# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 64
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2024, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1272 "2024-04-29T22:04:04Z")
> [@](#): > > A [new series of polls](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-trump-poll-michigan-pennyslvania-wisconsin/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=412687759) released by CBS News have very good news for Joe Biden and the Democrats One poll is never very good news. I don’t usually look at state-level polling because it is less accurate than national polling, but in deference to contrary opinions, I just did an analysis of where the race stands in Michigan and Pennsylvania. This uses official returns I found at [cnn.com](http://cnn.com), and the [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) averages of “presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency.” Michigan Biden won the state of Michigan by just [2.8 percent](https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/michigan/president) in the 2020 popular vote, despite being up by 7.9 percent in the final (November 2) pre-election [538 Michigan polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/michigan/). 538 had Biden ahead by 6.8 percent, in Michigan, on April 29,2020. 538 has Trump ahead by 2.1 percent, in Michigan, on April 29, 2024. So Biden is 8.9 percent behind where he was at this point four years ago. And, if skews stay the same, Biden needs to make up 6.1 percent in Michigan to tie. Pennsylvania Biden won my commonwealth of Pennsylvania by just [1.2 percent](https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/pennsylvania/president) in the 2020 popular vote, despite being up by 4.7 percent in the final (November 2) pre-election [538 Pennsylvania polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/pennsylvania/). 538 had Biden ahead by 5.6 percent, in Pennsylvania, on April 29, 2020. 538 has Trump ahead by 1.7 percent, in Pennsylvania, on April 29, 2024. So Biden is 7.3 percent behind where he was at this point four years ago. And, if skews stay the same, Biden needs to make up 6.1 percent in Pennsylvania to tie. It’s a coincidence that Biden is, by this method, behind by 6.1 percent in both states. But what isn’t a coincidence is that Biden keeps on running about that much behind four years ago, both nationwide and in these swing states. It bumps a point or two this way or that from time to time, but I still see a static race with Biden behind. Will campaigning push the race outside this narrow range? Pretty unlikely historically, I think. Debates help Biden, but that is already taken into account in my admittedly imperfect method. Do unpredictable events matter? Yes. Would being convicted of a felony push the race outside of this narrow range? Since it never happened before, no one knows, but, more likely than not, we’ll find out. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2024, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1273 "2024-04-29T22:12:26Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > “Were you better off four years ago?” Four years ago, they were stacking bodies in refrigerator trucks, as the President kept coming up with stupid unscientific shit. This illustrates why I look at the horse race numbers, but not so much at what swing voters say. Voting decisions are made in some non-verbal part of the brain. Then words come in to justify them. My virtually data-free opinion is that Biden was perceived in 2020, by low info swing voters, as the one and only prominent Democrat who was somehow a regular guy. Now he is perceived as a Democratic Party politician. Of course, no one is going to say that, because even low info voters know Joe was always a Democratic Party politician. ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2024, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1274 "2024-04-30T17:21:22Z")
the term for the non-verbal part of deciding was heuristics in the hands of tversky and Kahneman. We seem to think in wins and losses but are poor at doing statistics in our head. However, if we have multiple choices we do better. We don’t get the best answer but usually no worse than second best. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2024, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1275 "2024-05-01T04:30:36Z")
> **dude** > > [a-Biden](http://home.avvanta.com/~sydde/Dude-a-Biden.jpeg) ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2024, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1276 "2024-05-01T11:39:45Z")
> **[Cannabis stocks surge as Biden administration moves to reclassify marijuana](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/cannabis-stocks-surge-as-biden-administration-moves-to-reclassify-marijuana.html)** > > Stocks linked to cannabis surged on an otherwise down day for the market. I hope this gives him some good press. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 1, 2024, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1277 "2024-05-01T17:16:51Z")
Not to mention the munchies, bro. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2024, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1278 "2024-05-02T16:36:23Z")
> **[Opinion | Biden Is Not Winning. His Campaign Should Stop Acting Like It Is.](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/01/opinion/biden-trump-election.html)** > > It’s good to have a reality check every few months. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2024, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1279 "2024-05-02T19:18:16Z")
Why should we care what Trump-apologists like Ross Douthat think? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2024, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1280 "2024-05-03T09:14:00Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Will campaigning push the race outside this narrow range? Completely agree but with the narrow range not being that polling but the same narrow range last time was: pretty much split even with the polls moving up and down a few points up and down but bottom line final results dependent on who comes out to vote against whom on Election Day (and in early voting). ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2024, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1281 "2024-05-07T19:40:03Z")
