# Presidential results prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 22, 2016, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319 "2016-10-22T07:01:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 10:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/21 "2016-10-24T10:38:37Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I don’t think quite so much PV will go to the “others.” Normally I wouldn’t either. But considering Hillary is still not liked/trusted and states where votes don’t really matter (like voting for Trump in California) I’m thinking the others may get a bump. It’s nothing I’d bet on, though. One thing that really jumps out at me is the lack of yard signs around here. Usually by this time of year in a POTUS election the landscaping is flush with them. This year not so much. Are folks ashamed of who they support? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/22 "2016-10-24T14:06:47Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > Hillary 341 > Trump 196 > > ETA: It’ll be called for Hillary at 11:01 Eastern time. That’s the smart money bet but potentially if Hillary should carry Indiana or Georgia or Arizona, she’d be over 270 with the 10:00 poll closings. Of course, should this happen it’s likely that the states in question wouldn’t be called until after 11:00 even though they closed at least an hour earlier. I have her at 269 with the 10:00 closings, even on district in Nebraska could put her over the line. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/23 "2016-10-24T14:30:25Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > I’m going to give up on Georgia flipping but bet on McMullin taking Utah and go with 358 to 174 to 6. > > Popular vote Clinton 52%, Trump 42%, Johnson 4%, McMullin + Stein 2%. > > Sure I’ll take **Wesley** ’s +/-2% on each. Predicting +/-5% though? That’s not really making a bet. That’s close to my bet though I’d take a point away from the majors and give them to Johnson. So Clinton 51, Trump 41, Johnson 6. adaher, don’t see how McMullin could even get close to 1.5%. If every Mormon in the country voted for him that’s about 1.6 but he’s only on the ballot in 12 states with a bunch of others being a write-in. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/24 "2016-10-24T17:31:42Z")
Many voters will come to their senses and see Trump for who he is. HRC 54% Trump 37% Others combined 9% ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2016, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/25 "2016-10-24T17:38:11Z")
Would anyone be all that shocked to hear Il Douche proclaim that the election is hopelessly rigged by illegal alien lizard voters, so don’t vote at all! Of course, if that were to happen, I may not comment upon it for several days, given the difficulty in typing while having giggling fits… ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/26 "2016-10-25T06:07:34Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > One thing that really jumps out at me is the lack of yard signs around here. Usually by this time of year in a POTUS election the landscaping is flush with them. This year not so much. Are folks ashamed of who they support? I think the campaigns are also being stingier with the signs. Both candidates _started_ with 100% name recognition so getting their names out there isn’t really a priority. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/27 "2016-10-25T06:35:20Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > I think the campaigns are also being stingier with the signs. Both candidates _started_ with 100% name recognition so getting their names out there isn’t really a priority. I’m talking about yard signs on private property, which are freely available at campaign headquarters. Usually this area is loaded with them all over the place. This year there are hardly any for either side. I do see signs for congress/senate/state/local races, but very few for POTUS on front yards. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 8:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/28 "2016-10-25T08:38:13Z")
I predict a Hillary landslide: 370+ EV. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 9:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/29 "2016-10-25T09:34:21Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I’m talking about yard signs on private property, which are freely available at campaign headquarters. I know. What I’m saying is that I don’t think they are freely available from the presidential campaigns this year. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/30 "2016-10-25T10:33:32Z")
I am seeing signs that the race might actually be starting to shift a little bit back toward Trump. The question is whether this shift is just a temporary blip indicating that Clinton has reached her peak and thus indicates the inevitable decline from that high point, or is it possible that Trump has one last life left? The nightmare I’ve worried about from the start is that Trump gets the last at bat and hits the walk-off home run. I accept conventional wisdom that it’s really unlikely that Trump wins on election night, but even a close race is bad news for the country, given all the talk of protests. Moreover, keep in mind that in reality, Trump is probably focusing on four states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. If he somehow sweeps all four, he probably wins the race. Despite national polling indicating a healthy Clinton lead, the polling data in these states show a tighter race, and a winnable one for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/31 "2016-10-25T10:58:54Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I am seeing signs that the race might actually be starting to shift a little bit back toward Trump. The question is whether this shift is just a temporary blip indicating that Clinton has reached her peak and thus indicates the inevitable decline from that high point, or is it possible that Trump has one last life left? > > The nightmare I’ve worried about from the start is that Trump gets the last at bat and hits the walk-off home run. I accept conventional wisdom that it’s really unlikely that Trump wins on election night, but even a close race is bad news for the country, given all the talk of protests. > > Moreover, keep in mind that in reality, Trump is probably focusing on four states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. If he somehow sweeps all four, he probably wins the race. Despite national polling indicating a healthy Clinton lead, the polling data in these states show a tighter race, and a winnable one for Trump. Ignore your feelings and go with Nate Silver. Why trust something as unreliable as your feelings when there are experts with great track records to trust? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/32 "2016-10-25T11:10:20Z")
