# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/221 "2023-11-01T10:58:17Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > Are left wing anti-Israel voters going to write in Ilhan Omar and increase the chances of a Republican president in a tight election? I don’t know if they’d call themselves “anti-Israel”. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/222 "2023-11-01T13:02:45Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This makes little sense to me. Are left wing anti-Israel voters going to write in Ilhan Omar and increase the chances of a Republican president in a tight election? It’s the swing voters that matter, and many of them might prefer a _tougher_ stance against terrorism. It doesn’t make sense but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/223 "2023-11-01T13:12:19Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Is anyone concerned that Biden will lose a good amount of votes over his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict? No, I’m not. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/224 "2023-11-01T13:20:26Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > This makes little sense to me. Are left wing anti-Israel voters going to write in Ilhan Omar and increase the chances of a Republican president in a tight election? It’s the swing voters that matter, and many of them might prefer a _tougher_ stance against terrorism. Presumably the concern is that some liberal voters may sit out the election. But the number of liberal Democrats who would sit out the election in protest of Biden’s handling of Gaza is miniscule. And even that number will vanish when Biden’s campaign sufficiently terrifies them with the prospect of a Trump return to office. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/225 "2023-11-01T16:14:43Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > But the number of liberal Democrats who would sit out the election in protest of Biden’s handling of Gaza is miniscule Especially after what happened in 2016. They are more motivated by who they are voting _against_ than who they are voting _for_. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/226 "2023-11-01T17:37:36Z")
Now I feel ignored. ☹ > [@flurb](#): > > Presumably the concern is that some liberal voters may sit out the election. But the number of liberal Democrats who would sit out the election in protest of Biden’s handling of Gaza is miniscule. _Democrats_ won’t. But people on the left who don’t consider themselves Dems might, since they’re more likely to think that Biden is endorsing genocide or that there’s no difference between the parties (ie the link in my post of 10/26). I’m not sure those people have the numbers to make a difference, but they _could_. (Speaking of that link, there’s a claim there that Biden has lost the Muslim/Arab vote. Has there been any polling of those demographics in particular that would support or take down that opinion?) ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/227 "2023-11-01T17:52:07Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > there’s a claim there that Biden has lost the Muslim/Arab vote That seems equally implausible. Do they reallly think that MAGA Republicans in power are going to better represent their interests? I guess MAGAs are blocking aid to Israel, but only because they are blocking all government activity. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/228 "2023-11-01T17:58:54Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > _Democrats_ won’t. But people on the left who don’t consider themselves Dems might, since they’re more likely to think that Biden is endorsing genocide or that there’s no difference between the parties (ie the link in my post of 10/26) It may be just coincidence, but I’ve noticed that the “Biden is endorsing genocide” narrative spread around social media right after Biden called out Russia for committing genocide in Ukraine. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/229 "2023-11-01T18:04:53Z")
Very good question. But the “both sides are the same” folks don’t seem to acknowledge it, or care if they do, as far as I can tell. I think they’re looking for the kind of basic and fundamental change that a lack of would signal “basically nothing changing.” Don’t quote me on that, though. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/230 "2023-11-01T18:05:41Z")
Erased-I’m tired and it’s been a long day thus far. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/231 "2023-11-01T20:01:31Z")
I can’t see it shifting any significant number of American voters by Nov. 2024 unless the situation deteriorates even more than its current terrible state, _and_ Biden can be reasonably argued to have made things worse. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/232 "2023-11-01T20:26:20Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Is anyone concerned that Biden will lose a good amount of votes over his stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict? Is anyone concerned that Trump will lose a good amount of general election votes because voters sympathetic to Israel are seeing an administration more sensitive to Israel’s position than they might have expected? I’ve posted before that the unusually static Biden-Trump polling averages mean voters have made up their minds. But another possibility is that when a group of voters shifts one way, other voters compensate. That could be happening here. It is hard for me to see a change in polling around October 7 more than the normal minimal up and down: [Biden-Trump polls](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html#polls) ---
**Author:** ![zimaane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/a3d4f5/32.png) [@zimaane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zimaane)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2023, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/233 "2023-11-01T21:56:54Z")
That’s almost certainly true, at least as the national level. One worrisome thing is that there are a lot of Arab and Muslim voters in swing states Michigan and Minnesota. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/234 "2023-11-02T14:44:29Z")
> [@zimaane](#): > > in swing states I’m not particularly worried about how this will play out but _this_ is the necessary analysis: how does it play in the few states that will decide the election? Overall doesn’t really matter much. There is the impact on turnout of various groups (or going to third party be it West or Kennedy). And there is the impact on real swing voters. Even Fox has praised Biden’s handling of this. It undercuts the narratives against him a bit. Yes a few Arab Americans who might have voted Biden may stay home or even swing. A few progressives may either stay home or go third party. But I suspect even in MI Biden’s performance will win over more swing voters than it loses. And I suspect it softens turnout against him as well. Israel is a weird “culture war” item this time. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2023, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/235 "2023-11-02T16:31:14Z")
Maybe this will help: > **[Biden unveils national strategy to fight Islamophobia day after poll shows...](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-unveils-national-strategy-fight-islamophobia-day-after-polls-arab-american-support-tanking)** > > The White House announced it's plan to establish a national strategy to counter Islamophobia one day after a poll showed President Biden losing support from Arab-Americans. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2023, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/236 "2023-11-03T01:24:46Z")
Is use of this particular cite meant to imply something about Biden’s motives? I’m not even inclined to give Fox the benefit of the doubt on the “polls” they talk about. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [November 3, 2023, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/237 "2023-11-03T04:57:17Z")
No, it was just a cite I found that was about the creation of the strategy that I’d heard about on the news. I just wanted to show that the administration is aware of the issue and trying to deal with it. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2023, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/238 "2023-11-04T01:52:52Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > (Speaking of that link, there’s a claim there that Biden has lost the Muslim/Arab vote. Has there been any polling of those demographics in particular that would support or take down that opinion?) Good question. The most significant cluster is in Michigan — a critical swing state. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/239 "2023-11-05T13:11:56Z")
“In [a new set of New York Times/Siena College polls](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/11/05/us/elections/times-siena-battlegrounds-registered-voters.html), Mr. Trump [leads](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll.html) Mr. Biden in five of the six battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency, as widespread discontent with the state of the country and growing doubts about his ability to perform his job as president threaten to unravel the diverse coalition that elected him in 2020. Overall, Mr. Trump leads by 48 percent to 44 percent among registered voters across the six states, including leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — most likely more than enough to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Mr. Biden led in the sixth state, Wisconsin.“ ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2023, 1:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/240 "2023-11-05T13:12:36Z")
For those of you keeping track, we are exactly 1 year away from the election (by date). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=13)