you’re looking for new cars that may become classics. I still tend to agree that the Mazda Miata will be one. They have a fairly large following, and I’m starting to notice the differences between the older ones and the newer ones on my daily commute (which is 86 miles round-trip in the car-rich L.A. area freeway environment). But I don’t think they’ll become “classics” until about 20-25 years after they stop making them.
I think the Ford retro-T-Bird will become a classic because of the small numbers produced and because of the current “retro” craze. Soon people will grow weary of looking backward for styling queues and there will be new designs. “Retro-style” cars will then start to be attractive to collectors a couple of decades after the last one is produced. This would include the PT Cruiser, BMW Mini and the VW New Beetle. Strides are being made in the alternative power arena (hybrid and fuel cell vehicles). When form follows function the retro look will fade as people buy more fuel-efficient, lower-polluting vehicles that place an emphasis on being slippery more than being a certain “look”.
Are cars “generic-looking” nowadays? Of course they are. 1940s cars “all look the same” to me. They all look like “Bulgemobiles”. 1950s cars look alike to me as well. In the 1960s the style tended toward “jet” designs. Low profiles and wide stances. But these cars – even the most mundane of them – are “classics” now. Why? Because they are becoming scarce. Who would have thought an old Falcon would be an object of desire 40 years later?
As Leno et al pointed out, “rarity is supposed to determine value, and there are zillions on the road”. But over the years many cars are lost through collisions. More are just “worn out” and deemed not worth fixing. They are cannibalized or scrapped. Again I’ll point to the MGB. With over half a million made (including the GT and the MGC), used ones became very cheap to buy. Being cheap, many people would drive them for a while until they became too expensive to maintain or until they found something more exciting. A few fell into the hands of “collectors”; but many more just rusted away, were lost to collisions, or used as parts for other MGBs. Now the most recent prices I’ve seen for restored mid-1960s MGBs sold at auction have been $15,000 to $18,000. There’s a 1967 model on eBay that has been appraised at (IIRC) $34,000.
So even if there were a large number of a particular car made, it can become a “classic” if enough of them are lost through attrition.
But a better bet might be to look at cars that were made in small numbers at the outset. How many Acura NSXs do you see on the road? How many Ferraris? Sure, you see them; but not hundreds on your daily commute. They are expensive to buy, so their numbers will always be fewer. Usually.
The Porsche 911 series has been in production since 1964 – in spite of Porsche’s attempts to supplant it in the late-1970s and early-1980s with the 928. You can’t go a mile around here without seeing a Porsche. Certainly the latest 911 is beyond the reach of most people, but you still see a lot of them. Older ones are common and fairly inexpensive (say, $8,000 - $35,000 depending on year and type). The earlier models (pre-1974) are becoming classics, but the newer ones before the 911/993 are basically just old cars.
So in addition to rarity (whether because of low initial number or through attrition), styling is part of the equation.
Styling tastes usually change quickly. People will eventually tire of the current retro fad. The T-Bird is already going out of production. I think that “stylish” cars will become “classics” more quickly than run-of-the-mill cars (like the 1960s family sedans and coupés).
What about the rest? Specialized cars like the Miata, Corvette, and Viper will become classics. (I’d say the Viper has the best shot in the near-term.) So will “exotics” like Ferrari, Lotus, Lamborghini, etc. Toyota MR-2s (“Mister Twos”, as I call them) will have a following. But will “family cars” become classics? It will take two or three decades after they stop production, and the loss of a large number of them that are currently on the road.
For current cars that I think will become classics, I am going to go with a few. I am going to leave out expensive/specialty cars as there will always be a market for 911’s, Corvette’s, Viper’s, etc…
Ford Mustang, since now it is the last V-8 RWD sporty car being built by a domestic automaker. It already has a following, and IMO will remain that way.
Miata. Before it was even mentioned, I already would have picked it, as it is the same in spirit to the MGB’s that preceded it.
Oldsmobile Aurora, I am including it since it is still in production, but I am limiting my scope to the 95-99 models. Eye catching style, and fairly low production. Supposed to have been Oldsmobile’s savior, but instead was poorly marketed by GM, and failed to help. Now with Olds doomed, it will go down as the last “great” Oldsmobile.
Honda s2000.
Mercury Marauder.
