# Probabilistic senate prediction competition final results

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [January 12, 2021, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379 "2021-01-12T22:59:27Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2021, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379/1 "2021-01-12T22:59:27Z")

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I almost forgot to post this thread.

In the six months leading up the election I created a thread for each month for people to predict the results of ‘swingable’ senate races.

Here are those threads…

[May thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/may-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/853889)  
[June thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/june-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/911809)  
[July thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/july-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/915863)  
[August thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/august-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/918906)  
[September thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/september-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/921279)  
[October thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/october-2020-probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition/923706)

The whole thing was wildly unpopular and I was the only participant in more than month, but there were seven participants total so I may as well post the results.

And the winner is… me.

| Name | Month | MSE |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Lance\_Turbo | October | 0.1576 |
| Hari\_Seldon | May | 0.1808 |
| Lance\_Turbo | May | 0.1813 |
| Lance\_Turbo | June | 0.2005 |
| JKellyMap | July | 0.2092 |
| Lance\_Turbo | August | 0.2161 |
| JKellyMap | June | 0.2189 |
| Lance\_Turbo | July | 0.2190 |
| Hari\_Seldon | June | 0.2198 |
| Dr.Strangelove | May | 0.2248 |
| Lance\_Turbo | September | 0.2281 |
| JKellyMap | August | 0.2299 |
| Calavera | May | 0.2308 |
| septimus | May | 0.2479 |
| Oredigger77 | May | 0.5385 |

Hari\_Seldon, with psychohistory doing the heavy lifting, took 2nd, and remarkably my forecast from way back in May finished 3rd.

Thanks to all who participated.

@Calavera  
@Dr.Strangelove  
@Hari_Seldon  
@JKellyMap  
@Lance_Turbo  
@Oredigger77  
@septimus

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**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2021, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379/2 "2021-01-12T23:07:59Z")

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Thanks for running this! Obviously the Senate election process has been quite the rollercoaster ride.

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**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2021, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379/3 "2021-01-12T23:11:23Z")

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Not last place. Woo!

That said, I’m not sure this enhances my opinion of prediction markets. Aside from **Oredigger77** , all of our error values were quite similar. And not monotonically decreasing in time (my stupid algorithm in May narrowly beat yours in September). It looks like one gets about 20% error no matter what method and data you use, within reason.

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**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\
**Post date:** [January 12, 2021, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probabilistic-senate-prediction-competition-final-results/930379/4 "2021-01-12T23:12:40Z")

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Senate polling was pretty bad this year in my opinion.

North Carolina and Maine stand out for being way off, but polling also showed that a lot of races would be competitive that didn’t end up being even close (IA, MT, KS, SC, and even KY).