# Probability Question **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [February 2, 2015, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597 "2015-02-02T12:39:49Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/1 "2015-02-02T12:39:49Z")
So I was working last night when a customer told me that the New England Patriots were up 7 to nothing in the Super. Bowl. I heard nothing else until I was driving home. I turned on my car radio just in time to hear a touchdown had been scored to tie the game at 14 to 14. The game went into commercials before I heard who had scored that last touchdown. Disregarding what we know actually happened, what were the odds that Seattle was the last to score and tie the game? ---
**Author:** ![usar\_jag](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f0a364/32.png) [@usar\_jag](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usar_jag)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/2 "2015-02-02T12:46:10Z")
My initial thought is that it’s a 2/3rd probability that Seattle scored the tying touchdown/PAT. However, I’ll wait for the real statisticians to drop by and either confirm or ridicule me… ---
**Author:** ![Greg\_Charles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/839c29/32.png) [@Greg\_Charles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Greg_Charles)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/3 "2015-02-02T13:54:41Z")
2 in 3 sounds right to me. There were three possible scenarios, and Seattle would score last in two of them. I suppose for completeness, you’d have to consider other ways each team could have scored the seven points you missed, but I suspect the odds would come out the same. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/4 "2015-02-02T14:09:41Z")
> [@Greg\_Charles](#): > > 2 in 3 sounds right to me. There were three possible scenarios, and Seattle would score last in two of them. I suppose for completeness, you’d have to consider other ways each team could have scored the seven points you missed, but I suspect the odds would come out the same. Still, the team that scored the touchdown to tie would have either previously had 7 points (highly probable), 6 points (possible) or 8 points (very improbable). In the unlikely events, Seattle must be the team that scored. But it is most likely the touchdown was scored by a team that had 7 points, a total the Patriots were known to have already had. So it seems to me the likelihood is a little less than 2/3. ---
**Author:** ![flight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbce88/32.png) [@flight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flight)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/5 "2015-02-02T19:03:58Z")
Doesn’t that make the implicit assumption that each of those possibilities are equally likely? ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/6 "2015-02-02T21:25:24Z")
There are only two ways a team with 7 points can get to 14. Either a touchdown and extra point or two safeties and a field goal. The latter is extraordinarily unlikely. However, the team with zero points could have had two field goals and a touchdown with a two point conversion. There are also several scenarios involving a single safety that total 14. Therefore I posit that the probability of Seattle scoring the touchdown in question is ever so slightly less than 2 out of 3. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 2, 2015, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/711597/7 "2015-02-02T22:13:49Z")
If you knew New England had a 7-0 lead, there are only three ways the game could be tied 14-14 at the half: 1. New England was up 14-0, and Seattle scored two straight touchdows, 2. New ENgland was up 14-7, and Seattle scored a touchdown 3. Seattle was up 14-7 and New England scored a TD. Looks like a 2/3 chance Seattle scored last.