Republican Geoff Duncan, the former Lieutenant Governor of Georgia, has thrown his hat in the ring for Biden. This endorsement may not move the needle a lot nationally, but Duncan did publish an op-ed in the state’s largest newspaper, the _Atlanta Journal-Constitution_ (**[link is free to view](https://www.ajc.com/opinion/geoff-duncan-why-im-voting-for-biden-and-other-republicans-should-too/LFLE5YWCBBA6VDGJAJKMNPCDKQ/)**). If that piece can get Biden an extra few thousand Georgia votes, it will have helped a ton. **[Commentary below from liberal political writer Jay Kuo](https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/republicans-for-biden)**: > It’s a rare thing for a former Republican official to publicly declare for a Democrat. Duncan joins a fairly small group so far, which includes former Trump spokeswoman Sarah Matthews and former White House lawyer Ty Cobb. > > The usual approach for many “Never Trumpers” has been to denounce the ex-president, but then still say something about how they could still never vote for Biden and would probably be voting third party or writing in a name, such as Nikki Haley. > > But Duncan understands that this election is not just about not supporting Trump. It’s also actively about supporting our democracy. “This November, I am voting for a decent person I disagree with on policy over a criminal defendant without a moral compass,” Duncan wrote. > > For Duncan, voting for Biden is a “binary choice” in an election and a practical necessity to save our country from Trump. He cited polls showing that Trump is leading nationally (he actually isn’t, even according to the polling averages) and in the battleground states (again, not necessarily). But if these misleading polls can convince Republicans who are frightened of a second Trump term to cast their votes for Biden, then so be it. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2024, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1282 "2024-05-07T20:53:06Z")
Thanks, but the _AJC_ link requires signing in. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2024, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1283 "2024-05-07T21:15:24Z")
I wonder how I can see it free? I can paste the text of Duncan’s op-ed into a spoiler box, but my assumption is that doing so violates an SDMB ground rule. @Aspenglow , @What_Exit , @puzzlegal ? If pasting the text here is a no-go, Jay Kuo’s piece linked above quotes more than enough of Duncan’s piece to get the gist and then some. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2024, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1284 "2024-05-07T21:17:31Z")
Moderating: > [@bordelond](#): > > If pasting the text here is a no-go, Jay Kuo’s piece linked above quotes more than enough of Duncan’s piece to get the gist and then some. Let’s go with this option. That keeps us away from any fair use issues. Thanks for checking first. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2024, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1285 "2024-05-08T01:59:06Z")
As always, I will happily share [a gift link](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/06/us/politics/geoff-duncan-biden.html?unlocked_article_code=1.qU0.dM9u.cKAm8r89hCcf&smid=url-share) to the article in the NYT about Geoff Duncan’s OpEd. It doesn’t have a lot of the text but I thought it might be helpful. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2024, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1286 "2024-05-08T18:23:25Z")
> > > InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022 Biden up 6 in WI according to latest Quinnipiac poll. Even more interesting, he is up in every age bracket and leads among independents, women, white people (in general) and non-white people. Only didn’t lead in the male category (and among Rs, of course). [![Imgur](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53707854126_6e163320cf_b.jpg "Quinnipiac poll, Biden, may 2024") ](https://www.flickr.com/photos/68782016@N08/53707854126/) ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2024, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1287 "2024-05-09T18:46:51Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Biden up 6 in WI according to latest Quinnipiac poll. **[Hopeful, recent news from Arizona as well](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/good-new-arizona-poll-bidens-successful)**: [![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feafc633d-de51-41c1-aba3-254688c90bea_872x685.png) ](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feafc633d-de51-41c1-aba3-254688c90bea_872x685.png) Per the link: > [A new poll](https://dataorbital.com/az-general-election-poll-democrats-hold-slight-edge/) by a **conservative, highly-rated, conservative** Arizona-based pollster Data Orbital has Biden up 1 and Gallego up 4. It is the first time Biden has led in an Arizona poll since June, 2023. Luv ya, Simon … but let me make sure of something: Are you trying to tell us that Data Orbital is a _conservative_ polling outfit? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2024, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1288 "2024-05-10T12:22:39Z")
Ha! Maybe it’s an astute use of multiple meanings: “conservative” as in “employs tried-and-true polling methodology and statistical analysis,” and also “polling outfit is associated with conservative political ideologies.” ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2024, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1289 "2024-05-10T20:03:50Z")
Fareed Zakaria with a good write-up: > **[Opinion: The presidential election isn’t playing out how I thought it would](https://www.yahoo.com/news/opinion-presidential-election-isn-t-165116397.html)** > > President Biden was poised to run a strong campaign against Donald Trump on returning the US to normalcy, Fareed Zakaria writes. Polling shows that has gone off the rails, as voters seem concerned about his age and approach to the Israel-Hamas war in... ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2024, 8:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1290 "2024-05-10T20:44:07Z")
Here’s a good ad. > ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2024, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1291 "2024-05-10T21:06:05Z")
Interesting that he mentions Biden’s age but not Trump’s. Why do voters perceive Biden’s age as a problem, but not Trump’s: is it because of the roundness of the number 80, or because a thinner (and probably healthier) man shows more signs of age (as in the photos chosen)? Something else? Biden’s age is an issue for me, but I simply can’t see how that works in Trump’s favor unless he’s somehow managed to sell that he’s not in his upper 70s (78 in June). Trump is right around the age Reagan was on the last day of his presidency; the two of them plus Biden have been our only septuagenarian presidents ever (barring the last couple of months of Eisenhower). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=63) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384.md?page=65)