Cadillac XLR
Nissan 350Z
Ford Lightning
As for the retro cars, I dunno. They are unique now, but fail to have their own personalities. Most come off as poor imitations of cars from the past, minus their charms. I think cars like the PT Cruiser will be more like niche vehicles. While some people will desire to have them, on the whole they will be overlooked. The Thunderbird I think will befall this fate.
The WRX STI and EVO’s will probably follow the same route as the Mustang has. While we might not think them worthy of being a classic for being essentially hot family sedans, understand that the current generation of Import Tuners revere these cars. Also bear in mind that the much loved Mustang was no better, a Ford Falcon with a pretty face. Once the current crop of import lovers reach middle age, and start looking for their youth back, expect prices on these cars to begin increasing.
I am going to include cars such as the Dodge SRT-4, and SVT Focus in this category. Like it or not, these are like the musclecars of this generation.
You beat me to it.
Also:
**GMC Syclone and Typhoon
Buick Grand National and GNX
**
Saab 9-3 aero.
The Chevy SSR.
I’m sorry, the SVT Focus is most certainly NOT a muscle car!
If I had the money and extra garage space, the type of car I would buy to speculate would definitely be a Japanese sports car as expensive as I could afford. Honda’s S-2000 is an excellent choice, Toyota has a few, but look at the Mazda RX-7 Spirit or wait until they turbocharge an RX-8.
YMMVBIGMIAIYMTP
(Your mileage may vary but if gas mileage is an issue you’re missing the point.)
I read an article which claimed the Lincoln Mark VIII will be a “classic” car, but I couldn’t find them on Lincoln website. They must not be sold any longer.
According to the kelly Blue Book site, 1998 was the last model year for t he Mark VIII.
Here’s what the Mark IX might look like.
Execs at Ford and/or Lincoln have obviously forgotten why Contienentals are called that. If you’re not going to have anything even remotely resembling a Continental spare, why bother with any sort of hump in the deck lid at all?
Without exaggeration, that is probably the ugliest vehicle I have ever seen. It has a grill like a Mack truck, and the body-colored interior looks kitschy. The only element that struck me was that visually compelling, futuristic instrument panel.
That type of blunt, “European-style” grill is one reason why I dislike the new Caddilacs so heartily. They look chunky and crude to me.
How about the Plymouth Prowler? Unique styling, good performance, out of production, very few made.
One of the difficulties about identifying the ‘classics’ today is that a lot depends on what happens in the next decade. The muscle cars of the 60’s achieved classic status because the cars of the 70’s were absolute crap, and regulations and gas prices caused the horsepower wars to end. So in a sense, they were the pinnacle of achievement in autos, for people who wanted that sort of thing.
But now, we have tons of cars out there making more than 300hp. And quite a few making over 400hp. Hell, the Mercedes E55 AMG has a 469 HP engine in it, and it’s a family sedan. You can get a Mustang today with a blown 390 HP engine.
The bar will be set by what comes in the future. For example, consider the Mitsubishi Evo and Subaru WRX STi. Both of these vehicles have performance in the ‘supercar’ territory, and would blow the doors off of most of the 60’s era ‘muscle cars’.
If production stopped on those cars next year, and they were never to be seen again, both of them would become instant classics, and the price of them would skyrocket. Because nothing else like them is available, and possibly would not be again.
On the other hand, if next year’s Evo comes out with an additional 20 HP, and Subaru does as well, and Ford brings out an AWD Focus with 250HP, and Pontiac manages to shoehorn a 250HP engine in its Matrix AWD and add handling to match, then those cars will not be collectible. If, 20 years from now, we’re driving cars with electric motors in each wheel providing huge torque and the equivalent of 500 HP, and they go 0-60 in 3.5 seconds and handle like a dream, then none of today’s pocket rockets will have much collectible value.
Don’t mean to hijack, I know you’re lookin’ for today cars, but I must add:
The GN is pretty much a classic already. Same with the Impala SS. The current prices are just below what they went for new, and everybody who knows what they are, wants one.
For the most part you are right.
Additionally, there is no car culture today, there are no crowds at all the car dealers the day that the new models first start showing. In the old days, that is what everyone in town did that day, go see the new cars! On September 21, 1956, EVERYONE went down to their chevy chevy dealer and went to see the 1957 Chevrolet! … and got some rulers, pot holders, balloons, toys, coloring books, etc while they were there, It was a family event to go see the new cars on opening day.
I dont know anyone today who does such things.
