# Prize for winning the GOP nomination: becoming the answer to the trivia Q "Who'd Hillary beat?" **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 16, 2015, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870 "2015-04-16T22:54:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/141 "2015-05-27T18:15:17Z")
And this “focus on the middle class and families” consists of, well, what? Nothing the party has actually stood for recently, you may note. And it works disproportionately well on whites because, why? They are more likely to be middle class and have families, or what? Yes, there’s a reason the Republicans have collected more white support in recent years, but that ain’t it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/142 "2015-05-27T18:19:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > White voters have already been trending more Republican. Cite? Let’s see what your definition of a “trend” is, since the numbers I’ve seen have shown the white vote for Republicans peaking in '84 and jumping around, down and up, since then. > [@](#): > > You keep on pushing them in that direction with a focus on the middle class and families and by nominating candidates with middle class roots. Heck, we’ve got two or more in the field that are actually just middle class right now. I would think “keep on pushing” would imply that Republicans have been already focusing on the middle class and families, and I’ve seen no evidence of this. But I’d love to see them try – big spending on infrastructure for jobs, helping families with college loans, helping families pay for health care… bring it on! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/143 "2015-05-27T18:42:37Z")
[This doesn’t include the 2014 elections](http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-doubling-down-on-white-voters-a-viable-strategy-for-the-republican-party/), but it does illustrate a longer-term trend. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2015, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/144 "2015-05-27T23:29:26Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Why not 70 or 80%? That would make it even easier. Or 100%? A definite win! > > I had no idea Republican strategizing was so simple! Literal LOL! > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > There isn’t enough race-baiting dogwhistling possible to make that happen anymore. Indeed. Outside the South (which Hillary doesn’t need), the voters most susceptible to those appeals are dying every day and being replaced by a younger electorate that is not so into it. I love BTW the pretzels \*\*adaher \*\*has to twist into to advance the notion that white voters are going to vote Republican on a level not seen in more than three decades (since master race baiter Reagan left the political stage), but it’s not going to have anything to do with any kind of racial appeals! Pffffft. If this ever comes to pass (which I very much doubt), I can guarantee you it will be for a very race-conscious reason of whites essentially not wanting to let nonwhites be in charge of the government. (I have a sneaking suspicion this is what \*\*adaher \*\*is banking on, but just doesn’t want to admit it.) Karl Rove, who is evil but an undeniably smart political strategist, says this call by some Republicans to just focus on squeezing more out of the white vote is [misguided and won’t work](http://www.rove.com/articles/480). (He also says Reagan only got 63% of the white vote in '84, not 65%.) And of course, even if this approach had enough juice in 2016 (which is beyond dubious), it gets more untenable with each cycle. In 2012, whites made up 63% of the population, still outnumbering nonwhites by nearly two-to-one. By 2044 (which may sound far away, but is the same span of time as between Reagan’s '84 sweep and Obama’s 2012 reelection victory), [whites will be outnumbered](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html) by racial minorities. And of course, this isn’t going to happen all at once that year: it will be an inexorable trend in the intervening cycles. The other problem with this approach is that the places Romney and McCain got that [boost in the white vote compared to Dubya](http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/11/the-mccain-belt/208968/) were not helpful in the Electoral College, because they amounted to running up the score in states they were winning already. Thus even in a scenario where the GOP manages to crank up the white vote enough to win the popular vote in 2016 (which, again, I find very unlikely), there’s a good chance that would just lead to one of those awkward elections we’ve had a few times in our history where the candidate who wins the popular vote still loses in the Electoral College. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2015, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/145 "2015-05-28T03:53:14Z")
The other angle is to point out the scenario that was only half gotten to in the linked article - the same fraction as G.W. Bush v Kerry (reasonable) AND a lackluster turnout of the non-White vote. Even assuming 2012 turnout, the Bush v Kerry spread “numbers don’t look as daunting – especially if the party nominates someone like Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush”. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2015, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/146 "2015-05-28T11:19:42Z")
