# Presidential results prediction thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 22, 2016, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319 "2016-10-22T07:01:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/41 "2016-10-25T13:36:27Z")
He’s done it for periods of time, or at least not said anything the media took major notice of. That’s usually when he’s gained. Funny that a candidate is so bad that he does best by NOT campaigning or being in the news. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/42 "2016-10-25T13:44:13Z")
I think people are overstating the votes that the third parties will get, as I said in this earlier post. > [@How much will the final aggregated polls miss the actual results?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-will-the-final-aggregated-polls-miss-the-actual-results/768298/21): > > The poll numbers for Clinton and Trump are not quite as variable as the poll numbers \*\*not \*\*for Clinton and Trump. > > Right now, Johnson and Green are averaging about 9% in the polls. They will not get 9% of the actual votes. People want to support third parties in theory, which is what polls are, but when they actually get to the voting booth they vote for a major party. Additionally, about 8% are undecided. (RealClearPolitics four-way average as as now, noon on 10/12.) In October 2012, Obama and Romney were polling at about 92%. They actually gathered about 98%. The missing voters broke around 3 to 1 for Obama. > > Where will those 17% go this year? Johnson and Green will get half of their current numbers, say 4% and 1% to be generous. Of the remaining 12%, another 3 to 1 split makes it 9% for Clinton and 3% for Trump. That adds up to 53% Clinton, 42% Trump. Is a 3 to 1 split too high? Possible, since that was for a sitting President. A more even split makes it 50% Clinton, 45% Trump. I think that’s a bit low since that merely leaves the spread where it is today, and it will clearly be higher. > > I’m going with 52% Clinton, 43% Trump, 4% Johnson, 1% Green. As of now, 10/25, 15% are not Clinton or Trump. That will continue to shrink. Remember that 1% is about 1 million voters. Utah’s total vote is only 1 million. McMuffin will get less than half, probably less than a third, and a smattering elsewhere. He’s rounding error. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/43 "2016-10-25T13:51:04Z")
THere’s no polling in Idaho, but I heard he had a crowd of 2000 there, and they also have a heavy Mormon presence. I can definitely see McMuffin getting 1-2%. 538 projects Johnson at above 5%. Stein is the one who probably will underperform, but that’s all Clinton votes on election day except for the ones who stay home. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/44 "2016-10-25T13:54:55Z")
There’s no way McMullin is getting 2%. No way. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/45 "2016-10-25T14:02:30Z")
McMullin isn’t a third party candidate. He’s a favorite son candidate. Big difference. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/46 "2016-10-25T14:04:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …If Trump shuts up for the next two weeks it could get a little closer. And if pigs fly, the price of umbrellas will go up. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/47 "2016-10-25T14:05:04Z")
I thought a McMuffin was a breakfast sandwich? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/48 "2016-10-25T14:08:53Z")
No, it’s the primary alternative to Donald Trump in some states. Who could be against a McMuffin in the White House? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/49 "2016-10-25T14:11:44Z")
He’s only on the ballot in 12 states. After Utah and Idaho, the next two biggest concentrations of Mormons is Wyoming and Nevada where he isn’t even a write-in candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/50 "2016-10-25T16:06:46Z")
Clinton 50% Trump 43% Johnson 4.9% Stein 1.5% McMullin 0.6% (half of which will be in Utah) Clinton will most all of the Nate silvers Blue tinted states (including Ohio and Iowa), while Trump will win all of the Red tinted states. The exceptions will be that Trump will also win Arizona, and the swing districts in Maine and Nebraska, for a final Clinton EV win of 346 to 192 ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/51 "2016-10-25T16:30:24Z")
I think people are vastly over estimating the third party candidates. Johnson is going to get 3% if he is lucky, the other two won’t break 1%. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/52 "2016-10-25T23:16:30Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > I know. What I’m saying is that I don’t think they are freely available from the presidential campaigns this year. I’ve been in headquarters for both parties and they’re available, at least around here. I live in a Republican neighborhood and there is not 1 Trump sign up. My daughter lives in a heavily Democratic area and there is not 1 Clinton sign up. Any other year they’re all over the place in these neighborhoods. ---
