# Presidential results prediction thread

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [October 22, 2016, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319 "2016-10-22T07:01:24Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 42

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**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\
**Post date:** [October 25, 2016, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/presidential-results-prediction-thread/769319/42 "2016-10-25T13:44:13Z")

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I think people are overstating the votes that the third parties will get, as I said in this earlier post.

> [@How much will the final aggregated polls miss the actual results?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/how-much-will-the-final-aggregated-polls-miss-the-actual-results/768298/21):
>
> The poll numbers for Clinton and Trump are not quite as variable as the poll numbers \*\*not \*\*for Clinton and Trump.
> 
> Right now, Johnson and Green are averaging about 9% in the polls. They will not get 9% of the actual votes. People want to support third parties in theory, which is what polls are, but when they actually get to the voting booth they vote for a major party. Additionally, about 8% are undecided. (RealClearPolitics four-way average as as now, noon on 10/12.) In October 2012, Obama and Romney were polling at about 92%. They actually gathered about 98%. The missing voters broke around 3 to 1 for Obama.
> 
> Where will those 17% go this year? Johnson and Green will get half of their current numbers, say 4% and 1% to be generous. Of the remaining 12%, another 3 to 1 split makes it 9% for Clinton and 3% for Trump. That adds up to 53% Clinton, 42% Trump. Is a 3 to 1 split too high? Possible, since that was for a sitting President. A more even split makes it 50% Clinton, 45% Trump. I think that’s a bit low since that merely leaves the spread where it is today, and it will clearly be higher.
> 
> I’m going with 52% Clinton, 43% Trump, 4% Johnson, 1% Green.

As of now, 10/25, 15% are not Clinton or Trump. That will continue to shrink.

Remember that 1% is about 1 million voters. Utah’s total vote is only 1 million. McMuffin will get less than half, probably less than a third, and a smattering elsewhere. He’s rounding error.

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