But didn’t that section of the piece say this would only chisel away about a third of the margin Obama had over Romney? Anyway, I’ll acknowledge that the chance of a confluence like you’re talking about, and it being distributed in a way that works in the Electoral College and not just the popular vote, is a nonzero possibility. But a five percent chance seems high: maybe two percent. That’s not nothing, though: you couldn’t pay me any amount of money to take a 1 in 50 chance at Russian roulette for instance. But if this happens, I would predict that nonwhite sector of the electorate to rise up bigtime in 2020, after being shocked out of their complacency (and being a couple points bigger yet than in 2016). And then moving on into the Twenties, the victory the GOP eked out in 2016 will really look like a last gasp, unless the party moves quite a bit to the left. That’s definitely possible, although it sure looks to me like if they do, they will at a minimum send a lot of their most hard right base into withdrawing from the political process, or perhaps supporting a third party. (I could actually see an outside chance of a split into three relatively even parties, which is the only scenario–and a scary one–I can see a really hardcore right wing presidential candidate ever getting elected again in our lifetimes.) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/147 "2015-06-15T19:23:24Z")
Romney won white women by 14 points and still lost handily. Hillary is poised to win white women’s votes outright, which is check and mate. > **[Why Hillary Clinton Will Be Hard to Beat](https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-WB-55889)** > > Hillary Clinton is often at the center of controversy. But it would be a mistake to think this has undermined her candidacy, at least based on polling so far. Here are five charts showing why she remains formidable—and where she has potential... ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/148 "2015-06-15T20:09:52Z")
If she’s winning white women, then who is she losing among to be only ahead by 2-5 points? That’s an Obama 2012-level victory if it holds up, but if she’s beating Obama by 17-20 points among white women, who is she losing ground with? Are men going against her 70-30 or something? ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/149 "2015-06-15T20:51:03Z")
I believe they are referencing [this poll](http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20(2).pdf) from the end of April, since that is the most recent NBC/WSJ poll. However, the link doesn’t have the complete cross tab info that one would need to produce the charts in the linked blog. I assume the blogger has access to the complete information, but as such it looks like cherry picking to tell a good story. As such, I’m not willing to concede that the linked blog tells us much of anything. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/150 "2015-06-15T21:31:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If she’s winning white women, then who is she losing among to be only ahead by 2-5 points? That’s an Obama 2012-level victory if it holds up, but if she’s beating Obama by 17-20 points among white women, who is she losing ground with? Are men going against her 70-30 or something? It’s a good question, and your supposition seems highly plausible. She’s not doing quite as well as Obama did among ethnic minorities, and I’d be willing to bet that’s mainly due to male minorities. So she’s flipping a lot of moderate white women, and losing some male chauvinists who supported Obama. The friend who sent me this link opined that “there’s really no reason from here on out to nominate a white male ever again”, and he may be right. We had a good run. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/151 "2015-06-15T21:54:21Z")
[This](http://www.wsj.com/articles/clintons-negatives-rise-in-wsj-poll-but-democrats-stay-the-course-1430778624) may be the link needed. > [@WSJ May 4](#): > > In head-to-head matchups with four leading GOP candidates, the poll found Mrs. Clinton outpolled them among white women by 2 to 10 percentage points. > > In those matchups against four potential rivals, Mrs. Clinton topped Messrs. Bush and Rubio by 49% to 43%, and she topped Mr. Walker by 50% to 40%. The GOP candidate who came closest to Mrs. Clinton was Sen. Rand Paul, who trailed by 47%-44%. There is also [this Gallup poll](http://www.gallup.com/poll/182081/hillary-clinton-retains-strong-appeal-american-women.aspx) from March which gives her a net favorability of +8 among non-Hispanic White women … and indeed a net of -19 among non-Hispanic White men. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870/152 "2015-06-15T23:43:21Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > It’s a good question, and your supposition seems highly plausible. She’s not doing quite as well as Obama did among ethnic minorities, and I’d be willing to bet that’s mainly due to male minorities. So she’s flipping a lot of moderate white women, and losing some male chauvinists who supported Obama. > > The friend who sent me this link opined that “there’s really no reason from here on out to nominate a white male ever again”, and he may be right. We had a good run. 😉 We still haven’t elected either a Jewish or Italian President(at least not one with an Italian surname, don’t know if any had Italian blood or not), so there’s still some white guys left out. And we’ve only had one Catholic still, haven’t we? Given how many Catholics are in this country I think we should have another one of those guys too. An overtly atheist white male would be cool too. Or a gay white male. Or a little person. So see, still a lot of white guys that need their chance. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/prize-for-winning-the-gop-nomination-becoming-the-answer-to-the-trivia-q-whod-hillary-beat/717870.md?page=7)