**Author:** ![enipla](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/54ee81/32.png) [@enipla](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/enipla)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/53 "2016-10-25T23:26:32Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > I’ve been in headquarters for both parties and they’re available, at least around here. I live in a Republican neighborhood and there is not 1 Trump sign up. My daughter lives in a heavily Democratic area and there is not 1 Clinton sign up. > Any other year they’re all over the place in these neighborhoods. Colorado mountains here. I’ve seen some local signs for Sheriff and such. Not one Clinton or Trump sign. Nor any bumper stickers. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/54 "2016-10-25T23:36:07Z")
I live in a small village, and had to go to the Mike Derrick office in Glens Falls for a Clinton sign. I wanted 2 signs (one to wrap and save, and 1 to display), but they only had 1 to spare. They told me to be prepared to have it stolen on the first day. That hasn’t happened yet, maybe because I have it as close to the house as possible. I have seen maybe 6 Hillary/Kaine signs this election, and 3 or 4 Trump. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/55 "2016-10-26T12:36:31Z")
[http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-26/florida-poll) This poll actually shows him leading, which I think could be a bit of an outlier favoring Trump. However, the trends in Florida show that some late undecided voters could break for Trump. Whether it’s enough to change the outcome is very much unclear at this point. But what it does show is that Trump can still make the race interesting. I’m not convinced of a blowout victory yet. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/56 "2016-10-26T12:38:51Z")
The way the map is looking, Trump could win OH, PA, and FL and still manage to lose. The critical states just aren’t as well understood as usual. It could actually come down to Nevada, or NH, or NC, or even Utah. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/57 "2016-10-26T12:42:05Z")
I just noticed that the same poll has Rubio up by 10, so there might be a significant Republican skew to that poll. Rubio’s average lead is closer to 5. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/58 "2016-10-26T12:45:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The way the map is looking, Trump could win OH, PA, and FL and still manage to lose. The critical states just aren’t as well understood as usual. It could actually come down to Nevada, or NH, or NC, or even Utah. I really, really doubt Trump wins PA. To do that he needs to make significant inroads in the Greater Philadelphia area and he would then need to win by wider than normal margins in places like Pittsburgh, Scranton, and Allentown. The latter is doable but Hillary appears to be winning Philadelphia fairly easily, and not just in the projects. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/59 "2016-10-26T12:47:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I just noticed that the same poll has Rubio up by 10, so there might be a significant Republican skew to that poll. Rubio’s average lead is closer to 5. Silver previously commented on this poll (actually not done by Bloomberg but by a research firm). The poll apparently has a good rating and has predicted races accurately before. However, it was a slight outlier that favored Trump in August IIRC. The fact it’s an outlier doesn’t make it ‘wrong’ but it is something that could certainly later trend back toward HRC. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2016, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/60 "2016-10-26T13:01:32Z")
> [@galen\_ubal](#): > > Too late to edit, so something like this for the electoral college: 341 to 197 > [270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map](http://www.270towin.com/maps/xwgmX) > If you want a single hard number on the percentage of the popular vote: > Various Third-Party: 5% > Trump: 40% > Clinton: 55% Your popular vote numbers aren’t consistent with your EV prediction. Clinton has no hope of getting 55% of the vote, but let’s suppose she did win 55-40. If she actually beat Trump 55-40, you cannot construct a model where she ONLY gets 341 electoral votes. A 15-point margin is **gigantic** ; it would be the biggest since 1984. At that size of margin she would not only win every battleground state but would with Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Missouri, probably Utah… 425-450 EVs, at least. The election’s going to be much closer than people think. All the talk of Trump’s “Collapsing” you hear seems to be missing the indisputable fact that he isn’t collapsing. He has remained stable in the polls and has made up a little bit of ground. The movement in the polls is consistent with the entire campaign; he dives, then comes back, dives again, comes back. November 8 will not be a dive point; he’ll probably lose but not by much. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319.md?page=4)