# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 51
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1012 "2024-03-07T17:37:51Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest that maybe another candidate might have a better chance of beating Trump No, it doesn’t . . . now tell us who this candidate is. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1013 "2024-03-07T17:39:11Z")
> [@Dr.Drake](#): > > Biden is doing GREAT for his age. It’s really quite amazing to be not only president, but a good one, in one’s early 80s. Absolutely, the concerns about his age are largely a result of the media astroturfing concerns about his age, starting with far-right outlets inventing it whole cloth until enough Americans believed it to influence polling by more reputable ones. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1014 "2024-03-07T17:43:36Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Putting those facts together, it doesn’t seem **outlandish** to suggest that maybe another candidate might have a better chance of beating Trump, or that Biden might be persuaded to act in the best interests of his country and party. My bold. Yeah, it **is** outlandish to suggest that. > [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > …tell us who this candidate is. This. Go ahead. Speak up. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1015 "2024-03-07T17:45:51Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > … it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest that maybe another candidate might have a better chance of beating Trump … I can’t put pen to paper and make a logical case … but nevertheless, yes, it does seem outlandish that another Democratic candidate would have a better chance to beat Trump. Here’s something: Say the Democratic Party switched Biden for another contender. They rid themselves of the “too old” issue … but what other issues do they then take on with the new candidate? There’s no conceivable unassailable Democratic candidate who brings progressives, independents, and conservative never-Trumpers into the fold with a snap of the finger. Especially in a compressed time frame. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1016 "2024-03-07T17:48:47Z")
Well, there’s the rub. Obviously other candidates haven’t been extensively polled against Trump, so we don’t have a lot of data. I feel like realistically, we’d have to go with Harris. Because the unwritten rule is that the Veep is next in line, and trying to change the unwritten rules right when the Veep happens to be a Black woman would be way too divisive. And I get that she’s not a perfect candidate, either. But picking anyone else sends the message “We’re not _really_ concerned about Biden’s capacity, we’re just panicking and dumping an incumbent President because the polls look bad in February”. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1017 "2024-03-07T17:50:21Z")
Every time around, it’s always something. There’s always _some_ reason why the candidate the Democrats have put forward is the wrong one. “If only they’d chosen someone else, they’d win more handily”, we are eternally told. It doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate. We will always be told that that person is the worst possible choice, by _deeply concerned_ people. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1018 "2024-03-07T17:51:17Z")
Yes, picking anyone else, at this point, does send the message “We’re panicking and dumping an incumbent President because the polls look bad in February”. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1019 "2024-03-07T17:53:20Z")
replied to wrong post ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1020 "2024-03-07T17:54:17Z")
Yes, remember those silly “progressives” who tried to tell us Hillary was a bad candidate in 2016, just because the polls said so? Boy, did they end up looking foolish! ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1021 "2024-03-07T17:54:25Z")
And yet she would have won if it were not for Comey sandbagging her right before the election. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1022 "2024-03-07T18:00:51Z")
> [@bordelond](#): > > Here’s something: Say the Democratic Party switched Biden for another contender. They rid themselves of the “too old” issue … but what other issues do they then take on with the new candidate? There’s no conceivable unassailable Democratic candidate who brings progressives, independents, and conservative never-Trumpers into the fold with a snap of the finger. Especially in a compressed time frame. We don’t have an “unassailable” candidate now. Biden’s approval rating is under forty. He is trailing Trump in the polls. If we can’t do better than that, we might be fucked, but I find it very hard to believe that we really can’t. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1023 "2024-03-07T18:01:19Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Yes, remember those silly “progressives” who tried to tell us **Hillary was a bad candidate in 2016, just because the polls said so**? Scroll down to the polls conducted in February and March 2016. Double-check what those polls were saying at that time. > **[Nationwide opinion polling for the 2016 United States presidential election | Polls conducted in 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Polls_conducted_in_2016)** > > BBC News discussed whether polling should be abandoned due to its perceived failure. Forbes magazine contributor astrophysicist Ethan Siegel performed a scientific analysis and raised whether the statistical population sampled for the polling was inaccurate, and cited the cautionary adage "Garbage in, garbage out". He concluded there may have been sampling bias on the part of the pollsters. Siegel compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey De A partic... ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1024 "2024-03-07T18:06:06Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Absolutely, the concerns about his age are largely a result of the media astroturfing concerns about his age, starting with far-right outlets inventing it whole cloth until enough Americans believed it to influence polling by more reputable ones. Well, no. Concerns about his age are reasonable, and are very foolish to ignore. Projecting reasonable concerns about the future onto an assessment of the present is what the right wing are doing. It would be ineffective, except that concerns about the future are quite reasonable. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1025 "2024-03-07T18:06:17Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > We don’t have an “unassailable” candidate now. Biden’s approval rating is under forty. **He is trailing Trump in the polls.** If we can’t do better than that, we might be fucked, but I find it very hard to believe that we really can’t. Regarding the bolded: Generally within margin of error and with major confounders in the polling (IMHO, admittedly). One big confounder to date, however, that I think is hard to deny has been the reluctance for some poll respondents to come to grips with Biden’s 2024 candidacy. There’s been kind of an “_As I wish things were, rather than how things actually are_” effect that’s led some Democratic respondents to mark “Undecided” or “Other” instead of “Biden”. That particular effect should fade from the polls before too long. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1026 "2024-03-07T18:07:33Z")
Reminds me of the saying: “The Republican Party is held hostage by its base, while the Democratic Party holds its base hostage.” By this point I’m convinced Biden would still be the DNC nominee even if he were 90 and had a stroke. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1027 "2024-03-07T18:08:02Z")
Yes, they showed Hillary winning. As you may recall, she was in fact leading in the polls right up until Election Day, and still _almost_ won despite underperfoming her polling. But all you’ve shown are polls of Clinton vs Trump, ignoring the relevant point that polls consistently showed Bernie Sanders beating Trump _by a wider margin_. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1028 "2024-03-07T18:10:07Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > By this point I’m convinced Biden would still be the DNC nominee even if he were 90 and had a stroke. Yes, because no one else is seeking the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1029 "2024-03-07T18:11:18Z")
Most Democrats like Biden. That’s just a fact, and the state primaries have reinforced this fact again and again. It shouldn’t be a surprise that a Democratic president who most Democrats think has been very good and accomplished a lot of good things is renominated to run again, even if he’s (gasp!) got at least one flaw and isn’t an absolutely perfect candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1030 "2024-03-07T18:17:02Z")
Moderating: > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Yes, remember those silly “progressives” who tried to tell us Hillary was a bad candidate in 2016, just because the polls said so? Boy, did they end up looking foolish! > [@Gyrate](#): > > And yet she would have won if it were not for Comey sandbagging her right before the election. > [@bordelond](#): > > Scroll down to the polls conducted in February and March 2016. Double-check what those polls were saying at that time. > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > Yes, they showed Hillary winning. As you may recall, she was in fact leading in the polls right up until Election Day, and still _almost_ won despite underperfoming her polling. Let us please stop flogging 2016 in this thread. It is a hijack. Discuss 2024 here, please. Fair warning: I will not issue another mod note. If 2016 is mentioned again in this thread, there will be a warning for it. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [March 7, 2024, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1031 "2024-03-07T18:17:30Z")
Yeah, it’s certainly not a hopeless situation. With those polling numbers, Biden would be an underdog if the election were held today, but not much worse off than Trump was in 2016. But the numbers **are** worse for him than they were at this point in 2020, or for Hillary in 2016, or for Obama in either of his elections. So it concerns me that the DNC doesn’t seem to feel it needs a response to that beyond “Well, the polls are probably wrong”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=50) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=52)