# Probability of a global depression happening **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 14, 2020, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486 "2020-03-14T18:38:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/1 "2020-03-14T18:38:02Z")
I don’t know how bad this Corona virus is going to get- perhaps it could be the next Spanish flu. But I tend to think that it’s being exaggerated, not only in the US but all around the world. Certainly you can err on the side of caution, especially with the absurdly litigious nature of our society. But I really think we’re overreacting to this thing, most likely. If you look at the death rates for reasonably healthy people under the age of 50, they’re tiny. But I’m not here so much to discuss the Corona virus itself, but a potential economic crisis which the virus was the catalyst for. IMO, the virus could be cured and eradicated tomorrow, and that still wouldn’t save us from the coming recession, and I think there’s a greater than .500 probability that we’re heading into a global _depression._ The main problem isn’t the corona virus. If we had a fundamentally sound and healthy economy, we could weather the virus. The problem is that we’re currently in the largest economic _bubble_ in history. This ain’t no ordinary bubble, this is a colossal hyper debt bubble. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates artificially low for so long to “stimulate” the economy that it has led to all kinds of distortions in the market. The virus is merely the _pin_ which pricked the bubble. Nothing actually got solved after the last economic crisis. We tried to paper over a debt problem with even more debt. Far more debt. And because we never finished the last crisis, this next crisis may finish us. They may have to rename the “Great Depression” after this one. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/2 "2020-03-14T19:44:33Z")
We’re experiencing massive amounts of corporate debt and student loan debt. Both could collapse due to the virus. ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/3 "2020-03-14T20:09:09Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > We’re experiencing massive amounts of corporate debt and student loan debt. > > Both could collapse due to the virus. There’s oceans and mountains of debt everywhere. The whole economy is imploding because of it. Thanks to the central banks, everybody is leveraged to the hilt. Individuals have record debt and are living paycheck to paycheck, record auto debt, student loans, credit card debt, corporations have borrowed heavily to overpay for their stocks, the governments at all levels have record debts and deficits that are only going to get much larger, record trade deficits… everybody has been gorging on debt because the Federal Reserve made it so cheap to borrow. All this debt has made our economy incredibly vulnerable. If the Corona virus never happened it would have been something else that wrecked the global economy- the bigger the bubble the smaller the pin required to prick it. This isn’t going to be anything like 2008- that was just an institutional/banking crisis. This is going to be a currency crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/4 "2020-03-14T20:13:01Z")
I know this isn’t the main point of the thread, but… > [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > I don’t know how bad this Corona virus is going to get- perhaps it could be the next Spanish flu. But I tend to think that it’s being exaggerated, not only in the US but all around the world. Certainly you can err on the side of caution, especially with the absurdly litigious nature of our society. But I really think we’re overreacting to this thing, most likely. I’ve seen posts on Facebook saying that, if the precautions we’re currently taking have their intended effect, it’s going to look like we overreacted. Which will be a good thing. ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/5 "2020-03-15T22:19:12Z")
Well guys, I said that I thought the probability of a global depression was greater than .500- I change my mind. The probability of a global depression is approaching 1. Zero % interest and we dont even have March numbers yet. It is a full blown catastrophe. Good Lord this is like a nightmare. I knew this economic meltdown was coming, I knew that when it happened it would happen at lightning speed, but now that it’s finally here it all feels so…surreal to me. I’m deeply worried for the future of this nation. This nation may not even be recognizable a year from now. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/6 "2020-03-15T22:32:54Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > This nation may not even be recognizable a year from now. Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you envision when you say this? ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/7 "2020-03-15T22:37:15Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you envision when you say this? Semi or complete societal collapse. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/8 "2020-03-15T22:40:37Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > Semi or complete societal collapse. Cats and dogs sleeping together? ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/9 "2020-03-15T22:41:18Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > Semi or complete societal collapse. Like Mad Max? The Road? Which semi or complete societal collapse movie is the closest to you envisionings? ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/10 "2020-03-15T22:45:00Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > Well guys, I said that I thought the probability of a global depression was greater than .500- I change my mind. The probability of a global depression is approaching 1. For once you may be right. And nobody will want your gold. (You should have been stockpiling TP.) ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/11 "2020-03-15T22:45:30Z")
