# President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2021, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384 "2021-11-15T14:54:57Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 1\ **Showing post:** 1089
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2024, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1089 "2024-03-14T14:56:58Z")
@PhillyGuy , I wanted to reply to **[something you wrote in the Nikki Haley thread,](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nikki-haley-announces-us-presidential-run-for-2024-not-trump-please/979953/815)** but it was a tangent that Aspenglow shut down. I’ve moved it over here: > [@Nikki Haley announces US presidential run for 2024 (Not Trump please)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nikki-haley-announces-us-presidential-run-for-2024-not-trump-please/979953/815): > > > [@Nikki Haley announces US presidential run for 2024 (Not Trump please)](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/nikki-haley-announces-us-presidential-run-for-2024-not-trump-please/979953/813): > > > > I fear Biden is pretty far behind. > > On some of the Real Clear Politics input polls (the ones that make up the RCP average), hasn’t Biden drawn closer in recent weeks? On two of them, Biden even had a small lead. When I wrote that, it was two out of nine polls Real Clear Politics used to calculate their poll average. I looked again late yesterday, and noticed that **[their average is now calculated from 12 polls](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/2024GeneralElection.html#!)**, three of which have Biden slightly ahead and most of the remaining nine have Trump ahead within the margin of error. I remember how the Real Clear Politics poll average looked about a month ago when you had brought it up, and how the input polls looked at the time. It’s a small effect, to be sure, but it really seems to me that Biden is gradually pulling closer to Trump in the polling. “_Pretty far behind_” is necessarily subjective … I’m just not seeing that degree of lead for Trump right now. EDIT: I’m also noting, looking at Real Clear Politics’ input polls, that Trump’s lead tracks inversely with the number of respondents. His biggest leads in the polls, by percentage, are in the two polls with less than 1,000 respondents. Once the polls get above 1,500 or so, they seem to consistently turn out as statistical dead heats. --- _[View the full topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384)._