# Prize for winning the GOP nomination: becoming the answer to the trivia Q "Who'd Hillary beat?" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 16, 2015, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870 "2015-04-16T22:54:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/121 "2015-05-05T14:33:43Z")
> [@parkona\_driveway](#): > > My evidence of economic deterioration is the crappy GDP. The GDP that is currently a smidge under $18 trillion, that was at barely over $14 trillion when President Obama took office? \*That \*“crappy” GDP? 😕 Edited to add: I guess that’s also the GDP whose peak under Dubya was $14.7 trillion. ---
**Author:** ![parkona\_driveway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d26b3c/32.png) [@parkona\_driveway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/parkona_driveway)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/122 "2015-05-05T14:44:42Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Wrong again. The word “deteriorate” can refer to diminished quality, whereas you seem to insist that it can only connote a mathematical decrease. GDP growth has diminished sharply, with indications of a revised negative Q1 upcoming: > **[Actually, the US economy just shrank](https://www.businessinsider.com/march-trade-deficit-turned-q1-gdp-negative-2015-5)** > > It turns out the economy may have contracted again. ---
**Author:** ![parkona\_driveway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d26b3c/32.png) [@parkona\_driveway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/parkona_driveway)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/123 "2015-05-05T14:47:41Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > When President Obama took office in 2009 at the height of the recession, the annual budget deficit came in at 10.1 percent of gross domestic product – a level not seen since the end of World War II. In the five years since, the budget deficit has been sliced more than half. The current level of spending is historically elevated and unsustainable IMO. I don’t care which president is responsible. Reagan and W were both big spenders before Obama came along. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/124 "2015-05-05T14:50:05Z")
If slowing improvement is actually “deterioration”, what word do you use for what happened under the last Republican administration? It works much better if you start with the facts, not the conclusion. Try it sometime. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/125 "2015-05-05T14:53:35Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > It works much better if you start with the facts, not the conclusion. Try it sometime. LOL! But as Colbert famously reminded us, reality has a well-known liberal bias. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/126 "2015-05-05T14:54:10Z")
[GOP Establishment tries to figure out how to get the clown car onto the debate stage.](http://www.salon.com/2015/04/30/gops_nagging_clown_show_problem_how_does_it_trim_down_the_debate_roster/) ---
**Author:** ![parkona\_driveway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d26b3c/32.png) [@parkona\_driveway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/parkona_driveway)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/127 "2015-05-05T15:05:39Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > If slowing improvement is actually “deterioration”, what word do you use for what happened under the last Republican administration? You’re limiting me to one word? Catastrophe. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/128 "2015-05-05T15:07:17Z")
Yet you are thinking voters will gravitate back to that same party. ---
**Author:** ![parkona\_driveway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d26b3c/32.png) [@parkona\_driveway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/parkona_driveway)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/129 "2015-05-05T15:12:50Z")
No, but the consensus appears to be a 60% win probability for the Democrats, whereas I would reckon it to be more like 55%. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/130 "2015-05-05T15:26:07Z")
> [@parkona\_driveway](#): > > No, but the consensus appears to be a 60% win probability for the Democrats, whereas I would reckon it to be more like 55%. You are failing to account for the vig. If you do so and average everyone at that oddschecker link weighting them equally it yields… Democrats 56.4% Republicans 42.8% Independent 0.8% So your reckoning is pretty close to right on. ---
**Author:** ![parkona\_driveway](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d26b3c/32.png) [@parkona\_driveway](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/parkona_driveway)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2015, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/131 "2015-05-05T15:43:33Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > You are failing to account for the vig. Thanks :smack: I attempted to eyeball the adjustment, but apparently I need my eyeball checked ☹ ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2015, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/132 "2015-05-09T01:22:52Z")
No deterioration [this month.](http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/08/news/economy/april-jobs-report-economy-pick-up/) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 8:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/133 "2015-05-27T08:34:45Z")
More writing on the wall. This election will be a pro forma exercise. > **[Republicans’ 2016 math problem, explained in two charts](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/05/26/the-hard-demographic-truth-facing-republicans-in-2016-in-2-charts/)** > > The declining value in winning the white vote. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/134 "2015-05-27T14:43:07Z")
So you win 65% of the white vote. Bingo, easy win. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/135 "2015-05-27T14:53:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So you win 65% of the white vote. Bingo, easy win. Why not 70 or 80%? That would make it even easier. Or 100%? A definite win! I had no idea Republican strategizing was so simple! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/136 "2015-05-27T15:19:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So you win 65% of the white vote. Bingo, easy win. There isn’t enough race-baiting dogwhistling possible to make that happen anymore. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/137 "2015-05-27T17:25:35Z")
Because that’s the only reason whites would vote Republican. Got it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/138 "2015-05-27T17:40:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because that’s the only reason whites would vote Republican. Got it. Your post implied that getting 65% would be a simple task – I see no reason to believe why that is so. Reagan did it in 1984… is there a single Republican candidate even close to as charismatic and as good a campaigner as Reagan? I’m not saying it’s impossible, or that Hillary is a shoe-in (though I believe she’s a favorite at this point), but your post implied it was a trivial task. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/139 "2015-05-27T18:03:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Because that’s the only reason whites would vote Republican. Got it. Others being what, since you bring it up? If it’s an easy task, how do you propose going about it? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/140 "2015-05-27T18:09:12Z")
White voters have already been trending more Republican. You keep on pushing them in that direction with a focus on the middle class and families and by nominating candidates with middle class roots. Heck, we’ve got two or more in the field that are actually just middle class right now. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870.md?page=8)