# President Biden Dropping Out of Race **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** kamala-harris\ **Created:** [July 21, 2024, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540 "2024-07-21T18:05:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 27
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/523 "2024-07-31T08:49:31Z")
> [@Max\_S](#): > > This is his chance to be a kingmaker and really shape the party, i.e. without being in Obama’s shadow. I don’t think this was part of his thinking. Oh, he would want the party to get solidly behind one person, but he doesn’t care about “Obama’s shadow.” ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 11:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/524 "2024-07-31T11:20:12Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > As I’ve alluded to before, it seems like a big part of the “planned in advance” view is disbelief that the Democrats would have fallen in behind Harris so quickly and unanimously without a lot of bargaining and scheming beforehand. How long did it take Democrats for fall in behind Johnson when Kennedy was killed? Yes, this is different. But before Biden stepped down, i was talking with a Republican friend about the possibility, and he was all, “maybe we can have someone good”. i said, “it pretty much has to be Harris”, knowing that he doesn’t like Harris. And he grumbled a bit, but conceded that yeah, it pretty much had to be her. If i was certain enough of that to convince him, when it was still hypothetical, why should it be all that hard to rally the party? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/525 "2024-07-31T13:00:48Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I mean, it’s certainly the first time in my political memory that the Democrats have gotten on the same page so quickly. > > Or at all. I mentioned this in one of the other threads: what about just four years ago, in the 2020 primaries? When Biden surged and the alternative was Bernie\*, the other candidates all quickly got behind Biden, because they judged that he would be the better candidate against Trump. It stood in marked contrast to 2016, when all the mainstream GOP candidates agreed that Trump would be a terrible choice for the party, and then each candidate expected the others to drop out. Result: Trump picked all the mainstream candidates off, one by one, and got the nomination, because none of them could put their party’s best interests ahead of their own egos. That 2020 example seems to have been forgotten, in all the narratives of “Democratic circular firing squads”. - Please, do not turn this comment into a rehash of Bernie/DNC/whatever. I’m just giving 2020 as an historical example. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 1:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/526 "2024-07-31T13:03:20Z")
> [@Northern\_Piper](#): > > Please, do not turn this comment into a rehash of Bernie/DNC/whatever. I’m just giving 2020 as an historical example. And I’m making it official. No rehashes allowed in this thread. **Moderating:** ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/527 "2024-07-31T16:41:06Z")
Don’t even need to go back that far. Every Speaker vote in the House, the Democrats were completely in line. I think the Democrats in disarray stuff was always overblown and more an issue of some people more willing or able to speak openly in public about it was actual disagreement. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_S](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/46a35a/32.png) [@Max\_S](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_S)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/528 "2024-07-31T17:00:16Z")
> [@Love\_Rhombus](#): > > I don’t think this was part of his thinking. Oh, he would want the party to get solidly behind one person, but he doesn’t care about “Obama’s shadow.” Why then did he see fit to throw shade at Obama today? This sounds like a man who is positively concerned with distinguishing his legacy from Obama’s. > “Well, I’m really proud of my position. I was the first guy to come out for gay marriage. Remember that little problem with the Obama administration?” ~Max ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/529 "2024-07-31T17:24:37Z")
In case anyone doubts that quote, it’s on the White House’s website. > **[Remarks by President Biden After Marine One Arrival | The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/30/remarks-by-president-biden-after-marine-one-arrival-23/)** > > THE PRESIDENT:  The only reason I’m coming over is (inaudible) being here so late. Q    Mr. President, what do you want your legacy > Mr. President, how about your legacy for LGBTQ Americans? > > THE PRESIDENT: Well, I’m really proud of my position. I was the first guy to come out for gay marriage. Remember that little problem with the Obama administration? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/530 "2024-07-31T17:24:52Z")
Nate Silver just released his first model with Harris. He gives Harris a 38% chance of winning the Electoral College and a 53% chance of winning the popular vote. Biden was at a 27% chance in the final model before dropping out. > **[Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump: Nate Silver issues polling update](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-vs-donald-trump-nate-silver-election-forecast-1932580)** > > While Kamala Harris leads in popular vote by 7%, Nate Silver's forecast predicts 61.3% probability of win for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/531 "2024-07-31T18:39:29Z")