We’re running out of time for there to be a second wind. Remember, many people have already voted. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/33 "2016-10-25T11:15:24Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ignore your feelings and go with Nate Silver. Why trust something as unreliable as your feelings when there are experts with great track records to trust? It’s not a matter of not trusting NAte Silver, it’s that the polls are slightly turning back towards Trump. Probably not nearly enough, which is why Clinton has an 86% chance of winning. But it does seem likely now that the race will be a little closer than polls currently show. Thus my prediction of Clinton +3. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/34 "2016-10-25T11:17:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not a matter of not trusting NAte Silver, it’s that the polls are slightly turning back towards Trump. Probably not nearly enough, which is why Clinton has an 86% chance of winning. But it does seem likely now that the race will be a little closer than polls currently show. Thus my prediction of Clinton +3. This is what I’m saying – not really predicting a Trump victory on election night and haven’t really ever. But Trump could make us all sweat a little, and I don’t think Clinton merely winning is enough – she needs a decisive victory and I’m not 100% convinced that it’s going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/35 "2016-10-25T11:44:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not a matter of not trusting NAte Silver, it’s that the polls are slightly turning back towards Trump. Probably not nearly enough, which is why Clinton has an 86% chance of winning. But it does seem likely now that the race will be a little closer than polls currently show. Thus my prediction of Clinton +3. But they’re not “slightly turning back towards Trump”. 538’s polls-only has been at + or - 2 from 86% for Hillary Clinton for two weeks, and it’s at 86.3% today. The polls have been mostly steady since the 2nd debate, and before they were steady, they were rising for Hillary sharply after the 1st debate. > [@asahi](#): > > This is what I’m saying – not really predicting a Trump victory on election night and haven’t really ever. But Trump could make us all sweat a little, and I don’t think Clinton merely winning is enough – she needs a decisive victory and I’m not 100% convinced that it’s going to happen. I’m not 100% convinced either, and I won’t be until election night. But I’m rather comfortable, and the polls are steady with a very significant Hillary lead, and in this extreme polarization it’s hard to do much better than that. The polls are steady and there’s no reason to be more worried today than 1 or 2 or 3 weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/36 "2016-10-25T12:32:38Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > This is what I’m saying – not really predicting a Trump victory on election night and haven’t really ever. But Trump could make us all sweat a little, and I don’t think Clinton merely winning is enough – she needs a decisive victory and I’m not 100% convinced that it’s going to happen. At the risk of saying something Silver said that was actually wrong, I think Trump has a ceiling, and that ceiling is about 1 point behind Clinton. But that has generally only come when Clinton has had brutal press and Trump has been mostly out of the press. Tell you what should worry Clinton supporters: CNN reports that privately Trump is now expecting defeat and laying the groundwork for it(whatever that means). If Trump really thinks he’s beaten, he might go quiet. And if he goes quiet and the media focuses on the latest Clinton stories(and there are two doozies that are brand new), that could get Trump close enough to make for a dramatic election night. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/37 "2016-10-25T12:33:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > But they’re not “slightly turning back towards Trump”. 538’s polls-only has been at + or - 2 from 86% for Hillary Clinton for two weeks, and it’s at 86.3% today. The polls have been mostly steady since the 2nd debate, and before they were steady, they were rising for Hillary sharply after the 1st debate. > . The odds aren’t changing at this point because her lead is smaller by one point, but Trump is also running out of time. If Trump is 3 points behind next week she’ll have an 85% chance of winning. We saw this in 2012, Romney was down by only two yet Obama was at almost 90% because it was so close to election day and the polls were in rough agreement(Gallup and Rasmussen excepted). Her average lead has dropped from 6.8 to 5.1: > **[2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein |...](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton-vs-johnson-vs-stein)** > > Explore comprehensive poll data from the 2016 General Election, featuring the Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein matchup. Gain valuable insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling But it’s also now only two weeks before the election and early voting has started in most places. Trump would have to get a lot close for 538’s odds to change much. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/38 "2016-10-25T13:14:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The odds aren’t changing at this point because her lead is smaller by one point, but Trump is also running out of time. If Trump is 3 points behind next week she’ll have an 85% chance of winning. We saw this in 2012, Romney was down by only two yet Obama was at almost 90% because it was so close to election day and the polls were in rough agreement(Gallup and Rasmussen excepted). The 538 odds are lower now than in 2012 because of greater uncertainty from undecideds and 3rd party voters. The average lead is significantly larger. > [@](#): > > Her average lead has dropped from 6.8 to 5.1: > > [2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein | RealClearPolling](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html) 538 is better than RCP, in my opinion – according to 538 (polls only), Hillary’s lead is about 6 and has been since the 2nd debate, plus or minus a point. If her lead has shrunk, it’s been by a tiny amount, and there’s no reason to believe that a further tightening is more likely then an expanding lead. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/39 "2016-10-25T13:21:47Z")
538 is definitely better, but we’re talking strictly about polls here and the race is slowly starting to tighten again. If Trump shuts up for the next two weeks it could get a little closer. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/40 "2016-10-25T13:31:56Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > 538 is definitely better, but we’re talking strictly about polls here and the race is slowly starting to tighten again. If Trump shuts up for the next two weeks it could get a little closer. 538 polls-only tells us whether the polls say it’s tightening again, and right now it’s not tightening. RCP just averages polls, which means that outliers in both directions can make it look tighter (or larger) when it’s not. I trust Nate on this. And good luck on Trump shutting up. He’s not constitutionally capable of keeping his mouth shut. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319.md?page=3)