> [@QuickSilver](#): > > Cats and dogs sleeping together? More like civil unrest, riots, several hundred percent increases in violent crime, possibly martial law declared. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/12 "2020-03-15T22:46:53Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > Semi or complete societal collapse. So, increased freedom? You should be thilled. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/13 "2020-03-15T22:50:43Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > I know this isn’t the main point of the thread, but…I’ve seen posts on Facebook saying that, if the precautions we’re currently taking have their intended effect, it’s going to look like we overreacted. Which will be a good thing. The thing is, the steps we are taking to flatten the curve and not overload the healthcare system, all good things, are exactly the ones which will lead to a recession. A number of national chains have closed all their stores. Restaurant visits are down 35% nationwide, worse in places like Seattle and New York. Tourism, conventions, and entertainment are crashing. All that leads to job losses which leads to reduced consumption which leads to more job losses which leads to recession. The large amount of debt will make it even worse, as does crashing oil prices. We have only anecdotal data on job losses. Maybe the decline in stock futures today after the Fed cut is partially due to the market thinking the Fed has data on this, and it doesn’t look good. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/14 "2020-03-15T22:54:51Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > More like civil unrest, riots, several hundred percent increases in violent crime, possibly martial law declared. Oh, come on! You are talking like someone who doesn’t have enough ammunition. ---
**Author:** ![Marcus\_Flavius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a4c791/32.png) [@Marcus\_Flavius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marcus_Flavius)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/15 "2020-03-15T23:01:57Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > For once you may be right. And nobody will want your gold. (You should have been stockpiling TP.) I don’t have any gold anymore. I sold all of it to buy silver, which I believe has tremendously more upside. If you think no one wants gold and silver, here’s an email I received from an online bullion dealer I buy from > [@](#): > > Considering the truly astounding events of the past several days, we have some important updates to share with you. BOLD has experienced an incredible increase in order volume, many multiples over our typical sales both in number of orders and total order value. Our team is working very hard to handle the influx of orders as efficiently as possible; however, it will take time to get them all processed. We are putting all our internal resources towards meeting the challenge and delivering on our commitment to offer the best value and service in the industry. > > It is important to understand that the sudden demand for precious metals in the face of the severe crash of the financial markets has put an unprecedented strain on the supply side. Mints and other up-stream suppliers of the products we sell have to a large degree been cleaned out of everything they had on-hand. They are ramping up production as fast as possible to fill the gap in supply, but those efforts will take time. Inventory we have listed on the website is locked in by us, but if it is listed as Backordered, there is likely to be a shipping delay of anywhere from one to four weeks so patience is a virtue we will all be exercising together. > > Our buyers at BOLD have been very proactive during the past 48 hours in securing firm orders to replenish our inventory. We do expect delivery of these orders from distributors to begin arriving next week and continuing on throughout the next several weeks. Our shipping department will also be very proactive in managing the backlog of orders and communicating with our customers throughout the process. We are working on implementing some order tracking features on our website that will also help our customers keep informed of the expected ship dates of their orders. > > Please note that any order you have placed with us that is paid for according to our published payment policies is GOOD and your prices will NOT change. Delivery might be delayed longer than we would like, but you can rest assured that you WILL receive your order as soon as possible. > > In order to be as efficient as possible, we have decided to deploy all internal staff resources towards processing orders. This means that beginning Monday morning, we will not be answering the phones. While we will monitor voicemails and respond to them as needed, we strongly encourage you to contact us via our support email address ([support@boldpreciousmetals.com](mailto:support@boldpreciousmetals.com)) or live support chat instead of calling. We will respond to all support requests as quickly as we can. > > We will continue to source the best deals we can find and pass them along to you. In these market conditions, premiums tend to go up even as spot goes down. This means our cost to buy new inventory will increase as well, but we are doing our best to maintain our position as a low price leader. > > Finally, our prayers are with you and your family as we face the challenge of COVID-19 together. There’s about to be a massive run on the precious metals, I can feel it. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2020, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/16 "2020-03-15T23:55:07Z")
Ah. I see. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/17 "2020-03-16T00:31:00Z")
Gosh, a guy who sells you stuff wants to sell you stuff? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/18 "2020-03-16T01:10:31Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > I don’t have any gold anymore. I sold all of it to buy silver, which I believe has tremendously more upside. > > If you think no one wants gold and silver, here’s an email I received from an online bullion dealer I buy from What do they accept as payment for silver? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/19 "2020-03-16T01:25:40Z")
> [@Marcus\_Flavius](#): > > I don’t have any gold anymore. I sold all of it to buy silver, which I believe has tremendously more upside. The undead will steer clear of you. And yes, silver chainmail has more stopping power than soft gold chainmail. You’l be safe. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2020, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486/20 "2020-03-16T01:54:12Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > Gosh, a guy who sells you stuff wants to sell you stuff? I particularly liked this bit, “It is important to understand that the sudden demand for precious metals in the face of the severe crash of the financial markets has put an unprecedented strain on the supply side. Mints and other up-stream suppliers of the products we sell have to a large degree been cleaned out of everything they had on-hand.” [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-of-a-global-depression-happening/849486.md?page=2)