# Professions that will cease to exist in the future due to automation? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 11, 2015, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530 "2015-01-11T06:44:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/41 "2015-01-15T14:58:44Z")
Have you ever noticed that grocery stores advertise? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/42 "2015-01-15T15:03:40Z")
> [@Peanut\_Gallery](#): > > This is something I have been meaning to ask the Dope in ‘automated car’ threads for some time… Is truck driving going to succumb to the robots? I’m tempted to believe it, but can’t decide. I can see the actual driving-down-the-road part becoming almost fully automated, but there is more to it than that. There is a certain amount of service and supervision required. Even if the truck becomes completely self-driving and self-parking, are we going to allow trucks moving freight around with no human supervision/backup? Is the software going to secure loads onto flatbeds? Handle the customer interaction and transfer of products? Maybe all that is possible one day, but _how long will it be_ before humans can be removed from this industry? I have considered driving a truck as a backup career, and hope it sticks around at least 20 years more, in whatever form… > > I can see all of the driving professions becoming much more automated/assisted by bots, but not taking place without a human around at all. What sez the Dope? Well, here’s the thing: the driverless car and truck will very quickly become the sole kind of vehicle once it becomes as good as an ordinary driver. Driverless cars and trucks don’t get drunk, they don’t get sleep-deprived, they don’t have emotional issues that make them make stupid decisions. That alone will increase road safety by a HUGE factor. But there’s also this: the 85/15 rule: i.e., 15% of the drivers cause 85% of the accidents. Those 15% of drivers are the ones we all want off the roads, and with driverless cars and trucks, they will be off the roads. Those people make the advent of driverless cars and trucks inevitable once the technology reaches human-equivalent levels … and we’re almost there … ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/43 "2015-01-15T15:06:58Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Have you ever noticed that grocery stores advertise? Sure, but there’s no human being walking me through the store persuading me to buy this or that brand of bread or meat or veggie. I buy because I need the product, not because some grinning people person persuaded me to. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/44 "2015-01-15T15:14:08Z")
My position on automation is that 90 to 95 percent of human workers will become unemployable within 30 years or so. The software needs to replace most jobs do not require AI, it’s a matter of incremental improvements in most fields, not some transformative revolution. We’re already on the track to get there and moving faster every day. And given that most people will be unemployable, and unemployed … and I’m talking about YOU Dopers, not some mythical shlub … it’s time we started thinking about[Basic Incom](http://www.reddit.com/r/BasicIncome/)e, the next political Big Deal. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/45 "2015-01-15T15:44:51Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Sure, but there’s no human being walking me through the store persuading me to buy this or that brand of bread or meat or veggie. I buy because I need the product, not because some grinning people person persuaded me to. Right, but the grocery store has already “closed” the second you walk in the door. You’ve gone to buy groceries from them and not from their competitors. You’re not going to buy a house just because you’ve already walked through it. It’s a completely different sales process and your comparison doesn’t work. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/46 "2015-01-15T15:56:42Z")
> [@pullin](#): > > Food service and prep jobs. > > I have a bet going with one of my friends on which fast food restaurant will be the first to have an entirely robotic workforce (at least one shift). My money’s on Taco Bell, he’s betting on one of the donut places. Oh, it’ll be coffee. I’d almost guarantee it. Most everything about making a cup of coffee can be automated AND controlled to a finer degree than a human making it can even hope to come close to. Plus, most everything used in making a cup of coffee is a sort of liquid, except for the coffee beans/grounds, so they’re relatively easily dispensed and metered. I mean, it’s not hard to imagine that they could integrate a series of hoppers of coffee beans and reservoirs of milk, cream, sugar syrup, caramel syrup, chocolate syrup, etc… and basically grind a specific amount of beans on-demand, brew it on the spot, and add the accoutrements to make the drink in question, and serve it. Kind of like the old “coffee cup drops into the holder” vending machines, but more modern and sophisticated. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/47 "2015-01-15T16:09:31Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Right, but the grocery store has already “closed” the second you walk in the door. You’ve gone to buy groceries from them and not from their competitors. You’re not going to buy a house just because you’ve already walked through it. It’s a completely different sales process and your comparison doesn’t work. Still, there’s no human being involved at the grocery store. The job has been automated. And I think the notion that “it’s a completely different sales process” is sales talk for someone who wants to sell me an idea … which I’m not buying. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/48 "2015-01-15T16:16:17Z")
