# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2024, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/812 "2024-02-19T18:04:42Z")
That Lincoln, such a RINO! Always bowing to (future) Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2024, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/813 "2024-02-19T18:15:53Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Biden’s great-great-grandfather was pardoned by Abraham Lincoln for stabbing a man with his pocketknife during a brawl. Biden Crime Family: Civil War Edition. This family has been criminal for centuries!!! ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 19, 2024, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/814 "2024-02-19T23:37:33Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Biden’s great-great-grandfather was pardoned by Abraham Lincoln for stabbing a man with his pocketknife during a brawl. What a load of malarkey! ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2024, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/815 "2024-02-20T04:07:14Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Near story! I remember reading, maybe in Team of Rivals, that Lincoln would look for any excuse he could find to pardon soldiers during the Civil War. It’s true. Some of his generals complained that his frequent leniency undercut military discipline. He would pardon or issue commutations to most soldiers sentenced to death, for instance, except in cases of rape or aggravated murder. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/816 "2024-02-21T16:30:33Z")
I’d just like to say that it seems to me that the more people “vote shame” others, the less likely they’re going to vote for who you want them to, unfortunately. I’m not saying it’s justified, I’m saying I see it happen a lot. This whole idea that we can’t be negative of Biden, people see through that. They almost expect it. It’s having the opposite effect than was desired, at least from my anecdotal experiences. Voting in-it-self, is not hard. Deciding who to vote for is a different story, and a lot of people have political fatigue. Not everyone is in love with 'No Malarky, Joe", and the more we try to force him down people’s throats, the more they’re going to look elsewhere. Am I the only one who’s thinking this? If you disagree, I’d love to know why. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/817 "2024-02-21T16:51:00Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Not everyone is in love with 'No Malarky, Joe", and the more we try to force him down people’s throats, the more they’re going to look elsewhere. Who is forcing Biden down anyone’s throats? He’s going to be the Dem nominee, even if he’s not your or my particular favorite. If you don’t want to see Trump back in the White House, and you give a shit about democracy, a vote for Biden is really your only option. Does that mean you can’t criticize him? Of course not. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/818 "2024-02-21T17:01:17Z")
It’s a very familiar story. There’s even a pithy one-liner about it: Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love. Apparently it is entirely realistic and reasonable to expect any eventual nominee to be almost entirely aligned with the political stances of every one of their prospective voters, even if this has yet to ever happen in the history of voting. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/819 "2024-02-21T17:02:14Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > I’d just like to say that it seems to me that the more people “vote shame” others, the less likely they’re going to vote for who you want them to, unfortunately. I’m not saying it’s justified, I’m saying I see it happen a lot. This whole idea that we can’t be negative of Biden, people see through that. They almost expect it. It’s having the opposite effect than was desired, at least from my anecdotal experiences. Are you generally seeing all this online in social media? Or out in meatspsace? Is the opposite effect (a) flipping from voting for Biden to voting for Trump, or (b) flipping from voting for Biden to purposefully declining to vote for anyone? Let’s see what happens when push comes to shove in November. The time to talk about protest votes and about dropping out of the whole election process … the time for all that talk is _now_ when it’s still just talk and it’s safe. There are no repercussions for kvetching in February about the poor candidates for President both parties proffer. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/820 "2024-02-21T17:03:20Z")
When I say force him down our throats, I mean saying that other people should lock down their vote for Biden right now, no questions asked. That doesn’t give us any leverage at all. We’re at the mercy of the guy. I’m not saying you’re wrong, though. I agree, Joe is the only way to go. Wasn’t he originally saying he was running for only 4 years? (Genuinely question). And you CAN criticize him, but to expect people like Jon Stewart to censor himself, people will through it, and it’s in their nature to rebel against that stuff these days. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/821 "2024-02-21T17:10:14Z")
I see it online, mostly. I quite a few acquaintances irl voting for RFK, (for some reason), but I don’t think they would have voted for Biden anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/822 "2024-02-21T17:28:41Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > When I say force him down our throats, I mean saying that other people should lock down their vote for Biden right now, no questions asked. That doesn’t give us any leverage at all. We’re at the mercy of the guy. OK, I see. If were to encounter a truly undecided voter, I suppose saying something like “If you don’t vote for Biden you’re a moron” wouldn’t be very helpful (even though it’s what I actually think). What I should say is more like, “Hey, it’s only February. You still have months to decide. I hope you’ll try to get news from sources across the political spectrum, and base your decision on what Biden is actually doing as President instead of what others tell you to think.” ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/823 "2024-02-21T17:38:35Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Wasn’t he originally saying he was running for only 4 years? (Genuinely question). IIRC that was one of the questions that he refused to answer. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/824 "2024-02-21T18:40:20Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > Wasn’t he originally saying he was running for only 4 years? (Genuinely question). He hinted he might, but never committed to the idea. A few months ago at a Boston fundraiser he reportedly suggested that if Trump wasn’t the one running he might not be either. Both seem like plausibly real opinions to me (as opposed to just political double-speak). Biden, like all presidential candidates, is ambitious and at least somewhat egotistic. You kind of have to be to want that job and believe you can do it the best. But he also has shown some reluctance to run before, as with his refusal to participate in 2016 after the death of his son in 2015. I suspect he is thoughtful enough to be torn about the pros and cons. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/825 "2024-02-21T19:08:42Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > He hinted he might, but never committed to the idea. A few months ago at a Boston fundraiser he reportedly suggested that if Trump wasn’t the one running he might not be either. > > Both seem like plausibly real opinions to me (as opposed to just political double-speak). If the GOP had somewhat come back to their senses after 2020, and moved on from Trump, I could seen Biden deciding that “normal” politics were back, and that he should make room for some of the younger Democrats to take over, with the assumption that losing a normal election would not be a disaster, as it used to be. But with Trump still in it, and the GOP doubling down on all his bullshit, you can’t take any unnecessary risk that they might win again. The incumbent advantage is real, and usually significant, and you don’t want to toss out such an advantage when the results really, really matter. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 21, 2024, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/826 "2024-02-21T21:42:11Z")
Exactly. All the people talking about a D alternative to Biden are trump-favoring dupes whether or not they’ve recognize they’ve been conned. Or they’re R shills in D clothing. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2024, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/827 "2024-02-22T05:17:33Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > The incumbent advantage is real, and usually significant, and you don’t want to toss out such an advantage when the results really, really matter. Poll after poll shows that an incumbency advantage doesn’t exist this time. Most voters do not want a rematch. But that is what we are getting because once men get power, they almost always want to keep it. While I believe Biden is much better at doing the POTUS job, the likely presidential nominees are alike in running despite being weak candidates. I do see some semi-good news for Biden this month. The horse race polling average has stayed steady since the Robert Hur report came out. I attribute this to swing voters already knowing that the candidates are unusually old. Being told that Biden is (or is not) chronologically old, or acting old, doesn’t change voter intentions. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2024, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/828 "2024-02-22T11:57:01Z")
The polls don’t seem to reflect elections well. Other than the fact that they do, if you only count popular vote. But I came to think of a new factor: what if the fact that a person chooses to answer to a poll only records the angriest voters? That creates a systematic error. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2024, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/829 "2024-02-22T15:51:35Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > The polls don’t seem to reflect elections well. There are lots of links I could provide showing polling accuracy hasn’t declined in recent decades. And early Trump-Biden polling four years ago was indicative of what would happen on Election Day. Then there is the question of alternatives. I guess the best one is betting odds, but the odds swing around more than with polling, and are often implausible. Discussing on the basis of neither rolling polling averages nor betting odds is biased by wishful thinking (for those of an optimistic temperament) or panic (for those who tend to pessimism). > [@TeroSunbear](#): > > Other than the fact that they do, if you only count popular vote. The swing state polls are historically less accurate, and the identity of the swing states can change. So I don’t pay too much attention to those. For what it is worth, Biden seems, in recent months, to be doing worse there than with the popular vote adjusted by the historical GOP electoral college advantage. Biden does have the advantage of Trump’s legal risk. That cannot be quantified, so discussion will be biased by poster personality. I am a pro-Biden pessimist, so I doubt the courts will save Joe. But it is a great big known unknown. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2024, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/830 "2024-02-22T17:11:51Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The swing state polls are historically less accurate, and the identity of the swing states can change. So I don’t pay too much attention to those. Even though swing states are what have decided the otherwise close elections for the last 25 years? ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2024, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/831 "2024-02-22T18:49:09Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > But I came to think of a new factor: what if the fact that a person chooses to answer to a poll only records the angriest voters? That creates a systematic error. You always need to be wary of the vocal minority. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=42)