# Probability Question

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/853200>\
**Category:** Factual Questions\
**Created:** [May 5, 2020, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/853200 "2020-05-05T18:03:47Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 2\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/853200/41 "2020-05-07T12:44:58Z")

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Ah, yes, the year it’s most likely to happen _next_ is next year. You left off that key word before.

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**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\
**Post date:** [May 7, 2020, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/probability-question/853200/42 "2020-05-07T12:47:55Z")

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Of course, it all assumes the probability for any given year is independent of other years and that it doesn’t change over time.

Neither is likely to be true, but they are assumptions we have all been accepting for a number of reasons (including making the problem more tractable).

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