Furthermore, we dont have a car culture today. In the old days, we had drivein movies, and drive in restaurants. We loved those cars so much back then(the same cars) that we did not want to leave our old cars, not even to watch a movie nor to eat dinner.
The only cars today that might be considered a classic in the future might be the corvette, the Delorean, the new beetle, and that funny looking chrysler car which already looks old.
I’d forgotten about the Prowler. It doesn’t count, under bernse’s rules, but it will be a classic.
Susanann: I remember when I was a kid that car companies wouldn’t even who their next model. I remember a commercial that showed a family of four “motoring” down the road without a car. (Stop motion animation.) Nowadays the car shows are televised on the local news. Back in the 1960s people sometimes had to wait for the car to show up at the dealership.
I also remember that people tended to buy a new car every few years. My parents got new cars in 1966, then got new new cars in 1970. I’ve heard that before I was born it was common for people to buy a new car every two years. In the 1970s the economy was in recession. People just didn’t have the money to change cars frequently. I think the oil embargos in 1973 and 1979(?), plus the ever-more-stringent emissions laws, made car makers look at efficiency rather than performance. Why get a new model, when you’re not really getting anything “extra”? (Unless, of course, you were replacing your land yacht with an efficient Japanese import.)
So I think that a slow economy, higher car prices, lack of any real innovation for close to a decade, federal regulations, plus better durability (particularly of Japanese cars) and the desire to make one’s expensive investment last “one more year” helped to bring an end to the “car culture”.
Then there are the drive-in theatres you mentioned. In my town in the late-1970s (when I started driving) there was one indoor cinema and four drive-ins. There was one indoor cinema in the next town (seven miles south) and one more drive-in. When we got more indoor cinemas (there was a bit of a boom in the 1980s) people preferred to see films in air-conditioned comfort, with good sound and without having the image washed out by ambient light.
Today I work in Orange County. There is a “car culture” down there: “Ricers”. If you see a customized car, it’s usually a Honda product driven by a 20-year-old. I used to laugh at these guys when I had my Porsche 911, as even with their pretty accessories I could take them easily in a race if I was so inclined. But really, they are just doing the same thing people of my father’s generation did. They buy relatively inexpensive cars and soup them up. More power to them.
And I’m also seeing more and more classic cars on the road. (I started a thread about this – What unusual cars have you seen lately? – a few months ago.)
So the “car culture” might be on its way back.
I wasn’t aware that the original Impala SS was available in a four-door model. 
I second the Audi TT, it is practically already a classic. Also from Audi, I believe the 5000 might be interesting in a few years. It was hailed as a revelation when it was released, and then became notorious after the unfounded “60 Minutes” hatchet job, similar to the Corvair, which is now a collectible car. Audi actually has a few candidates I think: The all-aluminum A8 may have a market for its revolutionary construction, or the B5 (previous generation) A4 for its breakthrough styling that single-handedly resurrected Audi from the brink.
The WRX and Evo will not last long enough to become classics. Their high pressure turbos, along with the prediliction for modification and questionable driving by their likely owners would seem to indicate a short lifespan for the average WRX or Evo.
My additions to the list:
- previous generation (E36) BMW M3
- Cadillac Allante
- Audi 5000
Oh, and Susanann: if you can’t even name the cars you’re talking about, you’re hardly qualified to talk about the existence or not of a car culture
Actually, I think that is a large part of what may actually help them become sought after. The odd example that is owned by an <cough> older, more responsible person not trying to recreate The Fast and the Furious everyday. I think that is what will possibly make the prestine, non abused or modified examples quite valuable.
You haven’t been able to buy any of those cars new for years.
I strongly disagree. I think the car culture is possibly even stronger today. You see fan clubs everywhere (the Internet was a boon for this). I see show/shines almost every weekend in the summer.
There were several reasons you don’t see the aforementioned activities anymore (making a family trip to the dealer), Including:
-Many people (car culture types) that went to the dealerships to just see the car. That isn’t nearly an issue anymore. Cars are advertised for months (if not years!) in the media before they are even released.
-The public has the resources to be very informed about the vehicle before they even see it now. I would hazard a guess and say that many people that go to the showrooms are so informed now, they know more about the vehicle than the salesman.
-It was a form of “family entertainment”. There are far more forms of entertainment for the family to do.
-Cars rarely even come out at a “set” time anymore. Used to be Sept/Oct. Not necessarily anymore. And even when they do come out, its rarely all at once. Some models months of a jump over others.