> [@Max\_S](#): > > Why then did he see fit to throw shade at Obama today? This sounds like a man who is positively concerned with distinguishing his legacy from Obama’s. Or just a guy salty at having been pressured to pull out of the race, First in 2016, purportedly by members of Obama’s team before Biden had decided. Now more recently, purportedly double-teamed by Pelosi and Obama. There is also some family history - Hunter’s ex, Kathleen Buhle, was/is Michelle Obama’s bestie. Supposedly there is some respect and affection, but also some bitterness and tension between the two. Not surprising - we’re talking two hyper-competitive and hyper-ambitious men who have been political rivals at times. Remember Biden was running for the presidential nomination in 2008 against Hillary Clinton and Obama as well (for a solid year - he dropped out after Iowa and endorsed Obama). I dunno if he feels over-shadowed, he may. But I suspect it is more likely he just feels competitive. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2024, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/532 "2024-07-31T18:42:55Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > we’re talking two hyper-competitive and hyper-ambitious men who have been political rivals at times. I think that’s it. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/533 "2024-08-01T13:35:01Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Nate Silver just released his first model with Harris. > > He gives Harris a 38% chance of winning the Electoral College and a 53% chance of winning the popular vote. > > Biden was at a 27% chance in the final model before dropping out. He posted this on X so I can’t link but after a lot more polls came out, Harris is now at 42.5% on Nate’s model. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/534 "2024-08-01T15:53:12Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > He posted this on X so I can’t link but after a lot more polls came out, Harris is now at 42.5% on Nate’s model. For EC or popular vote? ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/535 "2024-08-01T16:01:56Z")
EC. She’s at like 57% for popular. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/536 "2024-08-01T16:11:41Z")
Yes, you heard right – currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. Other scenarios are very possible, but (as Silver mentions in a recent newsletter posting), the EC split is more likely this year than four years ago (when it almost happened), and even than eight years ago (when it did happen). Also, FYI: 538’s model will be released soon (I’m sure Elliot Morris has been chugging espressos in recent days) – and when it does, we’ll find out here: [Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/) ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/537 "2024-08-01T19:58:52Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Yes, you heard right – currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. I don’t quite get this, for what I would consider to be reasonable values of _likely_. It seems to me that if Trump wins the popular vote, the chance of Harris coming out on top of the electoral tally is minimal - certainly less than 1%, because the two chances are going to be highly correlated. On the other hand, a Harris popular vote win doesn’t have the same degree of correlation to a Harris electoral win - but it’s pretty far up there. It shouldn’t be more than about a 15% chance that we would have a popular/electoral vote split, which is less than your chance to roll a 1 on a six sided die, which I wouldn’t call likely. What am I missing here? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/538 "2024-08-01T20:45:15Z")
> [@SunUp](#): > > It shouldn’t be more than about a 15% chance that we would have a popular/electoral vote split, which is less than your chance to roll a 1 on a six sided die, which I wouldn’t call likely. > > What am I missing here? I think you’re missing the peculiarities of the system. The popular vote for Harris is concentrated in New York, California, and a few other very high-population states. The vote for Trump is spread out over a lot of states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Montana, where like half a dozen people live, but they get a minimum of three electoral college votes. The contest is going to be very close, and if it’s too close, the dumb system we’re in favors Trump. I think that’s a lot more than 15% unfortunately. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/539 "2024-08-01T20:49:03Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > The popular vote for Harris is concentrated in New York, California, and a few other very high-population states. The vote for Trump is spread out over a lot of states like Wyoming, South Dakota, and Montana, where like half a dozen people live, but they get a minimum of three electoral college votes. Texas and Florida also go GOP, the 2nd and 3rd most populous states. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/540 "2024-08-01T20:49:45Z")
Texas is a counterweight, sure. But although Florida is solid Republican, their percentage is not overwhelmingly so, so they don’t skew things as much as New York and California do. Edit: I should’ve checked the results first. Trump won Florida by three points, and Texas by six points. Biden won New York by 23 points, and California by 29 points. Cite: > **[2020 United States presidential election](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)** > > Donald Trump > Republican > Joe Biden > Democratic > The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.\[a\] The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala Harris defeated the incumbent Republican president, Donald Trump, and vice president, Mike Pence. The election took place against the backdrop of the global COVID-19 pandemic and related recession. The election ... Like I said, the blue vote is concentrated. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/541 "2024-08-01T20:55:50Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Texas is a counterweight, sure. But although Florida is solid Republican, their percentage is not overwhelmingly so, so they don’t skew things as much as New York and California do. True, both of those states are slightly purple, whilst CA and NY are solidly blue. In fact it looks like this year Florida may be more purple than the GOP would want. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [August 1, 2024, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540/542 "2024-08-01T22:10:04Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Yes, you heard right – currently, Nate Silver’s model states we are _likely_ to suffer yet another electoral/popular split that favors the Republican – the third time in 25 years. The chance of this happening is only 14% according to his model, which is certainly high enough to be terrifying, but it’s not “likely” to happen. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540.md?page=26) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-biden-dropping-out-of-race/1004540.md?page=28)