# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/752 "2024-02-15T03:43:42Z")
To be fair, all reputable pollsters call cell phones too nowadays, routinely. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/753 "2024-02-15T03:52:08Z")
I don’t know many people my age who answer cold calls on their cell phones either - about 90% of my call log is robocalls and spam. My generation tend to leave our phones on silent and if it’s someone we want to talk to they’ll leave a voicemail. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/754 "2024-02-15T04:10:00Z")
Oh absolutely, I’ve read several articles about how pollsters are having a real hard time because few people pick up nowadays. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/755 "2024-02-15T04:35:51Z")
I think if you did a poll of people who answer phone polls (setting aside the inherent bias in such an attempt) you’d find it skews towards older, financially secure white people - Trump’s base, in other words. People my age know that if we don’t recognize the name on the caller ID, the caller probably just wants our money. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/756 "2024-02-15T04:39:47Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > …older, financially secure white people… I’m one of those (but rabidly anti-trump). I don’t have a landline and don’t answer calls on my cell from unknown numbers. Polling needs to catch up with the times. But I don’t know how it can. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/757 "2024-02-15T05:55:55Z")
What pollsters try to do, in that case, is weigh more heavily the young urban voters they do happen to catch. It’s all very uncertain. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/758 "2024-02-15T10:01:43Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > I think if you did a poll of people who answer phone polls (setting aside the inherent bias in such an attempt) you’d find it skews towards older, financially secure white people - Trump’s base, in other words. I’ve answered my cell a couple of times for polls. I made it pretty clear I wasn’t a Trump supporter. My biggest concern as expressed to them was someone making sure that elections stayed free and people weren’t disenfranchised by gerrymandering and partisans declaring votes didn’t count. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/759 "2024-02-15T11:26:57Z")
Polls this early have literally zero predictive power. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 12:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/760 "2024-02-15T12:15:12Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > A debate would dispel rumors of his failing mind, and refusal to debate, like his refusal to take a cognitive test, looks suspicious and will only make things worse. There’s no evidence Biden is unwilling to debate Trump. In 2020, it was Trump who refused the 2nd debate, not Biden: [https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/second-presidential-debate-virtual/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/second-presidential-debate-virtual/index.html) > [@](#): > > 86% of Americans think Joe Biden is too mentally compromised to be president for four more years. Factually false. You shouldn’t spread factually false information like this. If you’re quoting a poll, please cite and quote the exact language. This is so wildly different than the actual polling language that it’s hard to not suspect bias in your description. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/761 "2024-02-15T13:05:38Z")
> [@suranyi](#): > > What pollsters try to do, in that case, is weigh more heavily the young urban voters they do happen to catch. It’s all very uncertain. Is that really true? Seems like a bad practice, statistically speaking. You want to have a _representative_ sample, so more heavily weighting people who are known to be unrepresentative of their demographic (young urban people who answer phone calls from random numbers?!) seems to not only defeat the purpose but work against it. I would think any statistician worth their salt would know that. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/762 "2024-02-15T17:14:46Z")
The idea is that young urban people are representative of other young urban people, whether they answer the phone or not. Here’s an article from a professional polling organization that discusses this: [https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx](https://www-archive.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Weighting.aspx) ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/763 "2024-02-15T17:26:42Z")
I get that, but it’s not a compelling argument. I do get the dilemma, though. If the choices for a pollster are “don’t poll” or “poll but add weights to overcome shortcomings”, they naturally are heavily incentivized to still poll and try to set the weights to make up for shortcomings as accurately as possible. But ‘as accurately as possible’ may not be very good at all. ---
**Author:** ![suranyi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e36b37/32.png) [@suranyi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/suranyi)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/764 "2024-02-15T17:28:33Z")
Indeed, it’s a big problem for pollsters now. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/765 "2024-02-15T18:07:12Z")
We could at least compare to other recent elections in which Democrats have done well. The recent special election to replace George Santos. The off year Virginia elections last November. Even as far back as the 2022 mid-terms. Were polls off in all those races where Democrats did well, or is Joe Biden polling behind his fellow Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/766 "2024-02-15T18:30:24Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > Even as far back as the 2022 mid-terms. Were polls off in all those races where Democrats did well, or is Joe Biden polling behind his fellow Democrats. Looking back at the polling before the 2022 US Senate election in Georgia is interesting. **[Republican Herschel Walker led in the polls over incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock](https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/georgia-2022-poll-herschel-walker-leads-senator-warnock-49-to-45)** consistently throughout spring and early summer 2022. **[Warnock pulled ahead in July](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/herschel-walker-polls/)** (a few months before Walker’s abortion revelations) and remained ahead in the polls until Election Day. On Election Day in November 2022, Warnock was ahead of Walker by 0.95% but did not have over 50% of the vote. Therefore, both candidates advanced to a runoff in December, which Warnock won by 2.80% (**[link to 2022 Senate election results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia)**). So there was a period of time, several months ahead of the Senate election where going by the polling, Walker looked to be in a good position over Warnock. As the election drew closer, Warnock started polling considerably better and Walker fell off. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/767 "2024-02-15T19:18:46Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > If a doctor examines Biden’s mental state and declares it fit, that’s good enough for me. The President of the United States gets pretty good health coverage. They make a point of his taking a physical every year, and I can only imagine how much closer they’re watching the oldest President they’ve ever had. If none of those doctors have seen fit to order a cognitive test, that’s a pretty good judgement on his mental state. They do think he’s fit, otherwise they’d have done something about it. You know, like they did with Mr. PersonWomanManTVCamera. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/768 "2024-02-15T19:31:09Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > You know, like they did with Mr. PersonWomanManTVCamera. Yeah, given what we know with certainty about his mental state what the fuck would a cognitive test that’s that easy to pass show about Biden? ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/769 "2024-02-15T19:32:52Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > a cognitive test that’s that easy to pass And you just know, if he did take it and pass, they’d all start talking about how easy this test is, and that it doesn’t prove anything. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/770 "2024-02-15T19:38:22Z")
‘Biden said Hat Clock Rain Fish Bicycle! Can you believe that? What other evidence do you need that he’s senile? Everyone knows the correct answers are Person Woman Man TV Camera!’ ~ DJT ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2024, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/771 "2024-02-15T19:55:32Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I still think the plan is to get Joe through the primaries, then have him announce a health issue and resign before or at the convention. That would ensure a trump victory. So nope. > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > 59% of Americans also think Trump is too old. And 70% don’t want either candidate. Well, since trump is just about as old as Biden, this just means GOP and Kremlin propaganda is working. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=39)