I have no idea what you’re saying now. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/49 "2015-01-15T16:37:24Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > My position on automation is that 90 to 95 percent of human workers will become unemployable within 30 years or so. The software needs to replace most jobs do not require AI, it’s a matter of incremental improvements in most fields, not some transformative revolution. We’re already on the track to get there and moving faster every day. > > And given that most people will be unemployable, and unemployed … and I’m talking about YOU Dopers, not some mythical shlub … it’s time we started thinking about Basic Income, the next political Big Deal. These paragraphs could have been written 100 years ago regarding the automation of farm work. And yet we still have lots of jobs. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/50 "2015-01-15T17:37:55Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > These paragraphs could have been written 100 years ago regarding the automation of farm work. And yet we still have lots of jobs. Yes, yes, I’ve heard the word “Luddite” before. Your analogy may have worked fifty years ago. But software has the ability to be adapted to almost any endeavor. It’s DIFFERENT from machines. If software and machinery can do 90 percent of the things humans can on a more cost-effective basis, they will replace 90 percent of humans. ---
**Author:** ![flight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/bbce88/32.png) [@flight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flight)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/51 "2015-01-15T17:49:46Z")
> [@Deeg](#): > > These paragraphs could have been written 100 years ago regarding the automation of farm work. And yet we still have lots of jobs. Actually, they would have been right. I had a hard time digging up the numbers, but if this [history of farming](https://www.agclassroom.org/gan/timeline/farmers_land.htm) is to be believed, the amount of farmers needed per acre has been reduced by about 94% in 100 years. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/52 "2015-01-15T17:58:10Z")
I don’t think that counts undocumented workers. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/53 "2015-01-15T18:00:09Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I don’t think that counts undocumented workers. Is that a profession that will cease to exist? ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/54 "2015-01-15T22:15:02Z")
Corprate travel agent. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/55 "2015-01-15T22:36:04Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Yes, yes, I’ve heard the word “Luddite” before. Your analogy may have worked fifty years ago. But software has the ability to be adapted to almost any endeavor. It’s DIFFERENT from machines. If software and machinery can do 90 percent of the things humans can on a more cost-effective basis, they will replace 90 percent of humans. I’ve heard the “it’s different this time” argument before. It’s always been wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/56 "2015-01-15T22:42:45Z")
> [@BMalion](#): > > Corprate travel agent. Not sure about that. I think it will just be brought more “in house”. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/57 "2015-01-15T23:01:44Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > Not sure about that. I think it will just be brought more “in house”. They already are at lot of places. IBM and Bank of America, that I know of. ---
**Author:** ![BMalion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e274bd/32.png) [@BMalion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BMalion)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/58 "2015-01-16T14:17:38Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > They already are at lot of places. IBM and Bank of America, that I know of. Before I retired, large companies were moving a lot of their travel to an online travel website that could only be accessed by employees. The reservation passed our inspection, then was issued. Domestic and basic international flights were handled this way, only complex itineraries would be handled by a human. We went from 100 employees to about 40 in my day. It is only a matter of time. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/59 "2015-01-16T15:51:43Z")
Taxi drivers [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/xGi6j2VrL0o/hqdefault.jpg "Total Recall Johnny Cab") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGi6j2VrL0o) ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [January 16, 2015, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/professions-that-will-cease-to-exist-in-the-future-due-to-automation/709530/60 "2015-01-16T16:36:45Z")
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